Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com
This map should look quite a bit different by the end of the month due to more frequent blasts of arctic air which will cause the average monthly temperatures/departures to fall from where they are as of January 15.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z RGEM model 1-16-19
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-16-19
Temperature anomaly forecast valid from January 17 to January 31. Blue, green and purple colors represent below normal temperatures while orange and red colors represent above normal temperatures.
A very cold weekend ahead across the Northland, but temperatures will moderate a little bit early-mid next week before another round of arctic air settles in late next week/weekend. Overall it’s a cold pattern for the rest of this month.
Low Temperature reports from Wednesday morning, January 16
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
5 NW Ash Lake, MN: -24 F
International Falls, MN: -23 F
Crane Lake, MN: -20 F
Cook, MN: -17 F
Ely, MN: -17 F
Bigfork, MN: -17 F
Northome, MN: -17 F
3 SE Cotton, MN: -16 F
4 NE Grand Portage, MN: -16 F
Silver Bay, MN: -15 F
Cass Lake, MN: -13 F
Walker, MN: -12 F
Aitkin, MN: -11 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) -11 F
Two Harbors, MN: -11 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -10 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -9 F
2 WNW Duluth, MN: -9 F
3 NNE Hermantown, MN: -7 F
Duluth Airport: -4 F
Note: A warm winter so far has led to fewer heating degree days across the Northland. See stats below.
Heating Degree Days for Dec 1 thru Jan 16, 2018-19
HDD=Heating Degree Days
Hibbing, MN
Total HDD: 2349
Normal: 2599
Departure: -250 below normal
International Falls, MN
Total HDD: 2348
Normal: 2686
Departure: -338 below normal
Brainerd, MN
Total HDD: 2124
Normal: 2403
Departure: -279 below normal
Duluth, MN
Total HDD: 2067
Normal: 2433
Departure: -366 below normal
Ashland, WI
Total HDD: 1912
Normal: 2270
Departure: -358 below normal
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A few passing mid/high level clouds today otherwise skies were mostly sunny and it was on the chilly side with highs ranging from the single digits in northern Minnesota to the teens in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
The upper Midwest is being controlled by the Polar jet stream with NW flow covering the region. A cold airmass is in place with 850mb temperatures of -12 to -18C.
Very little snowfall is expected in our area through Saturday with high pressure and dry NW flow keeping the storm track well to our south.
Temperatures aloft around -10 to -20C Thursday morning; Around -15 to -21C Friday morning; -20 to -25C Saturday morning — In other words, a very cold airmass!
Lows tonight will range from the single digits below to single digits above zero with teens and perhaps a few 20s below in northern Minnesota. Highs Thursday in the single digits and teens.
Friday through Sunday continues to look frigid with highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Lows Friday night, Saturday night and Sunday night in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero. Note: It wouldn’t surprise me if a few locations in northern Minnesota make a run at 40 below zero Sunday morning.
Keep an eye on this! Duluth, Minnesota has only had 1.8 inches of snow so far this month with a few weeks left to go, but model trends don’t look very promising for a whole lot of snow around here thru the end of the month.
January 2019 could rank in the top 10 least snowiest on record. See list below.
1: 2.0 inches (1921)
2: 2.2 inches (1904)
3: 2.3 inches (1924)
4: 2.8 inches (2008 and 1961)
5: 2.9 inches (1925)
6: 3.6 inches (1963 and 1940)
7: 3.7 inches (1909 and 1898)
8: 3.8 inches (1901)
9: 4.2 inches (1908)
10: 4.3 inches (1931)
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 17
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Thursday: 7:48 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:50 PM CST
Tim