/Issued 5:29 PM CDT, Friday, October 19, 2018/
12z European Ensemble model 10-19-2018
Goes-16 Lower Level water vapor satellite loop from Friday, October 19, 2018.
A potent disturbance is heading S/SE across northern into central Manitoba province this afternoon, this feature will continue on its S/SE track through Saturday as it passes through the Northland late tonight-Saturday morning. Expect some brief heavier bursts of snow early Saturday morning as this system moves through.
18z NAM-Nest model 10-19-2018
Simulated Radar forecast from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM Saturday.
…Climate Data for October 18, 2018…
4th highest maximum temperature on record for October 18 with a high on Thursday of 73 degrees. The record high for October 18 is 84 degrees set in 1961.
Tied for 4th lowest minimum temperature on record for October 18 with a low on Thursday of 20 degrees. The record low for October 18 is 15 degrees set in 1972, tied in 1992.
International Falls, Minnesota
5th highest maximum temperature on record for October 18 with a high on Thursday of 70 degrees. Record high for October 18 is 81 degrees set in 1910.
5th lowest minimum temperature on record for October 18 with a low on Thursday of 21 degrees. Record low for October 18 is 16 degrees set in 1948, tied in 1972.
One last mild day before a cold slap occurs on Saturday. Gusty west or northwest winds occurred today in the 15 to 30 mph range with gusts to 40 mph! Note: Peak wind gust of 41 mph at the Duluth Airport today, and 37 mph at International Falls. Temperatures stayed on the mild side, however, with highs today generally in the 50s to lower 60s. We had a mix of sun and clouds with a few spotty showers moving SE across parts of northeast Minnesota this afternoon.
One cold front moved through earlier today, but a secondary cold front moves through tonight accompanied by a strong vort max — Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight with scattered rain showers which will change to snow showers and flurries from NW-SE overnight. Some of these snow showers could be heavy at times early Saturday morning with potential for a coating to an inch of snow for some of us by dawn.
Will see quite a temperature change tonight with late afternoon 850mb temperatures of 0 to +4C across the Northland, but by Saturday afternoon, 850mb temps crash to between -10 and -15C, that is very impressive for mid October!
Lows tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Saturday mainly in the 30s.
Snow showers or flurries lingering early in the day followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies with another day of gusty winds which will be out of the NW at 15 to 30 mph. Note: Temperatures on Saturday will be some 30-40 degrees colder compared to the highs that we had Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures modify on Sunday with highs getting back into the 40s, perhaps near 50 degrees in a few locations. 850mb temps will also rebound to around +4C. Looks dry on Sunday with some sunshine, this despite the fact that will have another fast moving low pressure system with its warm front and cold front passing through the upper Midwest.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 20
Sunrise Saturday: 7:34 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 6:13 PM CDT