Here’s my snowfall map for tonight and Monday.
•Still thinking will get 6-8 inches of snow for the north part of Duluth (on top of the hill) Lower amounts south side (below the hill) 4-6 inches. Possibility for some mixed precip which could lead to lower snowfall amounts.
•Greatest snowfall amounts continue to favor the North Shore with potential for around 8 inches of snow in Two Harbors to possibly as much as 10 to 14 inches farther up the shore from near Silver Bay to Tofte and Grand Marais.
•Lower snowfall amounts in northwest Wisconsin, east-central and north-central Minnesota ranging from 1 to around 4 inches.
Radar loop ending at 12 PM CST, Sunday, January 6, 2019.
Seeing some snow and mixed precip early this afternoon over North Dakota, this is the system that will affect the Northland tonight and Monday.
Winter storm warning in pink
Winter weather advisory in purple
Could see some changes to the headlines by later this afternoon with some of the counties in the winter storm warning possibly changing to a winter weather advisory.
Note: Computer models have been in pretty good agreement on our next winter storm, but wow that sure has changed with the 00z Euro model run last night, and with the 12z models from this morning.
-NAM model has backed off considerably on the amount of precipitation/snowfall across most of the Northland.
-Euro has also lowered precip/snowfall amounts per the 00z run early this Sunday morning and now with the 12z model run this afternoon.
-GFS, Canadian, Icon and HREF models haven’t changed too much in regards to how much precip/snow could fall across our area.
-The last few HRRR model runs are certainly trending toward the NAM and Euro solutions with precip totals decreasing with each new model run per HRRR model which by the way updates hourly.
A few things I’ve been concerned about with this system include
1) How quick the system moves through which could reduce the amount of snow most of us see.
2) When does the heavier snow develop, and where? Some of the models especially the NAM and Euro don’t develop the heavier snow until the system gets northeast/east of Duluth, and if this does verify, then snow amounts would be much less for the Iron Range and in Duluth/Superior. Basically we’d see about 2-4 inches of snow for those aforementioned areas if the system doesn’t really get its act together until it is east of the Iron Range and Twin Ports.
3) The amount of warm air that pushes north ahead of the low tonight. Looking more likely that will see a mixture of precipitation, ranging from wet snow, sleet and rain for most of east-central Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin which should result in lower snowfall amounts for those areas, and this mix of precipitation could extend as far north as Duluth and the Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota early Monday morning.
Note: It is possible that will see some big changes to the winter weather headlines that are currently in effect, and for snowfall amounts to decrease significantly by late this afternoon. Stay tuned.