Here we go again, rinse and repeat! Bitterly cold tonight, more snow on the way Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night.
•Wind Chill Advisory for all of northern and northeast Minnesota from 9 PM this evening thru early Tuesday morning. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero. Some cities included in the wind chill advisory are International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Brainerd, Aitkin, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Cook, Orr, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.
•Winter Weather Advisory for parts of northwest Wisconsin from Noon Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday. Snow expected with hazardous driving conditions as roads will become snow covered and slippery. The snow could impact the Tuesday evening commute. Snow will cause limited visibilities. Some cities included in the winter weather advisory are Grantsburg, Siren, Shell Lake, Minong and Hayward.
Here’s my snowfall forecast for Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.
This should be a fluffy snow with the cold airmass in place.
Greatest snow amounts over far southern portions of the Northland where 3 to 4 inches of snow is possible — Brainerd, Hinckley, Hayward areas.
1 to 3 inches of snow farther north from Grand Rapids and Aitkin to Duluth and Moose Lake into parts of northwest Wisconsin, from Superior and Solon Springs east to Ashland.
Around an inch of snow from Bigfork and Hibbing to Silver Bay.
Note: It’s possible we could see the winter weather advisory expanded westward into portions of east-central Minnesota.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-25-19
It will probably take a little while for the atmosphere to saturate on Tuesday, but we should see some snow develop late Tuesday morning or early Tuesday afternoon over east-central Minnesota, this snow is then forecast to lift farther north/east by late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Snow comes to an end from west to east early Wednesday morning.
Note: Snow could begin to fall in Duluth between 2-5 PM Tuesday the way it looks now, but there is some uncertainty as to when the snow begins as a few computer models show a later start time, it will all depend on how soon the airmass can saturate allowing snowflakes to reach the surface.
18z RGEM model 2-25-19
Record lows for February 26
International Falls: -32 F set in 2015 and 2011
Hibbing: -28 F set in 1963
Brainerd: -25 F set in 1963
Duluth: -22 F set in 1919
Ashland: -21 F set in 1963
Note: Could see a few locations from the list above make a run at their record low temperature for February 26.
This past weekend’s storm was a beast! Hurricane force wind gusts reported over eastern portions of Lake Superior Sunday evening with a gust to 74 mph at the Stannard Rock buoy. Incredible amounts of snow, drifting snow and blizzard conditions from south-central Minnesota through central and northern Wisconsin into western-central portions of upper Michigan. Certainly a memorable storm!
Peak Wind Gusts from February 24-25, 2019
Blatnik Bridge: 57 mph
2 SE Bayfield, WI: 56 mph
Bay of Grand Marais: 56 mph
Duluth Airport: 51 mph
Ashland, WI: 49 mph
Devils Island: 49 mph
Northome, MN: 49 mph
Duluth Harbor: 47 mph
Ely, MN: 45 mph
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 44 mph
Superior Airport: 44 mph
Grand Marais Airport: 43 mph
Two Harbors, MN: 43 mph
Cloquet, MN: 41 mph
2 SW Proctor, MN: 41 mph
Washburn, WI: 41 mph
Brainerd, MN: 40 mph
3 ENE South Range, WI: 40 mph
Grand Rapids, MN: 40 mph
International Falls, MN: 40 mph
3 WNW Twig, MN: 40 mph
Moose Lake, MN: 40 mph
Walker, MN: 40 mph
7 WNW Minong, WI: 39 mph
Silver Bay, MN: 38 mph
Hayward, WI: 38 mph
Cook, MN: 37 mph
Orr, MN: 37 mph
Siren, WI: 37 mph
1 ESE Esko, MN: 36 mph
Aitkin, MN: 33 mph
Glidden, WI: 33 mph
Hinckley, MN: 32 mph
Bigfork, MN: 31 mph
•29 subzero nights so far this winter (since Dec 1) at Duluth, Minnesota — Average for winter (Dec 1 to Feb 28) is 34 subzero nights.
•87.2 inches of snow so far this month at Marquette, Michigan, and no that’s not even a record for February! Their record snowfall total for the month of February is 91.9 inches set in 2002. Marquette’s snowfall total of 87.2 inches thru February 24th is around +30 inches above normal!
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A very cold late February day with increasing amounts of sunshine this afternoon as clouds from earlier in the day cleared out giving us a lot of late day sunshine! Highs today were only around zero to 5 above which is well below normal for February 25.
RAP model analysis from 5 PM Monday showed NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest with an arctic airmass overhead with 850mb temps of -22 to -26C from south to north across our area with thickness values ranging from around 505 to 495 meters.
Arctic high pressure will remain over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through Tuesday but some energy and weak lift moving east out of the northern Plains will lead to some accumulating snow for some parts of the area Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. Parameters in the dendritic growth zone or DGZ look to be most favorable over portions of northwest Wisconsin, possibly into far eastern Minnesota per SREF model, and that is the area where larger snowflakes are most likely to occur leading to greater snowfall accumulation compared to areas farther north where snowflake size is forecast to be smaller.
Tonight: Another bitterly cold night as lows fall into the teens and 20s below with a few of the typical cold spots possibly as cold as the 30s below. The only thing that may keep us a tiny bit warmer would be if clouds move in sooner than expected. Not much wind tonight, but it doesn’t take much wind with temps as cold as they are to drop your wind chill to around 30 to 35 below.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds through the day with some snow developing over southern portions of the area. Highs in the single digits to around 10 above, so yes a little warmer than Monday’s highs.
More snow chances late this week, although the Thursday system looks like it will pass south of our area, while the Friday system is still being handled differently in model guidance with some models showing some snow for our area, others keep that system much farther south, stay tuned! One thing looks certain and that is the cold temperatures aren’t going away through next week.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
…Wind Chill Advisory for Duluth from 9 PM tonight to 6 AM Tuesday…
.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Frigid. Low 12 below to 17 below. Wind west to northwest around 10 mph. Wind chills as low as 30 below.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Some snow is possible especially after 2 PM. Cold. High 6 to 11. Wind becoming south around 12 mph.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 26
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:54 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:50 PM CST