18z HRRR model 12-17-18
Snow cover or lack thereof showing up nicely on Goes-16 imagery today.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 12-17-18
Most of the lower 48 can expect above normal temperatures on Christmas Day — Here in Duluth our highs for next Tuesday are forecast to be in the 20s which is above normal for December 25.
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 12-17-18
This is still a ways down the road, and with how quiet the weather continues to be around here, might as well look to when there could be some actual snow around here, or at least a potential for something decent, and this chance comes mid to late next week, but with how the pattern has been so far this season (Split flow and such) it’s quite possible this system stays well south/east of our area unless we can get a favorable phasing in the jet stream to occur, which sends this low on a more northerly track.
El Nino has really taken control of the weather pattern across the lower 48 this month with a pretty classic El Nino temperature pattern featuring well above average temperatures across the northern tier while cooler than average temperatures prevail farther south and over the eastern U.S.
…Climate Data for December 16, 2018…
3rd highest maximum temperature on record for December 16 with a high on Sunday of 46 degrees. The record high temperature for December 16 is 51 degrees set in 1984.
4th highest maximum temperature on record for December 16 with a high on Sunday of 42 degrees. The record high temperature for December 16 is 50 degrees set in 1913.
International Falls, Minnesota
Tied for 4th highest maximum temperature on record for December 16 with a high on Sunday of 37 degrees. The record high temperature for December 16 is 43 degrees set in 1913.
Tied for 4th highest maximum temperature on record for December 16 with a high on Sunday of 37 degrees. The record high temperature for December 16 is 41 degrees set in 1984.
Tied for 5th highest maximum temperature on record for December 16 with a high on Sunday of 42 degrees. The record high temperature for December 16 is 54 degrees set in 1939.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A cooler airmass covered the Northland today with early Monday evening 850mb temperatures of 0 to -6C from SW-NE across the area but warmer air is getting ready to surge back in with +2 to +8C H85 temps covering the northern Plains into west-central/south-central Minnesota early this evening.
Highs today ranged from the lower 20s in far northern Minnesota to the upper 20s and lower 30s farther south. Lots of sun once again today.
RAP model analysis from 5 PM Monday showed an upper level trough covering the northeast U.S. and Pacific northwest with a ridge between the troughs across the central/northern Plains. The Northland was east of that ridge with a NW upper level flow in place.
Clear to partly cloudy skies for tonight with lows in the teens and 20s but some locations will likely drop into the single digits.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with milder temperatures as highs climb into the 30s to lower 40s. A warm front will swing through the upper Midwest on Tuesday but no precipitation will occur as this front moves through.
There could be some scattered showers of snow, sleet or freezing rain across parts of the Northland Wednesday into Thursday morning as low pressure along with another warm front and also a cold front moves east out of the northern Plains. Whatever type of precipitation falls looks to be spotty and on the light side so no major impacts are expected the way it looks now. More mild temps on Wednesday with highs in the 30s.
Temperatures cool off a tad late week into this weekend but nothing arctic, in fact temperatures could still be running slightly above normal, but not the 40 or 50 degree temps like we saw this past weekend.
Note: Still keeping an eye on a minor snow event which could impact parts of the Northland this weekend, however, the trends in the computer models aren’t very good for much snow around here through Christmas. Still only 1 inch of snow so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota (thru the 17th) If the month ended today it would be the 2nd least snowiest December on record in Duluth.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 18
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:49 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:22 PM CST