…Winter Storm Update… New snowfall potential map below
•10 to 14 inches of snow from near Silver Bay to Tofte to Grand Marais due to lake enhanced snow and Orographic forcing (Pink outlined area on map)
•8 to 10 inches of snow for Two Harbors (Yellow outlined area on map)
•Snowfall amounts for Duluth ranging from 6 to 8 inches on the north side of the city to 4 to 6 inches on the south side of the city. Also 4 to 6 inches of snow for Superior and other areas of northwest Wisconsin roughly along and north of a line from Solon Springs to Ashland.
•Lower snowfall amounts farther west and south, generally in the 2 to 4 inch range from Bigfork to Grand Rapids to Hill City and Sandstone, and for the Hayward Lakes area in northwest Wisconsin.
•1 to 2 inches of snow for the Brainerd area.
Note: Some adjustments to the snowfall totals are possible.
Latest winter weather headlines map as of 5:12 PM Saturday.
Note: Will see the watch area upgraded to an advisory or warning by Sunday morning.
18z NAM model 1-5-19
A very strong low level jet out of the SE (50-65 knots or stronger) will help pull very moist air northward into the upper Midwest Sunday night.
18z NAM-WRF model 1-5-19
Simulated radar forecast from 6 AM Sunday to 12 PM Monday.
As winds turn to the E on Sunday we could see some light lake effect snow showers affect the North Shore of Lake Superior, but little to no snow accumulation is expected.
The main slug of moisture arrives Sunday night as snow blossoms over the Northland with the heaviest snowfall occurring from after Midnight through Monday morning.
Snow tapers off from SW-NE by Monday afternoon.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
*So far this winter (Since Dec 1) we’ve had 11 days with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees. The average for the entire winter (Dec 1 to Feb 28) is 20 days. Last winter (2017-18) had 21 days with a high of at least 32 degrees.
*56 Januaries on record dating back to 1875 (144 years of records) have produced a 40 degree or warmer temperature.
*Since 2000 — Here are the years that have produced at least one 40 degree day during the month of January (2002, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019) We’ve had 5 consecutive years now with at least one day at or above 40 F in January (2015-2019)
…Climate Data for January 4, 2019…
New record high temperature set for January 4 with a high on Friday of 40 degrees. Previous record high was 38 degrees set in 1891, 1898 and 1992.
4th highest minimum temperature on record for January 4 with a low on Friday of 27 degrees. The record warm low temperature for January 4 is 31 degrees set in 2007.
International Falls, Minnesota
New record high temperature set for January 4 with a high on Friday of 38 degrees. Previous record high was 37 degrees set in 2007.
New record high temperature set for January 4 with a high on Friday of 42 degrees. Previous record high was 41 degrees set in 2007.
4th highest maximum temperature on record for January 4 with a high on Friday of 41 degrees. The record high temperature for January 4 is 44 degrees set in 1962, tied in 1984.
4th highest maximum temperature on record for January 4 with a high on Friday of 35 degrees. The record high temperature for January 4 is 37 degrees set in 2012.
Storm Timeline for Duluth
•A few flurries or light lake effect snow showers are possible on Sunday as winds turn to the east. Not expecting any accumulation during the day.
•Snow develops Sunday night (8 PM to Midnight time frame) Heaviest snow is expected after Midnight.
•Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible Sunday evening.
•Snow tapers off Monday morning (8 AM to 10 AM time frame) Patchy drizzle is possible after the snow ends.
•Travel will be difficult Monday morning with snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour possible. Roads will be snow covered and slippery late Sunday night through Monday morning with reduced visibilities due to the snow.
•Snowfall storm total accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches with the greatest amounts on top of the hill, or north side of the city where southeast winds coming off Lake Superior could produce some lake enhanced snow along with some orographic forcing on top of the hill.
•This will likely be a wet/heavy snowfall with temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees early Monday morning, then rising into the middle 30s Monday afternoon after the snow ends.
•The daily snowfall record for January 7 is 11.6 inches set in 1989. 2nd snowiest is 8.2 inches set in 1994. 3rd snowiest is 3.3 inches set in 1959. Will likely get to the 3rd spot on Monday. Lower chance for number 2, and an even lower chance at the record of 11.6 inches, but you never know!
Concerns I have about this storm
-The overall quick movement which could reduce snowfall totals just a bit.
-If the snow takes longer to develop, that too could reduce the snowfall totals.
-Warmer air getting pulled north early Monday morning, this could produce more of a mix of precipitation especially over southern areas of northwest Wisconsin. But the warmer airmass pushing north could cut into snow ratios especially from Duluth south.
-Speaking of those snow ratios — Looks like they will be in the 12:1 to 14:1 range in northeast Minnesota and from around 8:1 to 10:1 in northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota.
More updates on this approaching winter storm later this evening or on Sunday.