Here’s my snowfall forecast for the South Shore
Here’s my snowfall forecast for the North Shore
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, November 8, 2018
A vigorous trough digging into the northern Plains and upper Midwest tonight.
Low pressure lifting NE out of the Ohio Valley with a surface trough extending NW of that low to Lake Superior combined with possible meso-low formations over Lake Superior will lead to a round of potentially heavy lake effect snowfall on Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Wisconsin and upper Michigan.
12z GEFS model 11-8-2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid thru November 24, 2018.
Still noticing some big differences in the pattern per long range model guidance for mid to late month. GEFS model shown below keeps the below average temperatures going thru late month, although the departures from average aren’t as extreme as they will be thru the middle of next week.
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 11-8-2018
The EPS model continues to show milder, above average temperatures taking over starting next weekend, quite a bit different from the GEFS model.
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Very cold! Mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow showers and flurries across the area today with highs mainly 20s.
RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows a strong mid/upper level trough digging S/SE across the northern Plains with 12-hour 500mb height falls up to 90 meters. An early season arctic airmass covered the Northland with 850mb temps of -14 to -16C!
Light snow and flurries will continue over parts of the Northland through Friday evening with periods of heavier snow developing especially on Friday along portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin. There could also be some enhancement to the snow in far northeast Minnesota on Friday, mainly over Cook County.
Concerning the South Shore lake effect snow — There will be plenty of instability in place with 850mb temperatures of -10 to -15C while lake water temps are sitting at around +5C. Favorable north to northwest flow over Lake Superior combined with the large difference between 850mb temps and surface temps will create a favorable environment for periods of heavy lake effect snow Friday and Friday evening over parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior.
Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s, possibly a few single digits in western areas if skies clear out enough. Highs Friday in the 20s.
It continues to look like will finally see at least a few hours of sunshine on Saturday, but a clipper approaching from the NW will cause clouds to increase Saturday afternoon followed by some light snow for Saturday night-Sunday.
Cold temperatures persist into at least early next week.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 9
Sunrise Friday: 7:03 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:42 PM CST