Just a short weather update this evening
00z model guidance coming out now, and after looking over the NAM model, NAM-Nest model, HopWRF model, and the most recent and a few prior HRRR model runs, I’m dropping snow totals by quite a bit for most of the Northland.
Greatest snow amounts and the biggest impacts in terms of heavy snow accumulation/heavy snowfall rates should be along the North Shore of Lake Superior and over the Arrowhead where snow totals of 6 to around 12 inches are possible, and there is still potential for a few 12″+ totals in the pink outlined area on map.
As for Duluth — Generally 1 to 3 inches of snow below the hill with 3 to around 6 inches of snow possible on top of the hill. The heaviest precipitation rates look to occur in the 1 AM to 9 AM window (+/- an hour)
There is a threat for freezing rain and maybe some sleet late tonight-Monday morning across east-central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and also in the Duluth area with a light glaze of ice possible.
Note: This low pressure system has a good supply of moisture, but it’s taking a while for the low levels to saturate, thus so far the precipitation on radar has mostly been evaporating before reaching the ground, although there have been a few observation sites around the area reporting light snow as of 8 PM, but they have been few and far between. It doesn’t look like will see heavier precipitation develop until around midnight or a little after midnight, and by then most of it should be confined to the Arrowhead and North Shore, possibly as far south as Duluth, otherwise we’re looking at generally light precipitation for the remainder of the Northland late tonight into Monday morning.
Warmer air surging farther north will lead to more of a mixture of precipitation types Monday morning for areas near and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota, and over most of northwest Wisconsin.
Links to Road Conditions
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts