/Issued 5:02 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 17, 2018/
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-17-2018
Thursday is still shaping up to be a mild day across the northern Plains and upper Midwest!
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Wow! We haven’t seen this much sun over such a large area in a long time!
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 10-17-2018
Precipitation Anomaly Forecast valid thru November 2, 2018.
Yellow-Brown colors=Below normal precipitation
Green colors=Above normal precipitation
Starting to see some signs per long range model data of a slightly wetter pattern redeveloping toward the end of the month for the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, and this could include some snow as well depending on temperatures.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-17-2018
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 10-17-2018
Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Weather Synopsis
A breezy and cool day but with lots of sun, and that’s something we haven’t had much of lately. High pressure of 1032mb was over eastern Nebraska with strong warm air advection spilling SE into the upper Midwest by way of Saskatchewan and Manitoba province. 5 PM 850mb temperatures ranged from +12C in south-central Saskatchewan province to -10C in far northeast Minnesota. High temperatures in our area today ranged from the mid 30s to mid 40s which is roughly 5-15 degrees colder than normal for October 17.
Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
[Tonight]
A very dry airmass covered the Northland this afternoon with dew points only in the single digits and teens, this combined with mainly clear skies tonight could cause temperatures to fall quite a bit, but offsetting this is the warm air advection approaching from the NW along with a wind shift to the SW which will occur later in the night, so lows tonight will likely be in the 20s to lower 30s, but a few teens are possible in far northeast Minnesota.
[Thursday]
Should be another mainly sunny day in our area with gusty SW winds. A warm front moves through Thursday morning with the entire Northland in the warm sector of a low pressure system for Thursday afternoon with 850mb temperatures climbing to around +12C. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, warmest day we’ve had since October 3 (~2 weeks ago!) A cold front approaches from the NW late Thursday night which could bring a few rain showers to parts of the area.
[Friday]
Temperatures will cool off a bit on Friday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. One cold front exits to the SE with a secondary cold front approaching from the NW Friday night, this second front will be accompanied by a vigorous vort max which will likely bring some snow showers or a rain-snow mix to the Northland mainly from Friday night into Saturday morning.
Note: Highs Saturday and Sunday will return to well below average levels with temps in the 30s to around 40 degrees, lows Sunday morning in the teens and 20s!
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 18
High: 51
Low: 34
Sunrise Thursday: 7:31 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 6:16 PM CDT
Tim