12z RGEM model 1-13-19
Forecast temperatures at 6 AM Monday.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Sunday, January 13, 2019.
Disturbance dropping SE thru the Manitoba Lakes region this Sunday afternoon will pass through the Northland tonight-Monday morning.
18z NAM model 1-13-19
Model simulation of tonight’s vort max which dives SE out of southern Manitoba province, looks impressive, but it won’t produce much snow as it moves through tonight.
18z HRRR model 1-13-19
Simulated radar forecast from 11 PM tonight to 1 PM Monday.
Scattered snow showers will move E-SE across the area late tonight-Monday morning. Snowfall of a trace up to 1 inch is possible.
12z GEFS model 1-13-19
Temperature Anomaly forecast valid thru January 29, 2019.
Much of the U.S. goes into the freezer after this week. Watch how the blue and purple colors (below average temps) drop south and expand over the U.S. during the next 1-2 weeks.
Note: Unfortunately for snow lovers, this new pattern doesn’t look very favorable for big snows for our area as the arctic air will likely keep the storm track well to our south. Our only chance for some snow would come from clipper systems or from lake effect for the rest of this month the way it looks now.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-13-19
Temperature anomaly forecast valid from January 14 to 28, 2019.
Good model agreement between the ensemble models (GEFS and EPS) on a much colder pattern setting up over much of the U.S. during the next 1-2 weeks.
Orange and red colors represent above normal temperatures
Blue, green and purple colors represent below normal temperatures
Temperature departure map for the week of January 6, 2019 — Another blowtorch across the Northland. Note: Last week was the 5th week in a row where the average temperature was above normal at Duluth, Minnesota. The last time Duluth had an average temperature below normal was the week of December 2nd.
Precipitation departure map for the week of January 6, 2019 — The North Shore had well above normal precipitation totals last week (darker green, blue and purple colors on map) While the rest of the Northland had near to below normal precipitation last week.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
January 6-12, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
1/6: 30 F/+11 degrees above normal
1/7: 36 F/+17 degrees above normal
1/8: 32 F/+13 degrees above normal
1/9: 12 F/-7 degrees below normal
1/10: 20 F/+1 degree above normal
1/11: 26 F/+7 degrees above normal
1/12: 28 F/+9 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
1/6: 17 F/+15 degrees above normal
1/7: 29 F/+27 degrees above normal
1/8: 10 F/+8 degrees above normal
1/9: 3 F/+1 degree above normal
1/10: 2 F/+1 degree above normal
1/11: 20 F/+19 degrees above normal
1/12: 26 F/+25 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of January 6: 20.8 degrees (+10.7 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.34 inches
Normal: 0.24 inches
Departure: +0.10 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of January 6
Temperature: 21.1 degrees
Departure: +9.8 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.11 inches
Departure: -0.07 inches below normal
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•The average temperature so far this winter (since Dec 1) 21.1 degrees (+7.5 degrees above average) No doubt we’ve been torching a lot this winter so far, but a much colder pattern appears to be setting up later this week, and this could have some staying power, something we haven’t seen yet this winter.
•So far the winter of 2018-19 is running ~12 degrees warmer than last winter thru January 12. See stats below.
-Avg temp Dec 1 to Jan 12, 2018-19: 21.1 degrees (+7.5 degrees above avg)
-Avg temp Dec 1 to Jan 12, 2017-18: 8.9 degrees (-4.7 degrees below avg)
…Climate Data for January 12, 2019…
5th highest minimum temperature on record for January 12 with a low on Saturday of 25 degrees. The record high low temperature for January 12 is 30 degrees set in 2001.
5th highest minimum temperature on record for January 12 with a low on Saturday of 24 degrees. The record high low temperature is 30 degrees set in 1928.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Another overcast day across northern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin but there was some sun today in parts of northern Wisconsin, around the Bayfield and Ashland areas. Mild temperatures continued today with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s.
Mostly cloudy skies for tonight with some light snow and flurries developing during the night as an upper level disturbance moves SE across the area. Could be some patchy freezing drizzle as well tonight.
Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on Monday with snow showers/flurries ending by early afternoon.
A clipper system passes north of our area on Tuesday but it will drag a cold front through our area with a much colder airmass moving in after the cold frontal passage.
850mb temperatures for Monday afternoon are forecast to range from -2 to -6C, those will fall to -10 to -20C by Tuesday night as much colder air pours into the area on gusty N-NW winds.
Low temperatures tonight will remain unseasonably mild, mainly in the 20s. Note: Normal lows in mid January range from the single digits below to around zero.
Highs on Monday will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Note: Bitterly cold temperatures hit late this week with overnight lows in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday night, Saturday night and Sunday night (Jan 18-20) Daytime highs of 10 below to the single digits above zero are possible from Fri-Sun. Will probably see some wind chill headlines issued across the area at times next weekend.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 14
Sunrise Monday: 7:50 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:46 PM CST