18z NAM model 11-11-2018
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 11-11-2018
850mb Temperature Forecast valid from November 12 thru 21 — Still a very cold pattern for our area thru Tuesday, then a brief warm up expected for midweek, followed by another blast of very cold air for next weekend. What occurs after next weekend is still a bit uncertain, although if you go with the Euro solution, then milder temps would return after November 19.
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 11-11-2018
Still seeing differences in the long range ensemble models when it comes to temperatures for Thanksgiving week — Euro ensemble continues to be the milder solution.
Will be interesting to see which model ends up being right.
12z GEFS model 11-11-2018
GEFS model has been the cooler solution for Thanksgiving week, and today’s 12z run hasn’t changed much.
Temperature departure map for the week of November 4, 2018 — All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin had an average temperature that was below normal last week, greatest departures from normal represented by the blue and purple colors on map.
Precipitation departure map for the week of November 4, 2018 — Above average precipitation last week in northeast and east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin with below average precipitation in northern Minnesota represented by the yellow color on map.
Note: A few photos of the snowfall that occurred in Duluth, Minnesota Saturday night-Sunday morning, November 10-11, 2018.
Pictures from the Miller Creek area in the Lincoln Park neighborhood, Duluth, Minnesota.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
November 4-10, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
11/4: 40 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/5: 39 F/-3 degrees below normal
11/6: 39 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/7: 33 F/-7 degrees below normal
11/8: 24 F/-16 degrees below normal
11/9: 24 F/-15 degrees below normal
11/10: 20 F/-19 degrees below normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
11/4: 33 F/+5 degrees above normal
11/5: 35 F/+8 degrees above normal
11/6: 31 F/+4 degrees above normal
11/7: 24 F/-3 degrees below normal
11/8: 20 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/9: 13 F/-13 degrees below normal
11/10: 6 F/-19 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of November 4: 27.2 degrees (-6.2 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.73 inches
Normal: 0.53 inches
Departure: +0.20 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of November 4, 2018
Temperature: 28.5 degrees
Departure: -7.3 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.91 inches
Departure: +0.50 inches above normal
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•6 days with snowfall of at least 0.1 inch so far this month — Average for November is 9 days.
•At least a trace of snowfall on all but 2 days so far this month, and today (Nov 11) marks the 8th consecutive day with at least a trace of snowfall, but our snowfall total hasn’t been too impressive with 5.6 inches of snow since November 4, just little snow events so far.
Snowfall Reports for November 10-11, 2018
3 WSW Lutsen, MN: 4.4 inch
7 WSW Pine River, MN: 3.4 inch
Silver Bay, MN: 3.3 inch
3 NNW Rice Lake, MN: 3.0 inch
5 SSE Libby, MN: 3.0 inch
1 WSW Two Harbors, MN: 3.0 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 2.8 inch
7 SSW Grand Rapids, MN: 2.5 inch
1 E Nisswa, MN: 2.5 inch
1 NE Esko, MN: 2.5 inch
3 N Butternut, WI: 2.5 inch
6 E Island Lake, MN: 2.3 inch
5 NW Walker, MN: 2.1 inch
2 NW Gary New Duluth, MN: 2.0 inch
11 W Drummond, WI: 2.0 inch
Lake Nebagamon, WI: 2.0 inch
Duluth Airport: 1.8 inch
3 SSW Sandstone, MN: 1.8 inch
3 ENE Holyoke, MN: 1.8 inch
Grantsburg, WI: 1.7 inch
Wrenshall, MN: 1.6 inch
Brainerd, MN: 1.5 inch
7 ESE Superior, WI: 1.4 inch
Climate Summary for November 10, 2018
Coldest high temperature on record set for November 10 with a high on Saturday of 22 degrees. The previous coldest high temp on record for November 10 was 24 degrees set in 1926, tied in 1950, 1979, 1986 and 2017.
Tied for 2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for November 10 with a high on Saturday of 21 degrees. The coldest high temp on record for November 10 is 20 degrees set in 1926.
2nd snowiest November 10 on record with 1.5 inches of snow on Saturday. The snowiest November 10 on record occurred in 1989 with 2.0 inches of snow.
Tied for 3rd lowest maximum temperature on record for November 10 with a high on Saturday of 18 degrees. The coldest high temp on record for November 10 is 12 degrees set in 1986.
5th lowest minimum temperature on record for November 10 with a low on Saturday of 4 degrees. The record low for November 10 is -12 degrees set in 2017.
4th lowest maximum temperature on record for November 10 with a high on Saturday of 20 degrees. The coldest high temp on record for November 10 is 16 degrees set in 1986.
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
An area of low pressure has moved out over Lake Superior this afternoon but clouds along with light snow showers and flurries continued to affect the area today behind this area of low pressure. There has been a few breaks in the clouds allowing for some sun, but for most of us it’s been a mostly cloudy day. Highs today mainly in the low to mid 20s, few spots near Lake Superior getting into the upper 20s, but all of us had another day with below average highs.
No big storms expected for this week, but occasional flurries and snow showers will linger through Monday with some snow accumulation possible near some of the larger inland lakes across the Northland, but the majority of us won’t be seeing any snow accumulation during the next 24 hours.
Sky conditions will vary between mostly cloudy to partly cloudy so we should see at least a little bit of sunshine at times on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
A reinforcing shot of cold/early season arctic air moves over the area through Tuesday with 850mb temps this Sunday afternoon of around -12C, falling to -15 to -20C for Monday and Tuesday.
Will get a nice shot of warm air advection on Wednesday as 850mb temps climb to +4 to +8C!
Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower teens to lower 20s, possibly a few single digits if skies clear out enough. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the upper teens to middle 20s.
Highs Wednesday and Thursday will finally warm back toward average to a little above average with highs both days forecast to be in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Duluth, Minnesota Normals for November 12
Sunrise Monday: 7:07 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:38 PM CST