Average dates of first 60 and 70 degree days at Duluth, Minn; Snow melt update, and the forecast for the next few days

/Issued 3:03 PM CDT, Sunday, March 31, 2019/

Source:  https://www.pivotalweather.com/

The next best chance for some precipitation in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin comes on Tuesday, but this doesn’t look too significant, with just scattered showers expected.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

A cool end to the weekend in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with high temps ~5 degrees below normal on this final day of March 2019.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, March 31, 2019 (Loop ending ~2:30 PM Sunday)

A weak system is passing southeast through portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest today with some light snow and rain, most of this precipitation has been over northwest and west-central Minnesota and is moving to the south/southeast.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European ensemble model (EPS) 3-31-19

Potential is there for high temperatures in the 60s and possibly even 70 degrees in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin next weekend (April 6-7) as we see an upper level ridge develop over the Great Lakes out ahead of a trough across the northern Plains, this will help shift the upper level winds to a warmer southwest direction from April 6-8.

Source:   http://www.sercc.com/

Temperature departure map for the week of March 24.  Above average temps continued last week across the Northland.

Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Precipitation departure map for the week of March 24.  Another dry week across the Northland.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

•High temperature of 33 degrees on March 30 was the coldest high temp since March 15, roughly 2 weeks ago, high on the 15th was 32 degrees.

•The last time we had at least 0.25 inches of precipitation was on March 13 (0.55 inch of precipitation)  18 days and counting since our last significant precipitation event.

•145 consecutive days with at least 1 inch snow depth (Airport location) from November 7 to March 31.  Note:  The winter of 2017-18 had 134 consecutive days with at least 1 inch snow depth from December 9 to April 21.

…Snow melt update, March 31, 2019…

•Lost another 9 inches of snow at the Duluth Airport last week (March 24-30)  And since March 1, around 2 feet of snow has melted.  Snow depth at the Airport was at 2 inches going into today, March 31.

•The pattern sure has changed this month, the average temperature from March 10 to March 30:  32.2 degrees (+4.7 degrees above normal)  We’ve picked up 1.01 inch of precipitation at the Duluth Airport from March 10 to March 30 which is right around normal for that time period.  This really has been about as perfect of a snow melt as one could draw up with a milder pattern and also a much drier/less stormy weather pattern for about the last 2-3 weeks, so we’ve lost a lot of snow, but avoided any major/widespread flooding across the Northland this month.

Snow depths from around the Northland as of Sunday morning, March 31, 2019
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Embarrass, MN:  12.0 inches
8.8 N Bayfield, WI:  12.0 inches
25 E Ely, MN:  10.0 inches
4 W Clam Lake, WI:  9.0 inches
2 NW Stone Lake, WI:  9.0 inches
4 E Island Lake, MN:  8.0 inches
6.1 N Grand Rapids, MN:  8.0 inches
Babbitt, MN:  7.0 inches
International Falls, MN:  6.0 inches
2 E Celina, MN:  6.0 inches
Winter, WI:  6.0 inches
Cook, MN:  4.0 inches
2.2 S Barnes, WI:  4.0 inches
3 E Wright, MN:  3.0 inches
Kabetogama, MN:  3.0 inches
Duluth Airport:  2.0 inches
Cotton, MN:  1.0 inch

Monday is the first day of April, here are the climate stats for the month of April at Duluth, Minnesota.

Temperature:  39.6 degrees
Precipitation:  2.43 inches
Snowfall:  6.9 inches

Normal high on the 1st:  41 degrees
Normal high on the 30th:  57 degrees

Normal low on the 1st:  24 degrees
Normal low on the 30th:  36 degrees

April records

Warmest:  46.1 degrees in 1987
Coldest:  28.7 degrees in 1950

Wettest:  8.18 inches in 2001
Driest:  0.24 inches in 1987

Snowiest:  50.8 inches in 2013
Driest:  0.0 inch in 1976

Note:  Averages from 1981-2010 climate period.

Number of days with a high of at least 60 degrees:  6
Number of days with a high of at least 70 degrees:  1

Average date for first 60 degree high temperature:  April 8
Average date for first 70 degree high temperature:  April 21

5 days with snowfall of at least 0.1 inch
2 days with snowfall of at least 1.0 inch

Astronomical Data for April

Sunrise on the 1st:  6:48 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  5:55 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  7:38 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  8:16 PM CDT

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

March 24-30, 2019

High Temperature/Departure from Normal

3/24:  39 F/+1 degree above normal
3/25:  41 F/+3 degrees above normal
3/26:  45 F/+6 degrees above normal
3/27:  58 F/+19 degrees above normal
3/28:  45 F/+5 degrees above normal
3/29:  44 F/+4 degrees above normal
3/30:  33 F/-7 degrees below normal

Low Temperature/Departure from Normal

3/24:  19 F/-2 degrees below normal
3/25:  11 F/-10 degrees below normal
3/26:  21 F/-1 degree below normal
3/27:  39 F/+17 degrees above normal
3/28:  28 F/+6 degrees above normal
3/29:  21 F/-2 degrees below normal
3/30:  20 F/-3 degrees below normal

Note:  Average temperature from March 24-30:  33.1 degrees (+2.7 degrees above normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total precipitation:  0.11 inch
Normal:  0.37 inch
Departure:  -0.26 inch below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 24, 2019
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  35.7 degrees
Departure:  +1.6 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.01 inch
Departure:  -0.40 inch below normal

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Northwest flow aloft continued today with a cool airmass in place with 850mb temperatures of -8 to -10C.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy today with patchy light snow and drizzle this afternoon in far western areas (Walker to Brainerd)

Tonight through Monday night:  Low pressure will move slowly southeast out of eastern South Dakota, this low will track near the Minnesota-Iowa border Monday, then will move into west-central Wisconsin Monday evening.  There won’t be much precipitation with this low, but a few areas of light snow showers or drizzle could occur in parts of the Northland tonight and Monday, but most of the area should stay dry.  Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s, but a few of the typical colder spots could drop into the single digits.  Highs Monday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday:  An area of low pressure will pass western/central Ontario province while a cold front attached to the low moves southeast and through the Northland on Tuesday.  This system will bring scattered rain showers to the area with a mix of rain and snow across far northern Minnesota.  Highs Tuesday are forecast to range from the mid 30s in far northern Minnesota to the 40s in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a few locations possibly approaching 50 degrees.

…Looking Ahead…

Wednesday and Thursday look dry at the moment with highs Wednesday in the 30s to lower 40s, highs Thursday mainly in the 40s.

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 19 to 24.  Wind variable 4 to 11 mph.

.Monday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind west 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Breezy.  A few showers possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.  Wind southwest 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday…  Cooler.  Partly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.  Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for April 1

High:  41 degrees
Low:  24 degrees

Sunrise on April 1:  6:48 AM CDT
Sunset on April 1:   7:38 PM CDT

2018-19 Snowfall totals thru March 27; Average date for last 1.0 inch snowfall for Duluth, MN, and past April snowfall totals (2000-2018)

Will see if we can add some more snow to what’s already fallen during the 2018-19 snow season.

Source:   https://lab.weathermodels.com

Snowfall stats for Duluth, Minnesota

•Average date for last snowfall of 0.1 inch:  April 23 (1981-2010 climate period)

•Average date for last snowfall of 1.0 inch:  April 9 (1981-2010 climate period)

Here’s a  look at when the last snowfall of at least an inch has occurred in Duluth, Minnesota from 2000-2018.

2000:  April 13
2001:  April 23
2002:  May 7
2003:  April 4
2004:  March 14
2005:  March 10
2006:  March 13
2007:  April 3
2008:  April 26
2009:  April 1
2010:  May 7
2011:  April 27
2012:  March 4
2013:  April 22
2014:  April 24
2015:  March 25
2016:  April 7
2017:  March 17
2018:  April 15

The month of April has actually been very snowy in Duluth recently with 53% of Aprils since 2000 having above average snowfall. 

Average April snowfall is 6.9 inches

April Snowfall Totals from 2000-2018

2000:  5.6 inches
2001:  7.7 inches
2002:  11.6 inches
2003:  12.9 inches
2004:  0.3 inches
2005:  0.5 inches
2006:  Trace
2007:  12.7 inches
2008:  14.6 inches
2009:  1.2 inches
2010:  Trace
2011:  10.6 inches
2012:  0.6 inches
2013:  50.8 inches
2014:  26.3 inches
2015:  1.2 inches
2016:  9.8 inches
2017:  1.9 inches
2018:  18.5 inches

•April 2013 was the snowiest April on record in Duluth (50.8″)
•April 2014 was the 3rd snowiest April on record in Duluth (26.3″)
•April 2018 was the 8th snowiest April on record in Duluth (18.5″)

Note:  Last April, Duluth picked up a foot of snow on the 15th!

In closing, spring has officially arrived, but we still have to get through the month of April which can be a snowy one, just look at what has happened recently, but hopefully this April won’t be a repeat of past Aprils, unless you want more snow, and I know at least a few of you do!

Northland Storm Reports from March 27, 2019, and the forecast for the next few days

/Issued 3:50 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 27, 2019/

Always an exciting time to hear those first rumbles of thunder after a long long long winter! Storms this morning contained occasional cloud to ground lightning strikes, brief downpours along with several reports of small hail, generally around pea sized!

Local Storm Reports from Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

11:33 AM:  2 ENE Hovland, MN (Cook County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

11:08 AM:  12 NE Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

9:44 AM:  Gile, WI (Iron County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

9:00 AM:  Washburn, WI (Bayfield County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

8:36 AM:  1 ENE Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

8:27 AM:  2 N West Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

8:11 AM:  2 NW Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch.  Pea size hail covering the ground.

7:50 AM:  1 WSW Maple, WI (Douglas County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

7:50 AM:  1 N Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch.  Hail covering the ground.

7:46 AM:  Bennett, WI (Douglas County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

7:42 AM:  3 SSW Wentworth, WI (Douglas County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch.  Pea to slightly larger hail covering the ground.

7:40 AM:  Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch.  Hail lasted for 2 minutes.

7:40 AM:  4 N Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

7:38 AM:  2 N Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

7:26 AM:  3 SE West Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

6:50 AM:  6 SW Webb Lake, WI (Burnett County)  HAIL — 0.25 inch

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Here’s how the thunderstorms looked on radar this morning as they developed over east-central Minnesota then lifted toward the east-northeast while additional thunderstorms erupted over the Arrowhead of Minnesota during the mid/late morning hours.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 infrared satellite loop from Wednesday morning, March 27, 2019.

The first thunderstorms of the year hit parts of the Northland this Wednesday morning thanks to a low level jet, warm and moist air advection, increasing amounts of elevated instability, steep mid level lapse rates and some lift associated with a northeastward moving warm frontal boundary, all those ingredients helped to kick off the first boomers of the spring season this morning.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

We had a real nice surge of warm air advection in the upper Midwest today with Wednesday afternoon 850mb temperatures as warm as +8 to +10C, but strong cold air advection is underway across the northern Plains late this afternoon, and this will spread farther south/east later tonight into Thursday.

Note:  850mb temperatures are forecast to fall to between -5 and -10C by 7 AM Thursday in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and they won’t be recovering at all through the weekend, in fact even colder air is set to move in Saturday-Sunday with 850mb temps of around -15C!

The good news is now that we’re into spring and we have longer days, temperatures won’t be bitterly cold by any means, just a lot cooler compared to what we had on Wednesday. 

Daytime highs on Thursday will range from the lower 30s in far northern Minnesota to the low to mid 40s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Friday in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Highs Saturday in the mid 20s to mid 30s.  Note:  Normal highs in late March are generally in the lower 40s, so will be quite a bit below normal especially Saturday and perhaps on Sunday too.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Today will likely be the last time Duluth has temperatures in the 50s for the rest of this month thanks to a cooler weather pattern which will be setting up later this week into the weekend.

Note:  We average 3 days during the month of March with a high of at least 50 degrees in Duluth, and so far this March we’ve had exactly 3 days in the 50s!


Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Clear to partly cloudy this evening followed by mostly cloudy skies.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind west to northwest 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday…  Cooler and breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind west to southwest 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  A few snow showers or flurries are possible Friday night.

Normal temperatures for March 28

High:  40
Low:   22

Sunrise Thursday:  6:56 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:32 PM CDT

Few showers (isolated t-storms?) Wednesday

/Issued 5:12 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 26, 2019/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF model 3-26-19

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF model 3-26-19

Radar forecast valid from 5 AM Wednesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

The combination of a warm front lifting northeast into our area, warm and moist advection, elevated CAPE of 100-400 J/kg and mid level lapse rates of 7.0 to around 8.0 c/km could be enough to generate a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm in parts of our area during the day Wednesday, widespread heavy rain is not expected but isolated brief downpours could occur in a few spots. 

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, March 26, 2019.

Quite a bit of sunshine across the Northland today, but clouds are increasing from west to east late this Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures were on the mild side across the area today with highs generally in the low to mid 40s which is slightly above normal for late March.

Note:  Today, March 26 marks the 15th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.  7/15 days have had a high temp of at least 40 degrees, and 2/15 days have had a high temp of at least 50 degrees.

Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Warm air and moisture advection will be occurring in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through Wednesday with 850mb temperatures of -1 to -3C at 5 PM Tuesday, climbing to around +5 to +10C by Wednesday afternoon while low level moisture increases with precipitable water increasing to around 0.50-0.75 inches during the day Wednesday.  All this occurs in response to a 30-50 knot southwest low level jet which will be over parts of the Northland on Wednesday.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

21z RAP model 3-26-19

We’re looking at another mild day across the Northland Wednesday with highs ranging from the lower 50s to around 60 degrees with the best chance at 60 degree temperatures occurring in southern portions of the area (Generally from the Brainerd Lakes, Moose Lake to Hayward Lakes area)

Note:  Cooler temperatures arrive late this week and should continue into this weekend, and there could be a few snow or rain showers at times Friday night-Saturday morning, and possibly again on Sunday but this doesn’t look like a big deal at the moment.

Duluth, Minnesota climate normals for March 27

High:  39
Low:  22

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:58 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:31 PM CDT

Tim

Mainly dry this week — Chilly start, warming up midweek!

/Issued 3:39 PM CDT, Sunday, March 24, 2019/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 3-24-19

Looks like another dry week for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin which will continue to help reduce the risk of widespread/significant snowmelt flooding, although ice jam flooding is possible on area rivers.  Snowmelt should be very slow to non-existent through Monday, but moderating temperatures will help melt more snow beginning Tuesday afternoon, and then continuing at least through Thursday.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Coldest airmass is over eastern Canada today and it will remain in that area and move farther south/east early this week.  Our area is on the western flank of this arctic airmass, but temps in our area will modify after Monday as milder air returns to the Northland.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, March 24, 2019.

A nice clearing trend from north to south across the area today as chilly/dry Canadian air pushes into the Northland.  Also of note is the remaining ice cover over Lake Superior which has shifted to the west-southwest today due to the strong northeast wind.

Check out the temperatures from early this Sunday afternoon.

A typical setup for early spring today with mild temps across southern Minnesota while a late winter chill along with strong northeast winds occurred near Lake Superior and farther inland from the lake today.

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of March 17 — A milder week across the Northland with the greatest departures from normal near the head of Lake Superior (red area on map)

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of March 17 — A very dry week across the area.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

•We lost 5 inches of snow last week at the Airport with a snow depth of 17 inches on the 17th, down to 12 inches on the 23rd.

•March 2019 is running -2.2 degrees below normal thru the 23rd, but this is a big time improvement compared to how far below normal we were earlier in the month.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

March 17-23, 2019

High temperatures/departure from normal

3/17:  38 F/+3 degrees above normal
3/18:  41 F/+6 degrees above normal
3/19:  43 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/20:  41 F/+5 degrees above normal
3/21:  53 F/+17 degrees above normal
3/22:  38 F/+1 degree above normal
3/23:  52 F/+15 degrees above normal

Low temperatures/departure from normal

3/17:  15 F/-3 degrees below normal
3/18:  21 F/+3 degrees above normal
3/19:  26 F/+7 degrees above normal
3/20:  35 F/+16 degrees above normal
3/21:  29 F/+9 degrees above normal
3/22:  27 F/+7 degrees above normal
3/23:  26 F/+6 degrees above normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of March 17:  34.6 degrees (+7.1 degrees above normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total precipitation:  Trace
Normal:  0.35 inches
Departure:  -0.35 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 17
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  31.5 degrees
Departure:  +0.9 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.00 inches
Departure:  -0.36 inches below normal

Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Colder temps and gusty winds were the big weather stories in our area today.  The amount of cold air advection that occurred today was fairly impressive.  850mb temps at 2 PM Sunday ranged from -8C at Grand Marais to -3C at Brainerd.  Temperatures this afternoon ranged from the upper 20s to lower 30s, a good 20 degrees colder compared to Saturday’s highs.  Winds were gusty out of the northeast with the strongest winds occurring near Lake Superior where wind gusts of 25 to around 35 mph have occurred for most of the day.

Tonight:  It’s going to be a cold late March night under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens, but a few locations could fall to around zero or even a few degrees below zero! Gusty northeast winds 15 to 30 mph will continue this evening near Lake Superior, but winds will diminish to 5 to 15 mph later tonight.  The rest of the area can expect north/northeast winds 5 to 15 mph.

Monday:  Looks like a pretty nice day as we should have lots of sunshine along with much lighter winds compared to Sunday.  Highs will be close to normal with readings in the mid 30s to low 40s with north-northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

…Looking Ahead…

What looked like a more active weather pattern for our area beginning later this week has been trending quieter as of late.  Will still have an area of low pressure along with its warm front and cold front pass through the area Wednesday into Thursday, and this system could produce a few showers around the area, but widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated at this time.  There is another system for late this week, but that one has also been shifting farther south/east and away from our area, so if we play our cards right, this week could be another dry one for most of the area.

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Breezy this evening.  Mostly clear.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind northeast 15 to 25 mph, decreasing to 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Mostly sunny.  High 35 to 40.  Wind northwest 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for March 25

High:  38
Low:   21

Sunrise Monday:  7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:28 PM CDT

Tim