12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 12-7-2018
Note: I think there is a chance that some locations in the Northland make a run at 40 degrees on a few days next week.
Here’s the snow depth map for Minnesota as of December 6, 2018. Poor snow depths across the majority of Minnesota here in early December, and we won’t be adding to these snow depths anytime soon.
12z GEFS model 12-7-2018
It looks pretty dry around here thru at least early next week, but after that maybe a slightly more active weather pattern which could lead to a few snow events leading up to a few days before Christmas (Dec 13-23 time frame)
Note: I wouldn’t count on a major winter storm hitting our area anytime soon due to the split flow that is in place which has kept all the big storms well south/east of our area, and the chances for that to change look pretty low for the rest of this month, but maybe, just maybe we can sneak in a couple systems from the west or perhaps an inverted trough type setup to give us at least a little bit of snow before Christmas.
Note: Past December snowfall totals for Duluth, Minnesota
Note: Normal December snowfall is 17.7 inches (1981-2010 climate period)
2000: 19.2 inches
2001: 7.3 inches
2002: 3.4 inches (13th least snowiest Dec in station history)
2003: 8.4 inches
2004: 17.3 inches
2005: 34.5 inches (8th snowiest Dec in station history)
2006: 10.1 inches
2007: 35.4 inches (7th snowiest Dec in station history)
2008: 37.1 inches (6th snowiest Dec in station history)
2009: 33.4 inches (9th snowiest Dec in station history)
2010: 18.1 inches
2011: 8.1 inches
2012: 13.2 inches
2013: 39.9 inches (3rd snowiest Dec in station history)
2014: 8.6 inches
2015: 24.6 inches (12th snowiest Dec in station history)
2016: 21.3 inches
2017: 13.4 inches
2018: 1.0 inch (thru the 7th)
•Snowiest December in station history was in 1950 with 44.3 inches of snow; Least snowiest December was in 1905 with 0.9 inches of snow.
•Over 30 inches of snowfall in three Decembers in a row (2007, 2008 and 2009) Epic!
•Dating back to 2000 there have been 5 Decembers that have ranked in the top 10 for most snowfall, most recent was December 2013 with nearly 40 inches of snow!
Low Temperature reports from Friday morning, Dec 7, 2018
5 E Seagull Lake, MN: -17 F
Brimson, MN: -16 F
Babbitt, MN: -14 F
Crane Lake, MN: -13 F
Togo, MN: -13 F
Cotton, MN: -13 F
Embarrass, MN: -13 F
25 E Ely, MN: -13 F
3 E Orr, MN: -12 F
Eveleth, MN: -12 F
International Falls, MN: -11 F
Ely, MN: -11 F
Hibbing, MN: -10 F
4 W Clam Lake, WI: -10 F
Grand Marais Airport: -9 F
Bigfork, MN: -9 F
Cook, MN: -9 F
Glidden, WI: -9 F
Floodwood, MN: -7 F
Orr, MN: -6 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -6 F
Longville, MN: -6 F
Butternut, WI: -6 F
4 SSE South Range, WI: -5 F
Solon Springs, WI: -4 F
Siren, WI: -4 F
Winter, WI: -4 F
Ashland, WI: -2 F
Two Harbors, MN: -2 F
Grand Marais, MN: -1 F
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A few flurries in parts of the area today otherwise skies were mostly cloudy to partly sunny with highs in the mid teens to mid 20s.
RAP model analysis from late Friday afternoon showed a NW flow aloft over the upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures were in the -12 to -16C range across the Northland.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies through Sunday. Could be a few snow flurries around the area tonight, and again Saturday night-Sunday but no accumulation is expected.
Lows tonight in the single digits below to teens above zero with highs on Saturday in the 20s. Highs Sunday in the 20s to around 30 degrees. Monday’s highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
850mb temperatures will also be moderating thru early next week. Friday afternoon H85 temps ranged from -15 to -18C, those will warm to -3 to -6C Saturday afternoon, and to 0 to +2C for Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 8
Sunrise Saturday: 7:41 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:20 PM CST