Wind chill warning in dark blue
Wind chill advisory in lighter blue
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z NAM-WRF model 1-19-19
Watch how the lake effect snow showers shift from the South Shore to the North Shore by Sunday night as winds change directions from N-NW tonight to E-SE by Sunday night, pretty cool! The threat for lake effect snow showers along the North Shore will end Monday morning as warm air advection moves in.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-20-19
Snow event for Monday into Tuesday is still on track. Exact snow amounts are still a little uncertain, but I think there is a pretty good chance that most of the Northland will get at least 1 to 3 inches of snow out of this early week system with some potential for greater than 3 inches of snow. Stay tuned.
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-20-19
Temperature anomaly forecast valid through February 3, 2019. I hope you like cold arctic air because it looks like it’s sticking around for the next 1 to 2 weeks, there will, however, be a brief warm-up this week, during the Monday-Wednesday time frame, otherwise it would appear that we’re locked into the freezer through early February.
Warmer colors (Above normal temps) represented by orange and red colors on the map.
Colder colors (Below normal temps) represented by blue, green and purple colors on map.
Low Temperature reports from Saturday morning, January 19, 2019
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Kabetogama, MN: -42 F
5 NW Ash Lake, MN: -40 F
2 E Celina, MN: -40 F
Babbitt, MN: -39 F
3 SE Cotton, MN: -38 F
International Falls, MN: -38 F
7 E Effie, MN: -38 F
Littlefork, MN: -37 F
Crane Lake, MN: -36 F
Cook, MN: -36 F
Ely, MN: -36 F
Embarrass, MN: -36 F
Orr, MN: -36 F
Gunflint Lake, MN: -33 F
Cass Lake, MN: -30 F
5 E Hibbing, MN: -26 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -25 F
Aitkin, MN: -22 F
4 W Grand Portage, MN: -22 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) -20 F
Bruno, MN: -19 F
1 NNW Cloquet, MN: -18 F
3 NNE Hermantown, MN: -17 F
Brainerd, MN: -15 F
4 SSE South Range, WI: -15 F
2 SW Proctor, MN: -15 F
Moose Lake, MN: -15 F
Duluth Airport: -15 F
Note: International Falls, Minnesota was 2 degrees shy of tying their record low for January 19 with a low Saturday morning of -38 F, the record low for January 19 is -40 F set in 1963.
Wind Chill reports from Saturday morning, January 19, 2019
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -48 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) -41 F
5 E Hibbing, MN: -39 F
Walker, MN: -39 F
International Falls, MN: -38 F
Duluth Airport: -37 F
Cook, MN: -36 F
Ely, MN: -36 F
Grand Portage, MN: -36 F
Bigfork, MN: -35 F
1 NNW Cloquet, MN: -35 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -33 F
Aitkin, MN: -32 F
2 SW Proctor, MN: -32 F
Brainerd, MN: -30 F
1 W Isabella, MN: -30 F
Lake Effect Snowfall reports from Friday night-Saturday morning, January 18-19, 2019
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Herbster, WI: 4.0 inch
3 E Sand Bay, WI: 3.5 inch
4 SSE Herbster, WI: 1.5 inch
1 NW Hurley, WI: 1.0 inch
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Arctic air remains over the area today. There was a lot of sunshine which is quite typical when there is arctic air since it is very dry! Highs today ranged from the single digits below to single digits above zero, similar to Friday’s highs. Highs today were roughly 20 degrees below normal for mid January.
Looking at the upper levels finds that the core of the arctic air is actually farther to our NE across central Ontario Province where 850mb temps were down to -30C with 500mb temps of -44C with thickness values down to 485 meters per RAP model. Farther south across the Northland it’s still bitter with 850mb temps of -20 to -24C, 500mb temps of -30 to -36C and thickness values from ~500 meters to 515 meters.
Tonight will be the coldest night of this arctic blast with lows in the 20s and 30s below zero with a few spots in northern Minnesota falling into the 40s below once again. Lows in the teens and 20s below will be more common across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Enough wind will mix down to the surface (~4 to 11 mph) to produce very cold, dangerous wind chills from 30 below to around 50 below zero with the coldest wind chills over the Iron Range, Borderland and Arrowhead areas.
Should have lots of sunshine once again on Sunday with highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero.
Note: Lake effect snow showers are expected to flare up again tonight, lingering into Sunday morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior with snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 3 inches possible from northeast Douglas County to northern Bayfield, Ashland and Iron County. Winds will gradually shift to the E-SE later Sunday which could cause a few light lake effect snow showers to drift to the North Shore of Lake Superior by late Sunday afternoon, but not expecting much in the way of accumulation for the North Shore.
Snow chances increase during the Monday afternoon or Monday night time frame with some snow continuing into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will moderate early in the week, but will still be on the cold side, so snow ratios should be higher than the usual 10:1, could be more in the 15:1 to 20:1 range with this event, in other words this will be a drier/fluffier snowfall compared to prior events this winter. If snowflake size is large, then some areas could certainly see more than 3 inches of snow, but if snowflakes remain small, that would likely keep snow totals more in the 1-3 inch range.
Long range computer models continue to show more outbreaks of arctic air affecting the upper Midwest later next week, possibly as soon as Thursday, January 24, what is unknown is how far south does the arctic air penetrate, and will there be clippers embedded in the pattern that would tend to keep the arctic airmasses brief while the more persistent arctic air would remain a little farther north over central Canada. Anyway you look at it the pattern is a cold one, and could be epic cold at times over the next 1 to 2 weeks.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 20
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Sunday: 7:46 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:54 PM CST
Tim
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