Source: https://www.ecmwf.int
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 1-24-19
Source: https://www.ecmwf.int
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 1-24-19
The first of many wind chill headlines that will be in effect across the Northland through next week.
•Wind chill warning (darker blue) Wind chills as low as 50 below zero.
•Wind chills in the advisory area ranging from around 25 below to 40 below zero.
Note: These headlines are in effect through Noon Friday, but will likely be extended beyond that time.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 1-24-19
Still looking at three separate upper lows breaking off from the Polar Vortex which will be over northern-central Canada through next week. The first one is affecting us now, the second one is more intense than tonight’s, with the core of it passing just north of Lake Superior on Sunday, and then finally will see the third and potentially most intense portion of this Polar Vortex drop south into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes sometime during the January 29-31 time frame the way it looks now.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 1-24-19
Another indicator of an arctic airmass is by looking at the 850mb temperatures, whenever they get down into the -20s or colder you’re dealing with arctic air. The shots of arctic air lined up through next week will have 850mb temperatures from around -30 to as low as -42C, wow, well below average!
Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com
12z GEFS model 1-24-19
Snowfall reports from Thursday morning, January 24, 2019
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Cornucopia, WI: 3.5 inch
7 SE Grand Rapids, MN: 2.0 inch
2 W Iron Junction, MN: 2.0 inch
Floodwood, MN: 2.0 inch
5 SE Libby, MN: 1.8 inch
Embarrass, MN: 1.6 inch
1 N Cloquet, MN: 1.5 inch
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 1.5 inch
3 E Orr, MN: 1.5 inch
Duluth Airport: 1.5 inch
4 SSE Webster, WI: 1.5 inch
4 N Amnicon Falls, WI: 1.4 inch
7 WSW Pine River, MN: 1.3 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 1.2 inch
3 ENE Wright, MN: 1.1 inch
Weather Tidbit for Duluth, Minnesota
Have to go back to January 29, 2004 for the last time we had a temperature of -30 F or colder, and before then, February 2, 1996. We got close to -30 F on January 6, 2014 with a low of -28 F. Temperatures of -30 F or colder aren’t unusual in Duluth, but they don’t happen every year.
Record cold temperatures could be broken or tied next week
Note: Here is a list of next week’s records for Duluth, Minnesota. I included the dates where we have a chance at getting close, tying or breaking cold temperature records.
January 27:
Record cold high -18 F set in 1966
Record low: -33 F set in 1885
January 29:
Record cold high: -16 F set in 1951
Record low: -35 F set in 1951
January 30:
Record cold high: -11 F set in 1887
Record low: -35 F set in 1994
January 31:
Record cold high: -9 F set in 1971
Record low: -33 F set in 1885
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A strong arctic front moved through early today with a round of snow (Accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches) Strong NW winds (Peak wind gust of 37 mph at the Duluth Airport today) and intense cold air advection occurred behind this front with temperatures this afternoon ranging from the single digits below to single digits above zero. Northwest winds have been in the 10 to 20 mph range throughout the day with gusts over 30 mph which has caused areas of blowing snow.
RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows a mid/upper level trough digging south/east into the upper Midwest with 12-hour 500mb height falls of 60 to 90 meters. 500mb heights were down to 5100 decameters, with H5 temps of -40 to -42C across the Northland. 850mb temperatures have dropped to around -25 to -28C with thickness values around 490-495 meters.
Bitterly cold tonight under clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows ranging from the teens below to 30 below zero with a few spots in northern Minnesota possibly making a run at 40 below zero.
Frigid Friday. Partly to mostly sunny skies with highs ranging from around zero to the teens below.
A strong clipper system is expected to drop S-SE across the Northern Plains late this weekend. This system could bring some snow to parts of the Northland from Sunday evening through Monday, in addition winds could shift to the east for a time Sunday-Monday morning which could produce some lake effect snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Note: Model guidance keeps the greatest snowfall amounts with this late weekend clipper west-south of our area, but the track of this system could shift a bit over the next few days.
…Regarding next week’s cold… This could be big! Computer models have been throwing around the idea of thickness values lowering to less than 480 meters. 500mb heights possibly as low as 4900 decameters, with 850mb temps of -30 to around -42C. Incredible! I’ll be monitoring the model trends over the next few days to see if they moderate this arctic airmass at all before it dumps into the upper Midwest next week.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 25
High: 19
Low: 1
Sunrise Friday: 7:41 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 5:01 PM CST
Tim