12z European model (ECMWF) 2-17-19
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-17-19
Locations near and south/east of the black line on map have a chance to get 3 inches or more of snow on Wednesday. Note: We could see that line shift north or south a bit over the next few days.
Forecast precipitation totals through next weekend would fluff up to around 4 to 6 inches of snow in Duluth, with snow events possible Wednesday, and again during the Friday night-Saturday time frame.
Note: Duluth is 5.3 inches shy of tying the February snowfall record of 33.9 inches which was set in 1939. There is a chance we could tie or break the February snowfall record this week.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, February 17, 2019.
Lake effect clouds and snow showers today along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior with cold temps and east winds over Lake Superior with enough open water (heat/moisture supply) to generate lake effect clouds and scattered snow showers today.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Sunday, February 17, 2019.
A messy looking system passing south of our area today with some snow across southern Minnesota with accumulations from 1 to around 4 inches.
Temperature departure map for the week of February 10 — Cooler than average temperatures across the area last week (greatest departures from normal in the darker green and blue colors on map)
Precipitation departure map for the week of February 10 — Another snowy week leading to well above normal precipitation totals, especially across parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with the black circled area on map having precip totals +200 to +400% above normal for the week.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
February 10-16, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
2/10: 16 F/-7 degrees below normal
2/11: 22 F/-1 degree below normal
2/12: 23 F/Normal
2/13: 28 F/+5 degrees above normal
2/14: 23 F/-1 degree below normal
2/15: 19 F/-5 degrees below normal
2/16: 18 F/-6 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
2/10: 5 F/+1 degree above normal
2/11: 16 F/+11 degrees above normal
2/12: 17 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/13: 11 F/+6 degrees above normal
2/14: 2 F/-4 degrees below normal
2/15: 0 F/-6 degrees below normal
2/16: -9 F/-15 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of February 10: 13.6 degrees (-0.7 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
State Average for Minnesota for the week of February 10
Temperature: 7.8 degrees
Departure: -8.1 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.47 inches
Departure: +0.32 inches above normal
Note: The winter of 2018-2019 has been a tale of two winters in Duluth, Minnesota with the beginning of it very mild, while the second half has turned very cold — See stats below.
December 1 to January 15: 83% of days were above normal; Only 17% below normal.
January 16 to February 16: 74% of days were below normal; Only 26% above normal.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•26 subzero nights so far this winter (since Dec 1) Average for a winter season (Dec 1 to Feb 28) is 34 subzero nights.
•8 one inch or greater snowfall events so far this month. The record for February is 10 one inch or greater snowfall events which was set in February 1955.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Mostly sunny skies across northern Minnesota today, more clouds farther south. Highs ranged from the mid teens to mid 20s (near normal to around 10 degrees below normal for February 17)
RAP model analysis from 3 PM Sunday showed a broad closed 500mb low stretching from eastern South Dakota to Iowa.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy skies. A few lake effect flurries and snow showers will continue near Lake Superior with NE winds along with -12 to -15C 850mb temperatures in place, not expecting any accumulation though. Some parts of the area will be quite cold early Monday morning with a wide range in overnight lows expected, ranging from around 10 above to around 20 below zero.
Monday: Mainly dry under partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs in the mid teens to lower 20s.
Tuesday and Tuesday night look dry followed by increasing chances for some snow on Wednesday as a rather strong trough heads E-NE out of the northern Rockies while an area of low pressure moves northeast out of the central Plains. Still some model differences showing up with precip/snow amounts for the Northland, but at the very least it’s looking like a 1 to 4 inch type of event, with the possibility for higher totals.
Note: Another snow event is possible sometime in the Friday-Saturday time frame, but this one holds a lot more uncertainty compared to Wednesday’s due to the potential for a split flow developing later this week. Computer models often struggle with split flow patterns, and this is probably why we’ve seen drastic changes take place in the Euro model which showed a major winter storm impacting the Northland next weekend per Saturday’s 12z run, but the last 2 Euro model runs have trended toward much less snow for our area with a farther south storm track with very little phasing between the northern and southern jets. So although it looks like there could be some additional snow late this week/next weekend, snowfall totals are very much up in the air at the moment.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 18
Sunrise Monday: 7:08 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:38 PM CST