12z European computer model (ECMWF) 12-21-18
Here’s my snowfall accumulation map for this weekend’s event.
This snow will fall over a 2-day period with breaks in the snow likely.
By Sunday evening I’m thinking 3-6 inches of snow will have fallen in far northeast Minnesota, mainly from around Tofte to Lutsen and Grand Marais.
About 1 to 3 inches of snow over much of northern Minnesota, tapering to around 1 inch or less farther south including for Hill City, Duluth, Two Harbors and far northern Wisconsin.
18z NAM-Nest model 12-21-18
Simulated radar forecast from Midnight tonight thru late Sunday night — Light snow and flurries this weekend across the Northland with periods of heavier snow possible over the Arrowhead due to some lake enhanced snow thanks to a southeasterly wind from Saturday through Sunday morning.
Computer models continue to show the potential for a larger winter storm which could impact parts of the Northland later next week, but as is typical for a storm that is several days away there continues to be differences in the storm track which will have an impact on snowfall amounts and precipitation types across the Northland. Stay tuned.
I haven’t noticed much change in the computer models in regards to their respective storm tracks for late next week per the 12z run from Friday — Here are the potential impacts based on the two storm tracks.
Goes-16 visible satellite image from Friday, December 21, 2018
There was some sun this afternoon across northern Minnesota but generally overcast skies prevailed through the day farther south including in the Twin Ports, Interstate 35 corridor and across all of northwest Wisconsin.
Poor snow depths continue across most of Minnesota, but there should be some new snow falling this weekend mainly in northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead, and then we have a potentially stronger storm for mid to late next week which could produce significant amounts of snow over some parts of Minnesota.
…What’s ahead for this weekend…
•Occasional light snow and snow showers for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. I don’t think there will be very many impacts from this snow in most of the area, although some roads could grease up at times so use caution if you have travel plans. The exception to this might be in far northeast Minnesota where some heavier snow could fall Saturday afternoon into Sunday so road conditions up in that area could be a little more hazardous.
•Lows tonight will range from around zero to 20 above. Highs Saturday in the 20s, but a few locations could approach 30 degrees in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.
•Low pressure (sort of a clipper like system) tracks E-SE out of western Saskatchewan province through the weekend, this low won’t be in a hurry to move as it will only reach Lake Superior by Sunday evening — This system combined with some vort maxes which will pass through the Northland will help to enhance the lift at times which will help produce some light snow over the weekend.
•S-SE wind coming off Lake Superior combined with -10C 850mb temps and lake water temps of around +3C will help to produce some lake enhanced snow Saturday into Sunday mainly affecting Cook County in far northeastern Minnesota.
***After Christmas storm***
Model trends look decent for being several days away, pretty good chance that we’re going to get some snow late next week, but how much snow is uncertain as it will come down to the storm track, if it comes far enough north, then some parts of the area could see heavy snowfall totals of 8-10″+ but if the storm ends up tracking farther south, then snow totals would likely be less, probably somewhere in the 1 to 4 inch range, and possibly even lower than that if the low goes way to the south which certainly is a possibility. Timing of the greatest impacts would be from late Wednesday night through Friday morning, December 26-28 time frame the way it looks as of late Friday afternoon, December 21.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 22
Sunrise Saturday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:23 PM CST