/Issued 5:01 PM CDT, Thursday, October 18, 2018/
High of 66 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota today (Airport location)
•Today’s high of 66 F is the warmest temp so far this month
•Warmest temperature since September 24 (70 F) (About 3 weeks ago)
•First above average high temp since October 3 (About 2 weeks ago)
18z NAM model 10-18-2018
500mb Vorticity Forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM Saturday
A couple pieces of energy passing through the upper Midwest through Saturday morning, the strongest of which moves through our area late Friday night-early Saturday morning.
A few rain showers are possible with tonight’s energy/lift, then a better chance for rain/snow arrives Friday night as the stronger piece of energy/better lift moves SE across our area.
18z NAM 3km model 10-18-2018
Simulated Radar forecast valid from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM Saturday
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-18-2018
…Climate Data for October 17, 2018…
Tied for 4th coldest minimum temperature on record for October 17 with a low on Wednesday of 21 degrees. The record low for October 17 is 17 degrees set in 1939, tied in 1976.
Tied for 5th coldest minimum temperature on record for October 17 with a low on Wednesday of 20 degrees. The record low for October 17 is 14 degrees set in 1952.
A spectacular fall day with abundant sunshine, gusty/mild SW winds with highs in the mid 60s to the low 70s which is above average by roughly 15 degrees! A classic setup for us to get warm was in place today with low pressure near the Manitoba-Ontario province border with high pressure over the Ohio Valley — Southwest flow occurred between these two features today with 850mb temperatures rising to around +12C, and with deep mixing in place, temperatures were able to warm to well above average levels for mid October.
Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Cold front approaches from the NW which will lead to partly to mostly cloudy in our area tonight with a chance for a few showers mainly in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. It’ll be a mild night with lows generally in the mid 40s to low 50s.
One cold front exits to our SE by midday, but a secondary cold front moves through the Northland late Friday night, and this front will be accompanied by a rather strong vort max which digs S/SE out of western Ontario province — A few spotty light rain showers are possible during the day Friday but most of us stay dry, then will see a better chance for some precipitation Friday night as that vort max and secondary cold front pushes through the area. A colder airmass returns to the Northland Friday night which will result in rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers during the night with a light snowfall accumulation possible in some parts of the area by dawn Saturday. Highs Friday won’t be too bad, near to slightly above average although not as warm as it was on Thursday, highs Thursday will range from the upper 40s in far northeast Minnesota to the mid 50s to around 60 degrees in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Note: Wind will be an issue through most of the weekend with changing wind directions. Mostly SW winds tonight, then shifting from SW to NW on Friday. NW winds continue Friday night and Saturday, shifting back to the SW on Sunday. Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 19
Sunrise Friday: 7:32 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 6:14 PM CDT