/Issued 5:00 PM CDT, Monday, October 22, 2018/
Certainly looks like a more active weather pattern setting up across the Northland late this week into next week with some rain and possibly some snow at times.
A few showers moving S-SE across far northeast Minnesota and western Lake Superior late this Monday afternoon.
12z GEFS model 10-22-2018
Temperature Anomaly forecast valid thru November 7, 2018. Seeing some signs per long range model data for a pattern change as we head into early November. Below average temperatures over the southern/eastern U.S. could be replaced by warmer/above average temperatures, while the opposite occurs out west, where it starts above average, then trends below average. The jet stream pattern changing from NW flow to west or southwest flow would be the reason behind this. Could be setting up for a stormier weather pattern across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes for the last few days of October and or during the first couple days of November. Stay tuned!
Note: Blue colors represent below average temperatures; Orange/red colors represent above average temperatures.
The severe weather season has pretty much wrapped up for Minnesota and Wisconsin — Here are the numbers for 2018.
Tornadoes: 36 (Red dots on map) Average is 36 (1985-2014 Climate Period)
Hail: 173 (Green dots on map)
Wind: 356 (Blue dots on map)
Total of 565 severe weather reports in 2018.
Note: Severe weather reports were down this year compared to last year in Minnesota, however there were a few more wind reports this year compared to last year — 2017 stats included 41 tornadoes, 261 reports of hail and 352 reports of wind (Total of 654 severe weather reports in 2017)
Tornadoes: 35 (Red dots on map) Average is 22 (1985-2014 Climate Period)
Hail: 82 (Green dots on map)
Wind: 269 (Blue dots on map)
Total of 386 severe weather reports in 2018.
Note: There were more tornado reports this year compared to last year in Wisconsin, but overall the number of severe weather reports were less this year compared to last year. 2017 stats included 28 tornadoes, 157 reports of hail and 401 reports of wind (Total of 586 severe weather reports)
…Climate Data for October 21, 2018…
Tied for 5th lowest minimum temperature on record for October 21 with a low on Sunday of 22 degrees. The record low temperature for October 21 is 16 degrees set in 1930.
Tied for 5th lowest minimum temperature on record for October 21 with a low on Sunday of 22 degrees. The record low temperature for October 21 is 12 degrees set in 1930.
Note: So far this month there have been 3997 warm temperature records vs. 3720 cold temperature records across the U.S. Also 541 daily snowfall records have been broken so far this month. Source: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/
Lots of sunshine through early this afternoon but clouds have been increasing from N-S due to another shot of cold air advection which covered the Northland late this afternoon with 850mb temperatures of 0 to -4C. Highs today ranged from the low to mid 50s in east-central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and near Lake Superior which is near to slightly above average for October 22. Cooler up north with highs in the 40s. Gusty winds across the entire area today with west or northwest winds from 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts!
Forecast for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
[Tonight through Wednesday]
High pressure builds SE out of Saskatchewan province through midweek, this high will move off to our east on Wednesday. A few spotty rain and snow showers tonight in far northeast Minnesota shifting to the South Shore of Lake Superior on Tuesday where some light lake effect showers could occur with 850mb temp to -8C, water temp around +6C along with a favorable N-NW fetch off Lake Superior to generate some lake effect snow or rain showers, but not looking at much in the way of snowfall accumulation on Tuesday. Mainly dry for Wednesday the way it looks now.
Lows tonight in the upper 20s to middle 30s, highs Tuesday in the mid 30s to mid 40s, highs Wednesday in the low 40s to low 50s, cooler in far northeast Minnesota, winds shift to the S-SE on Wednesday which leads to slightly milder temperatures except along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Will have partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area tonight and a mix of sun/clouds Tuesday with more clouds farther northeast and more sun farther west.
A slow moving low pressure system will take aim at the Northland late this week as low pressure approaches from the W-NW. This system will bring some rain to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin starting on Thursday with some rain lingering possibly through the entire weekend! Temperatures look warm enough for the precipitation to remain as rain, but there could be enough cold air that filters into northwest parts of our area for a rain-snow mix sometime over the weekend. This looks to be the start of a more active pattern for the upper Midwest as more systems are lined up which may impact parts of the area into early November per model guidance.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 23
High: 48 F
Low: 33 F
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:38 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 6:07 PM CDT