Source: https://www.ecmwf.int
12z European Model (ECMWF) 12-11-18
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
22z HRRR model 12-11-18
Simulated radar forecast thru late Wednesday morning (10 AM)
Blue=Snow
Pink or purple colors=Mixed precipitation
Most of the precipitation looks to remain over northwest Minnesota and over south-central Wisconsin through Wednesday morning, but there could be some patchy flurries or freezing drizzle/fog that could impact portions of the Northland as well.
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com/
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday, December 11, 2018.
A pretty nice looking system moving through the northern Plains and upper Midwest tonight but it doesn’t have very much moisture to work with.
Source: https://www.pca.state.mn.us
Air Quality Alert in effect until 6 PM CST Thursday, December 13 for portions of central Minnesota including the Twin Cities Metro area (Orange shaded area on map)
Note: More info can be found at this link https://www.pca.state.mn.us/featured/air-quality-alert-tuesday-december-11-through-thursday-december-13
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 12-11-18
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 12-11-18
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z GEFS model 12-11-18
How snow less has it been so far this month? Duluth, Minnesota has only recorded 1 inch of snow so far this month, while International Falls hasn’t even hit the 1 inch mark, with just 0.8 inches of snow thru December 11! Both totals are running well below normal for December.
Perhaps a little snowier weather pattern developing in the long range, but still doesn’t look like any major winter storms at the moment.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
More of the same! Heavy morning frost along with areas of freezing fog followed by partly to mostly cloudy and hazy sky conditions during the afternoon. It’s a very stagnant airmass right now with no real change expected anytime soon. Highs today were a little cooler compared to Monday with highs on this Tuesday mainly in the 20s to around 30 degrees which is still a few degrees above normal for December 11.
RAP model analysis from 22z shows a mid/upper level trough over the northern Plains with a SW flow aloft ahead of that trough. 850mb temperatures at 5 PM Tuesday ranged from +8C at Des Moines, Iowa to -2C at Grand Marais, Minnesota.
Areas of freezing fog, freezing drizzle and snow flurries are expected across the Northland tonight into Wednesday morning, some roads could become slick so use caution if you have travel plans.
Low pressure will sail well to our SE through Wednesday with some more energy eventually washing out as it moves east out of the northern Plains tonight. Both of those features will produce some light snow or a mix of precipitation types tonight and Wednesday morning in northwest Minnesota and across central-southern Wisconsin.
Lows tonight will mainly be in the teens and 20s with highs on Wednesday in the 20s to lower 30s.
A brief burst of light snow is possible across parts of the Northland Wednesday night/Thursday morning as a trough of low pressure cruises through the upper Midwest. Snow amounts should remain under an inch for those that see snow.
Much warmer temperatures are still expected this weekend with daytime highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid 30s to low-mid 40s. Note: Some locations in the Northland could be close to record warmth in either high or low temps this weekend.
Still seeing signs of a pattern change taking place later this month, most likely in the December 21-24 time frame. A pattern more favorable for colder temperatures is possible for the upper Midwest, and this new pattern could also be a bit more favorable for a few snow events (Probably the clipper variety)
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 12
High: 23
Low: 8
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:45 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:20 PM CST
Tim