Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Wind chill advisory for all of northeast and east-central Minnesota (light blue shaded area on map) this advisory is in effect from 4 AM Thursday to 6 PM Thursday.
•Wind chills as low as 35 below zero
•Frostbite on exposed skin is possible in as little as 10 minutes
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com/
A ground blizzard will develop later this evening and will continue through Thursday across western-southern portions of Minnesota and over parts of the Dakotas. Widespread blowing snow will occur producing blizzard conditions across those areas.
Links to road conditions
Minnesota — https://lb.511mn.org//mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z NAM-WRF model 1-23-19
Gusty NW winds will spread NW-SE across the Northland tonight and Thursday. Beginning first in western areas later this evening, reaching Duluth between 2-4 AM Thursday. Wind gusts of 20 to around 40 mph are possible through Thursday afternoon with areas of blowing snow across the area.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z NAM-WRF model 1-23-19
Will see some snow across the Northland tonight into early Thursday morning as an arctic front moves through. Snowfall amounts will range from a dusting up to 2 inches in a few spots across northern Minnesota.
Lake effect snow showers will affect parts of Ashland and Iron County in northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday night.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 1-23-19
Still looking at three upper lows dropping S-SE into the upper Midwest through next week. These lows break off from the main upper low or Polar Vortex which is centered farther north in Canada. We could potentially see the main upper low (Polar Vortex) drop south into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes sometime during the middle of next week (~Jan 29-31)
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z Canadian model 1-23-19
I’m still watching a late weekend clipper which could produce a narrow swath of heavy snow somewhere over the northern Plains and upper Midwest. The track of this system is still very uncertain, but if it comes far enough north, then some snow would occur in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin sometime in the Sunday-Monday time frame. Winds could also shift to the E-NE for a time Sunday/Monday which would potentially produce some lake effect snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Weather Tidbit for Duluth, Minnesota
-So far this winter (Since Dec 1) 72% of the days have recorded an above average temperature, only 28% have been below average. I know the pattern has flipped to a much colder one recently, but this winter so far is still running over +5.0 degrees above normal with an average temperature thru Jan 22 of 18.4 degrees, or +5.5 degrees warmer than normal thru January 22, will be interesting to see where we end up with a month and about a week left of winter 2018-19.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today was probably the last warm day will have for the next week or so. Highs today were generally in the teens which is right where they should be in late January. The Northland saw a mix of sun/clouds today with some light snow showers and flurries at times. Duluth and International Falls both picked up around 1/2 inch of snow earlier today.
The big weather story through next week will be the arctic air! Polar vortex will be anchored to our N while upper lows break off and shoot south through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through next week.
850mb temperatures of -10 to -14C across the Northland late this Wednesday afternoon will fall to around -20 to -30C by Thursday afternoon with similar 850mb temps expected on Friday.
Thickness values around 515 to 520m this Wednesday evening, fall to 490-495m by Thursday evening, and will range from 485 to 495m Friday afternoon. Very impressive!
Lows tonight will be in the single digits and teens with temperatures by Thursday afternoon ranging from the teens below to around 5 above zero. Lows Thursday night are expected to fall into the teens, 20s and 30s below across the Northland.
It’ll be a rinse and repeat pattern with our temps through next week with daytime highs ranging from the teens below to single digits above zero, overnight lows in the teens, 20s and 30s below with 40s below possible on a few nights.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 24
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Thursday: 7:42 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 5:00 PM CST
Tim
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