18z NAM model 12-18-18
18z NAM model 12-18-18
Simulated radar forecast from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
I think most of the day Wednesday will be dry, although there could be some patchy drizzle, but then Wednesday night could feature some measurable precipitation in the form of light snow, sleet or freezing rain followed by some flurries and light snow showers during the day Thursday.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 12-18-18
So far this season all the bigger storms have missed us to the south, will the one later next week follow that trend? Or will the pattern (jet streams align) just right to nudge this storm far enough north to give the Northland a snowy wallop? The trends look promising right now if you want some snow, but with it being about a week away that might not necessarily be a good thing as we typically see these systems shift farther NW or SE with time. If it goes too far NW, then we could be looking at rain, ice or snow, and if it goes too far SE, then most of our area would likely get missed, again. Stay tuned!
12z GEFS model 12-18-18
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies across the area today with highs mainly in the 30s. A westerly flow aloft covered the upper Midwest today with a much warmer airmass over the area compared to 24 hours ago with 850mb temperatures early this Tuesday evening ranging from +4 to +8C.
Note: Today marked the 7th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 30 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota, during this stretch we’ve had 4 out of 7 days with an above freezing high temperature. Although it has been well above normal as of late, the only day that had some record breaking warmth was on Saturday, December 16, otherwise a few of the days since last week have had a either a high or low temp that have ranked top 5 warmest, so yes it has been mild, but not a lot of new records during this stretch of warm weather, it’s just been a real persistent thaw.
Quiet weather continues for tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 20s but a few spots could dip into the teens.
Mostly cloudy and continued mild Wednesday with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. An area of low pressure will be over southern Manitoba province Wednesday morning, this low heads east as it crosses into northern Lake Superior Thursday morning, then heads toward the eastern Great Lakes later in the day Thursday. A warm front and cold front will be attached to this low, and both fronts will move through the Northland from Wednesday through Thursday.
Could see a few rain showers on Wednesday in northern Minnesota followed by some areas of snow, sleet and freezing rain Wednesday night. Precipitation that falls should be on the light side, but there could be enough freezing rain which could lead to hazardous travel/walking conditions over parts of the area Wednesday night. As for snow totals, generally a dusting to maybe an inch for some parts of the area Wednesday night and Thursday.
Temperatures aloft will support the risk of rain Wednesday night with 850mb temperatures Wednesday evening around +2C while near surface temps hover right around 30 degrees, so as the rain falls down to the surface it would freeze due to the surface temps being near or a few degrees below freezing. Temperatures aloft become cold enough for mainly snow to fall late Wednesday night into Thursday (if any precipitation is falling at that time)
Our next chance for precipitation comes this weekend and this should mainly be in the form of snow with enough cold air in place. Doesn’t look like a lot of snow at the moment, maybe a dusting to around 2 inches, with most of that falling on Saturday.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 19
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:50 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:22 PM CST