18z NAM-WRF model 1-22-19
Our next shot for a little snow comes late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as an arctic front plows SE across the area. Not expecting much snow with this system, generally a dusting to an inch of accumulation.
18z NAM-WRF model 1-22-19
Gusty NW winds will move into the Northland Thursday morning as arctic air returns! Wind gusts of 20 to around 35 mph are possible on Thursday with areas of blowing snow. Gusty winds could continue Thursday night producing dangerously cold wind chills into Friday.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 1-22-19
This is about as impressive of a cold weather pattern that you’ll see across North America. At least 3 shots of brutally cold weather are possible through the middle of next week for the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Map below is the 500mb height anomaly forecast from Wednesday morning, January 23 through Friday evening, February 1.
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 1-22-19
Check out this temperature gradient that may setup late this weekend, ranging from the 30s in southwest Minnesota to the teens below in northeast Minnesota, that would be incredible!
The reason behind that temperature gradient is caused by a clipper which tracks SE out of western Canada late this weekend. The track of this system is still very uncertain, but if it tracks far enough north, then parts of the Northland could get several inches of snow during the Sunday-Monday time frame. This system, depending on the track, could also cause winds to shift to the E-NE for a time Sunday night-Monday, and if that happens, then there could be some lake effect snow near Lake Superior. Stay tuned.
Snowfall reports for January 21-22, 2019
6 S Whipholt, MN: 10.2 inch
4 S Grand Rapids, MN: 9.0 inch
7 SE Grand Rapids, MN: 9.0 inch
6 S Grand Rapids, MN: 8.5 inch
2 NE Duluth, MN: 8.0 inch
1 WSW Two Harbors, MN: 7.5 inch
Cotton, MN: 7.5 inch
3 E Payne, MN: 7.0 inch
1 SSE Melrude, MN: 6.3 inch
Calumet, MN: 6.0 inch
2 WNW Two Harbors, MN: 6.0 inch
4 W Grand Marais, MN: 5.9 inch
2 NW Duluth, MN: 5.7 inch
Hibbing, MN: 5.5 inch
2 SW French River, MN: 5.0 inch
1 S Twig, MN: 5.0 inch
3 N Nisswa, MN: 5.0 inch
2 W Iron Junction, MN: 5.0 inch
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 5.0 inch
Duluth Airport: 5.0 inch
Floodwood, MN: 5.0 inch
7 N McGregor, MN: 4.8 inch
4 SSE Herbster, WI: 4.5 inch
Wolfridge, MN: 4.2 inch
2 W Duluth, MN: 4.1 inch
Babbitt, MN: 4.0 inch
Hoyt Lakes, MN: 4.0 inch
3 N Brainerd, MN: 3.9 inch
International Falls, MN: 3.9 inch
Bigfork, MN: 3.5 inch
Virginia, MN: 3.5 inch
1 N Cloquet, MN: 3.2 inch
Poplar, WI: 3.0 inch
7 ESE Superior, WI: 2.9 inch
2 E Celina, MN: 2.8 inch
Ely, MN: 2.8 inch
Wrenshall, MN: 2.8 inch
Cook, MN: 2.5 inch
2 W Hayward, WI: 2.3 inch
Hertel, WI: 2.0 inch
Gile, WI: 2.0 inch
3 S Ashland, WI: 2.0 inch
3 SSW Bruno, MN: 2.0 inch
Gordon, WI: 2.0 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 2.0 inch
Holyoke, MN: 1.9 inch
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 1.6 inch
1 W Solon Springs, WI: 1.5 inch
4 SSE Webster, WI: 1.0 inch
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•4.6 inches of snow on January 22 — This is our first 1″ or greater calendar day snowfall total this month, and first 1″ or greater snowfall since December 31.
•Snowfall total for January is now at 6.9 inches which is still well below normal! Our normal snowfall for January is 19.4 inches.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Snow came to an end this morning which was followed by generally mostly cloudy skies, although there were a few glimpses of sun for some of us. Flurries also lingered across parts of the area this afternoon. Temperatures were right near seasonal averages today with highs in the teens.
Surface map late this Tuesday afternoon had an area of low pressure along the Kansas-Missouri state line, this low will lift NE, reaching Lake Huron by Wednesday evening. This system will spread a swath of snow and mixed precipitation from the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes over the next 24 hours.
500mb analysis per RAP model from 22z Tuesday (4 PM) showed a W-SW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures were sitting at -14C.
If skies were to clear tonight, temperatures would tank due to the fresh snow that fell across the Northland earlier today, but it looks like will maintain mostly cloudy skies for tonight, although some breaks in the clouds could develop. Lows tonight will range from the teens below to single digits above zero, but a few spots could be colder than that if skies clear a little more than expected.
Most of Wednesday looks dry under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the teens to lower 20s, so one more relatively mild late January day before the arctic air returns on Thursday.
An arctic front slices through the area Wednesday night with snow showers and flurries occurring as that front slides through. Winds shift to the NW behind that front with strong cold air advection occurring Wednesday night as 850mb temperatures fall from -10 to -15C Wednesday afternoon, to -20 to -28C by Thursday morning. Thickness values will also drop as the arctic air returns, right around 520m Wednesday afternoon, falling to 485 to 490m by Thursday evening, very impressive!
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 23
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:43 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:58 PM CST