Radar update from late Tuesday afternoon 5:40 PM
Winter Weather Advisory for all of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota until 6 AM Wednesday. Some cities included in the winter weather advisory are Hinckley, Superior, Solon Springs, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurly, Siren, Shell Lake and Hayward.
Snow is expected with slippery road conditions. The snow could impact the Wednesday morning commute. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities.
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight
3 to 5 inches far southern portions of the area from around Hinckley and Sandstone, east to Hayward.
2 to 3 inches from the Brainerd Lakes to Moose Lake, Duluth and Two Harbors through most of northwest Wisconsin.
1 to 2 inches for Grand Rapids, Hibbing and Silver Bay.
Around an inch for Bigfork, Orr, Cook, Ely and Grand Marais.
Less than an inch of snow is expected along the Borderland, including in the International Falls area.
18z NAM model 2-26-19
Tonight’s system drops south/southeast out of southern Manitoba province, as it moves over our area later tonight it will enhance the lift in the atmosphere which will help produce some snow.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-26-19
•Already seeing some snow this afternoon in parts of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.
•Snow will develop farther north through this evening.
•It’ll be a fairly quick event with snow lasting roughly 8 hours in any given location.
•The snow will end from west to east Wednesday morning and should be out of our area by around 9 AM Wednesday.
Note: The snow is delayed by several hours for Duluth. I thought on Monday that we’d see the snow begin between 2-5 PM Tuesday, but also mentioned that a few computer models showed a later start time to the snow, and that later start time is verifying. Looks like the snow will begin to fall in Duluth between 7-9 PM tonight, snow should be out of the city between 5-7 AM Wednesday.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-26-19
Still keeping an eye on another system which could bring us some more snow on Friday. Amounts are still a bit uncertain, and we could see the swath of 3″+ snowfall shift a little north or south during the next few days. Stay tuned.
12z GEFS model 2-26-19
Colder than normal temperatures likely to persist through early March.
Temperature anomaly forecast valid through March 12 — Not much hope for any sustained warmth for the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes for the next 2 weeks.
Blue and purple colors: Below normal temperatures
Orange and red colors: Above normal temperatures
…Climate Data for February 25, 2019…
International Falls, Minnesota
A new daily record cold high temperature was set for February 25 with a high on Monday of -1 degree. The previous record cold high temperature for February 25 was 0 degrees set in 2011.
A new daily record cold high temperature was set for February 25 with a high on Monday of 0 degrees. The previous record cold high temperature for February 25 was 4 degrees set in 2014 and 2011.
2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for February 25 with a high on Monday of 2 degrees. The record cold high temperature for February 25 is -2 degrees set in 1934.
2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for February 25 with a high on Monday of 5 degrees. The record cold high temperature for February 25 is 0 degrees set in 1934.
4th lowest maximum temperature on record for February 25 with a high on Monday of 2 degrees. The record cold high temperature for February 25 is -10 degrees set in 1919.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
One round of snow is ongoing as of 5 PM today, this initial batch of snow impacted a small part of far eastern Minnesota, but mostly impacted southern portions of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. The rest of the area was mainly dry today under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Another cold day although slightly ‘warmer’ compared to Monday with highs today in the single digits to around 10 above zero.
RAP model analysis from 5 PM Tuesday showed the upper Midwest in westerly flow aloft but that won’t last very long thanks to a disturbance to our northwest which drops southeast and puts us back into NW flow on Wednesday. Strong winds aloft located south of that disturbance today with 120-140+ knot winds stretching from the northern Rockies, east through the upper Great Lakes.
Tonight: Periods of snow across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, extending north to the Twin Ports, North Shore and Iron Range while some flurries or a little light snow is possible in extreme northern Minnesota. Today’s snow over parts of northwest Wisconsin has been driven by a band of frontogenesis, mostly in the 850-700mb layer per mesoanalysis. Mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows ranging from around zero to the teens below (coldest temps in north-central Minnesota)
Wednesday: Snow ends from west to east early in the morning, otherwise we’re looking at partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the teens.
Snow chances could return to the Northland on Friday, but after that it looks like we may get a stretch of dry weather for most of next week. The bad news is that it looks very cold this weekend into next week with well below normal temperatures expected.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
Alerts — Winter Weather Advisory for Superior 9 PM tonight to 6 AM Wednesday
.Tonight… Snow gradually developing this evening (7-10 PM time frame) Snow overnight. Low 2 below to 3 above. Wind variable around 10 mph.
.Wednesday… Snow ending early (5-7 AM) Total snowfall accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Partly to mostly sunny. High 14 to 19. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for February 27
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:52 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 5:51 PM CST