Here’s my snowfall potential forecast for Friday’s event. Could see a few isolated 3″ totals in northwest Wisconsin but confidence isn’t high enough to include it on the map quite yet.
Timing: Spreading generally from west to east, beginning in western-southwest portions of the area Friday morning, then farther east Friday afternoon. Snow should end by late Friday evening the way it looks now.
What a spectacular view of ice conditions on Lake Superior from Wednesday, February 27, 2019 per Goes-16 satellite imagery — Ice coverage is at ~75% as of February 27.
Total snowfall map from Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday morning, February 26-27, 2019.
Most of us ended up with less snow than what was in the forecast for Tuesday night-Wednesday morning — This was especially true in east-central Minnesota, not as much in northwest Wisconsin where a few 3 inch totals were reported, but in east-central Minnesota, north to Duluth, snow amounts were generally around an inch or so (forecast was for 2 to 3 inches of snow)
Note: Snow to liquid ratios were only in the 10:1 range in Duluth last night, much lower than what the computer models were showing, models were showing ratios anywhere from around 20:1 to even as high as 30:1, and given how much precip we received (0.10 inches) that would’ve fluffed up to between 2.5 and 3.0 inches of snow if the ratios were as high as what the computer models were showing them to be.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-27-19
A very cold pattern is setting up for this weekend through the middle of next week. Could see record or near record cold across a large portion of the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest from March 2-5.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-27-19
Well here’s your temperature anomaly forecast for March 2 through 5. If you’re a fan of spring you’ll have to head to the southwest U.S. or the southeast U.S for above normal temperatures this weekend, elsewhere it looks very cold!
Blue, green and purple colors=Below normal temperatures
Orange and red colors=Above normal temperatures
Snowfall Reports for February 26-27, 2019
Trego, WI: 3.3 inch
Shell Lake, WI: 3.0 inch
Butternut, WI: 3.0 inch
Hayward, WI: 2.5 inch
Solon Springs, WI: 2.5 inch
Hertel, WI: 2.5 inch
1 S Siren, WI: 2.5 inch
5 W Washburn, WI: 2.0 inch
3 SW Pine Center, MN: 2.0 inch
Gile, WI: 2.0 inch
Brainerd, MN: 2.0 inch
3 N Brainerd, MN: 1.5 inch
3 SSW Bruno, MN: 1.5 inch
7 ESE Superior, WI: 1.4 inch
2 E Kettle River, MN: 1.3 inch
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 1.3 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 1.2 inch
Makinen, MN: 1.0 inch
Pine River, MN: 1.0 inch
1 N Cloquet, MN: 1.0 inch
Duluth Airport: 1.0 inch
Chisholm, MN: 1.0 inch
1 SSW Ely, MN: 0.6 inch
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 0.5 inch
…Climate Data for February 26, 2019…
A new daily record low temperature was set for February 26 with a low on Tuesday of -22 degrees. The previous record low temperature for February 26 was -21 degrees set in 1963.
4th lowest maximum temperature on record for February 26 with a high on Tuesday of 10 degrees. The record cold high temperature for February 26 is 3 degrees set in 1934.
International Falls, Minnesota
Record low temperature tied for February 26 with a low on Tuesday of -32 degrees. This ties the previous record low of -32 degrees set on February 26, 2015.
2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for February 26 with a high on Tuesday of 7 degrees. The record cold high temperature for February 26 is 4 degrees set in 2011.
3rd lowest minimum temperature on record for February 26 with a low on Tuesday of -25 degrees. The record low temperature for February 26 is -28 degrees set in 1963.
5th lowest maximum temperature on record for February 26 with a high on Tuesday of 7 degrees. The record cold high temperature for February 26 is -10 degrees set in 1919.
5th lowest minimum temperature on record for February 26 with a low on Tuesday of -19 degrees. The record low temperature for February 26 is -25 degrees set in 1963.
Note: Looks like the best chance for breaking or getting close to record cold temperatures will occur on Sunday and Monday, March 3-4 — See records list below.
Record cold high temps:
Duluth: March 3: 2 F (2002), March 4: 3 F (2015)
International Falls: March 3: 3 F (2002), March 4: 2 F (2015)
Ashland: March 3: 7 F (2007), March 4: 7 F (2015)
Brainerd: March 3: 5 F (2002), March 4: 3 F (2015)
Hibbing: March 3: 3 F (2002), March 4: 3 F (2015)
Record low temps:
Duluth: March 3: -23 F (2014), March 4: -18 F (1875)
International Falls: March 3: -33 F (2014), March 4: -25 F (2003)
Ashland: March 3: -24 F (1950), March 4: -24 F (1913)
Brainerd: March 3: -24 F (2014), March 4: -16 F (2015)
Hibbing: March 3: -33 F (2014), March 4: -18 F (2014)
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A lot of sunshine today but another chilly day with highs mostly in the lower to middle teens.
RAP model analysis from 5 PM Wednesday showed a NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest with a chilly airmass in place with 850mb temperatures around -18C.
High pressure off to our southwest (western South Dakota area) will move slowly off to the east through Friday. Meanwhile an area of low pressure will be centered to our north, this low will push a warm front through the area Thursday, followed by a cold frontal passage Friday.
Tonight: Some warm air advection and an increase in cloud cover from west to east during the night. Lows will be in the single digits and teens below zero. Winds will increase out of the west/southwest tonight with gusts to around 15 mph.
Thursday: Will end the month of February with no new snow but no thaw either. Highs will be in the upper teens to middle 20s under partly to mostly cloudy skies with southwest breezes 10 to 20 mph.
Looks like most of the area will get a little bit of snow on Friday with east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin having the best chance to pick up a few inches of snow on the 1st day of March which by the way is the start of Meteorological spring, or the 3 month period from March 1 to May 31.
It won’t feel at all like spring, though, with a frigid airmass locking in this weekend into the middle of next week with the coldest days looking to be Sunday and Monday.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… A clear start followed by some increase in clouds during the night. Low 2 below to 7 below. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph, gusts to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 20 to 25. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for February 28
Sunrise Thursday: 6:51 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 5:53 PM CST