Here’s my snowfall forecast for tonight through Monday
For Duluth and Superior — 4 to 6 inches of snow, low chance we could get more than 6 inches of snow.
Warnings and advisories in effect for southern portions of the Northland ahead of the next winter storm which will affect the area late tonight through Monday. Note: Additional advisories may be needed for the North Shore of Lake Superior, and possibly for the Iron Range as well.
Various winter weather headlines are in effect across parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest with patchy blizzard conditions possible Monday across the black outlined area on map.
18z NAM-WRF model 12-30-18
Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM Sunday evening to Midnight Monday night.
Snow (blue on map) spreads E-NE across the Northland this evening thru early Monday morning. The snow will taper off from NW-SE later Monday afternoon but lake effect snow will likely continue into Monday night along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
12z European computer model 12-30-18
Note: Wind chill headlines will likely be needed for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Monday night, and possibly for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperature departure map for the week of December 23 — Another warm week across the Northland with average temperatures running anywhere from 2 to nearly 10 degrees above normal.
Precipitation departure map for the week of December 23 — Precipitation totals were well above normal last week thanks to the major storm that hit the area late last week.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
December 23-29, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
12/23: 27 F/+7 degrees above normal
12/24: 25 F/+5 degrees above normal
12/25: 26 F/+6 degrees above normal
12/26: 29 F/+9 degrees above normal
12/27: 34 F/+14 degrees above normal
12/28: 28 F/+8 degrees above normal
12/29: 11 F/-8 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
12/23: 17 F/+12 degrees above normal
12/24: 12 F/+8 degrees above normal
12/25: 14 F/+10 degrees above normal
12/26: 14 F/+10 degrees above normal
12/27: 28 F/+24 degrees above normal
12/28: -4 F/-7 degrees below normal
12/29: -9 F/-12 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of Dec 23: 18.0 degrees (+6.2 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 1.22 inches
Normal: 0.27 inches
Departure: +0.95 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of December 23
Temperature: 20.0 degrees
Departure: +6.4 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 1.03 inches
Departure: +0.84 inches above normal
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
*Only 6 days so far this month where the average temperature was either below normal or normal, all the other days so far this month have been above normal or ~80% of them.
*Average temperature of 1 degree on December 29 was the first time since December 8 where the average temperature was below normal (3 weeks ago!)
*2 subzero nights so far this month, average for December is 10 subzero nights.
Link to Road Conditions
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts
Storm timeline for Duluth and Superior
•Flurries or a bit of light snow is possible this Sunday evening, little or no accumulation.
•Snow becomes steadier overnight, especially after Midnight.
•Snow continues on Monday. Heaviest snowfall is expected to occur during the morning and early afternoon hours.
•Snow tapers to light snow and flurries mid or late Monday afternoon. Snow ends Monday evening.
•Snowfall storm totals from 4 to around 6 inches are possible with locally higher amounts.
•Expect roads to be snow covered and slippery on Monday, including for the morning and evening commutes.
•Winds late tonight and Monday — North to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Some blowing snow is likely.
Note: Bitter cold arctic air arrives Monday night, and this frigid airmass will be over the area through Wednesday.