Here’s my snowfall forecast for Thursday, most of this should occur from late morning through the afternoon hours.
•1 to 3 inches of snow across parts of northeast Minnesota, mainly north of Duluth.
•Orr, Hibbing, Ely, Silver Bay and Grand Marais are some cities that could get 1 to 3 inches of snow on Thursday.
•Snowfall of an inch or less farther west and south including for Duluth, and across far northern Wisconsin.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-13-19
Thursday’s snow maker tracks southeast out of Manitoba province in the form of a mid/upper level low, it will deepen into a closed low once it moves east of the Northland.
18z NAM model 2-13-19
There should be some decent lift crossing parts of the Northland from west to east during the day Thursday as the trough and upper low moves through, this could lead to a 3 to 6 hour window where some snow could fall on Thursday, especially across north-central and northeast Minnesota.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-13-19
An area of snow could affect parts of north-central and northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as it spreads from west to east during the day Thursday. Snow would taper off late in the afternoon. Note: If we get some snow in Duluth on Thursday it looks to fall roughly in the Noon to 4 PM time frame.
A good day with the mostly sunny skies this afternoon to get a good visual at the amount of ice that is currently covering Lake Superior.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-12-19
Still keeping an eye on late next week/next weekend for a period of active weather which could affect portions of the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Total snowfall map from the winter storm that hit the region on Monday-Tuesday, February 11-12, 2019.
Radar loop of Monday-Tuesday’s winter storm (February 11-12, 2019)
A much snowier winter this year compared to last winter in Duluth thru February 12 — Check out the stats below. Note: The average winter snowfall (Dec 1 to Feb 28) is 49.5 inches.
Winter 2018-2019 (Dec 1 to Feb 12)
Snowfall: 56.7 inches (+14.7 inches above normal)
Winter 2017-2018 (Dec 1 to Feb 12)
Snowfall: 24.2 inches (-17.8 inches below normal)
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•February 2019 currently ranks as the 7th snowiest February on record dating back to 1885. 26.5 inches of snow so far this month (thru the 12th) The snowiest February occurred in 1939 with 33.9 inches of snow. Note: Will need an additional 7.4 inches of snow the remainder of this month to tie the record from 1939, and 7.5 inches of snow to set a new monthly snowfall record for February. Will see what happens!
…Climate Data for February 12, 2019…
A new daily snowfall record was set for February 12 with 4.5 inches of snow on Tuesday. The previous record was 3.7 inches set in 1922.
4th greatest precipitation total for February 12 with 0.31 inches of precipitation on Tuesday. The record is 0.37 inches set in 1922.
International Falls, Minnesota
2nd snowiest February 12 on record with 1.7 inches of snow on Tuesday. The record snowiest is 3.2 inches set in 1994.
4th greatest precipitation total for February 12 with 0.10 inches of precipitation on Tuesday. The record is 0.30 inches set in 1984.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tuesday’s winter storm has moved into Quebec province today leaving behind a lot of sunshine across our area today with highs topping out mainly in the 20s, but a few spots managed to climb to around 30 degrees this afternoon. Note: If this isn’t a sign of spring, I don’t know what is, temperatures at 5 PM today ranged from 24 degrees at the Duluth Airport to 17 degrees at the Duluth Harbor, yes it was cooler by the lake this afternoon.
Changes are already taking place late this afternoon as clouds increase from the west as the next system approaches the area. A shot of warm air advection could be just enough to produce a little light snow or flurries across parts of the area later tonight but snowfall amounts would be under an inch. Lows tonight will range from around zero to the teens above.
Mostly cloudy skies on Thursday with some snow, especially across north-central and northeast Minnesota. Highs will be in the teens in northern Minnesota to the 20s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Colder Thursday night with lows in the single digits and teens below zero. Low pressure heads toward the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow night while high pressure builds in from the northwest. Northwest flow between the low and high will help drag some arctic air down into the Northland for the end of the week.
There is another system showing up in model data for late this weekend, but at the moment it looks like the swath of snow associated with that system would remain well to the south of our area. Winds could shift to the east on Sunday in response to that southern system, and this could cause a few lake effect snow showers along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 14
Sunrise Thursday: 7:15 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 5:32 PM CST