Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop (lower-level) from Saturday, December 22, 2018.
A pretty nice looking system moving east across northwest Minnesota today. Spokes of energy rotating around the low have helped to produce a few bands of light snow across the Northland today.
18z NAM-Nest model 12-22-2018
Simulated radar forecast from 8 PM this Saturday evening to 6 AM Monday.
Will continue to see areas of light snow pass through the Northland through Sunday with some heavier snow at times in far northeast Minnesota where SE winds coming off Lake Superior lead to some lake enhanced snow, mainly from near Silver Bay to Grand Marais.
Here’s my snowfall accumulation map through Sunday afternoon.
18z NAM model 12-22-2018
Updated storm tracks for late next week
See impacts maps below
Track number 1 would be quite favorable for potential heavy snowfall in Duluth and other areas of east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Note: Most of the computer models from Saturday agree on a track similar to number 1 on the map above.
Track number 2 is less favorable for heavy snow in Duluth and for the entire Northland with the heavy snow favoring southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin. A track like number 2 is still possible, and the GEFS model as well as some prior GFS and Canadian model runs have shown a track similar to number 2.
•Will continue to see some fluctuations with the storm track over the next few days and this will impact what area/s are at risk for heavy snow and not much snow at all. The storm track will also determine where the rain, snow and ice transition zones will setup. Right now it looks like most of the Northland would remain cold enough for snow, but there is a chance for the snow to mix with or change to some freezing rain in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Thursday night.
•Gusty E-NE winds could develop near Lake Superior especially from Thursday afternoon through most of Friday with potential for 20-30+ mph winds.
•Am a little concerned that the storm continues to slow down which would delay the greatest impacts until Thursday night or Friday, but right now it looks like things ramp up during the day Thursday, peaking Thursday night into Friday morning, but again this could change a bit over the next few days.
•There is still a possibility that the storm track shifts far enough south where it would keep most of the snow away from our area late next week.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
We’ve had some light snow and also some patchy fog and mist across the area today as low pressure and broad upper level trough approaches from the W-NW. Highs today were mainly in the 20s (some 5 to around 10 degrees above normal for December 22) Snowfall totals through 4 PM today ranged from nearly 1 inch in Duluth (0.8″) to less than a half inch at International Falls (0.3″)
Low pressure will remain over northern Minnesota through Sunday morning before pulling slowly toward the E-SE. This system combined with some vort maxes rotating around the low will help generate some light snow at times through Sunday.
Heavier snow is possible at times tonight and Sunday over far northeast Minnesota where a combination of system snow and lake enhanced snow is expected with SE wind off Lake Superior along with 850mb temps of around -10C.
Lows tonight will range from the upper teens to the 20s with highs Sunday in the 20s.
Note: To go along with the snow, there could also be lingering areas of fog and freezing drizzle across the Northland tonight and Sunday. A couple observation stations across the Northland have reported some fog and mist at times today.
Christmas Eve (Monday) looks mainly dry at the moment with highs in the 20s. There could be a little light snow or flurries around for Christmas Day but this doesn’t look like a big deal at the moment. Highs on Tuesday mainly in the 20s once again.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 23
Sunrise Sunday: 7:52 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:24 PM CST