Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-14-19
As I pointed out in Sunday’s blog, this pattern that will be developing isn’t favorable for a lot of snow across the Northland as the main storm track sets up well to our south where several major storms are possible thru the end of the month while in our area our snow chances would come from weaker clipper systems or from lake effect snows during the next 2 weeks.
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z NAM-WRF model 1-14-19
Simulated radar forecast for Tuesday shows the potential for a little light snow or more likely some flurries moving SE across the Northland during the late morning through the early evening hours as a cold front moves through the area.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z NAM-WRF model 1-14-19
Expect gusty winds across the area on Tuesday with southwest winds shifting to northwest later in the day. Wind gusts of 20 to around 30 mph are possible.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Here’s today’s system which looks pretty cool on water vapor imagery as it passes through the upper Great Lakes, but it only produced a little snow along with some patchy freezing drizzle earlier today, skies cleared nicely from NW-SE this afternoon behind this system.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-14-19
Here it comes! Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for later this week into this weekend. Wind chill headlines will likely be needed for Friday through Sunday.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-14-19
Watch how the colder (below average temps) expand across the U.S. between January 15 and January 29.
Note: Orange and red colors on these maps represent above normal temperatures while green and blue colors represent below normal temps. This pattern that will be taking over in the coming weeks is similar to the one we were in for most of November which was a cold month across the Northland with the average temperatures finishing some 5-6 degrees below normal!
…Climate Data for January 13, 2019…
International Falls, Minnesota
2nd highest minimum temperature on record for January 13 with a low on Sunday of 22 degrees. The record high low temperature for January 13 is 27 degrees set in 2001.
Brainerd, Minnesota
3rd highest minimum temperature on record for January 13 with a low on Sunday of 27 degrees. The record high low temperature for January 13 is 30 degrees set in 1928.
Hibbing, Minnesota
3rd highest minimum temperature on record for January 13 with a low on Sunday of 24 degrees. The record high low temperature for January 13 is 27 degrees set in 1960.
Duluth, Minnesota
5th highest minimum temperature on record for January 13 with a low on Sunday of 26 degrees. The record high low temperature for January 13 is 30 degrees set in 1899.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
It’s been a balmy January for Northland standards with the monthly average temperature thru the 13th running 7 to 11 degrees warmer than normal across the area, but this will be changing as we see the pattern revert back to what we saw most of November, in other words we can expect more frequent cold snaps for the rest of this month with only very brief warm ups and not the persistent thaws that we’ve had most of this winter up to this point.
Tonight will be cooler than Sunday night but still not bad for mid January as lows range from the single digits to around 20 above. Will have clear to partly cloudy skies with more clouds moving in later in the night as low pressure approaches from Saskatchewan province along with some warm air advection with 850mb temperatures ranging from -3 to -7C this evening, climbing to 0 to -3C Tuesday morning.
Strong cold air advection takes place Tuesday afternoon/evening with 850mb temperatures falling to around -10 to -18C. Cold front moves through the area during Tuesday afternoon with gusty winds shifting from SW to NW once the cold front passes. A few flurries, snow showers or patchy freezing drizzle are possible on Tuesday but little or no snow/ice accumulation is expected. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday with highs mainly in the 20s.
Wednesday will feature much colder temperatures with daytime highs in the single digits and teens.
Note: The period from Friday through Sunday continues to look bitterly cold with daytime highs ranging from around 10 below to 5 above zero, overnight lows in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero. Will also have enough wind to produce dangerously cold wind chills at times this weekend.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 15
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:50 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:47 PM CST
Tim
Leave a Reply