Looks like the weather pattern is about to go bonkers once again. Basically been in a rinse/repeat type of weather pattern since about mid January (cold-snow-cold-snow)
•First off, if you want more snow I wouldn’t get your hopes up just yet, these storms especially in March have a tendency of shifting more to the south, so that will be something to monitor per model data during the next few days.
•Computer models are still in a bit of disagreement on the storm track with the Euro solutions remaining the farthest north which would mean greater impacts in terms of snowfall across most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin while the GEFS model is farther south, meaning less snow for most of the Northland.
•I have a broad area outlined for a potential winter storm due to the differing storm tracks (black outlined area on map) This area should become smaller during the next few days as computer models begin to agree on a storm track.
Timing: For Duluth, if this storm does hit us, it looks to be in the late Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon time frame.
12z European ensemble model 3-4-19
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday, March 4, 2019. An upper level low digging south/east out of eastern Manitoba province today. This system brought some clouds and a little bit of flurry/light snow activity to parts of the Northland today.
Temperatures look cold enough the next few days to make more lake ice, but as of Monday morning, March 4, Lake Superior was 90% ice covered.
Record cold maximum temperatures across the Northland on Sunday, March 3, 2019
New record cold daily maximum temperature set for March 3 with a high on Sunday of 1 degree. Previous coldest 2 degrees set on March 3, 2002.
3rd lowest minimum temperature on record for March 3 with a low on Sunday of -15 degrees. The record low for March 3 is -23 degrees set in 2014.
International Falls, Minnesota
New record cold daily maximum temperature set for March 3 with a high on Sunday of -2 degrees. Previous coldest 3 degrees set on March 3, 2002.
4th lowest minimum temperature on record for March 3 with a low on Sunday of -23 degrees. The record low temperature for March 3 is -33 degrees set in 2014.
New record cold daily maximum temperature set for March 3 with a high on Sunday of 4 degrees. Previous coldest 7 degrees set on March 3, 2002.
5th lowest minimum temperature on record for March 3 with a low on Sunday of -16 degrees. The record low for March 3 is -24 degrees set in 1950.
New record cold daily maximum temperature set for March 3 with a high on Sunday of -1 degree. Previous coldest was 5 degrees set on March 3, 2002.
2nd lowest minimum temperature on record for March 3 with a low on Sunday of -20 degrees. The record low temperature for March 3 is -24 degrees set in 2014.
New record cold daily maximum temperature set for March 3 with a high on Sunday of -3 degrees. Previous coldest was 3 degrees set on March 3, 2002.
3rd lowest minimum temperature on record for March 3 with a low on Sunday of -20 degrees. The record low temperature for March 3 is -33 degrees set in 2014.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
Low temperature of -19 degrees Monday morning (March 4) this is the 14th coldest temperature on record for the month of March (dating back to 1875)
Although Duluth didn’t hit -20 F this morning, I thought it be interesting to look back to how many times Duluth had a temp of -20 or colder in March, doesn’t happen very often. Temperature of -20 F or colder have only occurred 13 times during the month of March (dating back to 1875) Most recently in March 2014, prior to that was in March 1989. The coldest temperature on record for the month of March is -29 degrees set on March 2, 1989.
Low temperature reports from Monday morning, March 4, 2019
3 W Clam Lake, WI: -30 F
Kettle River, MN: -29 F
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: -28 F
2 NNW Cotton, MN: -28 F
3 N Butternut, WI: -27 F
2 ENE Oliver, WI: -26 F
3 WNW Twig, MN: -25 F
Brainerd, MN: -24 F
Crane Lake, MN: -24 F
4 SSE South Range, WI: -24 F
Pine River, MN: -24 F
3 E Wright, MN: -23 F
Bigfork, MN: -22 F
Glidden, WI: -22 F
Hayward, WI: -22 F
Hinckley, MN: -20 F
Moose Lake, MN: -20 F
Orr, MN: -20 F
Siren, WI: -20 F
Bruno, MN: -20 F
Longville, MN: -20 F
Duluth Airport: -19 F
1 W Isabella, MN: -19 F
Grand Marais Airport: -18 F
Ashland, WI: -17 F
Cloquet, MN: -17 F
Cook, MN: -17 F
Superior Airport: -17 F
2 SW Proctor, MN: -16 F
Aitkin, MN: -15 F
Silver Bay, MN: -15 F
Duluth Harbor: -15 F
Embarrass, MN: -15 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -15 F
Wind chill reports from Monday morning, March 4, 2019
3 W Clam Lake, WI: -41 F
Duluth Airport: -40 F
3 WNW Twig, MN: -38 F
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: -37 F
Brainerd, MN: -36 F
Siren, WI: -36 F
Ashland, WI: -35 F
Grand Marais Airport: -35 F
2 SW Proctor, MN: -35 F
Duluth Harbor: -34 F
Ely, MN: -34 F
Superior Airport: -34 F
Glidden, WI: -33 F
Two Harbors, MN: -33 F
Cloquet, MN: -32 F
Hayward, WI: -32 F
Washburn, WI: -32 F
Aitkin, MN: -31 F
International Falls, MN: -30 F
Moose Lake, MN: -30 F
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Record lows for March 4 were broken at Duluth, Hibbing and Brainerd this Monday morning.
Note: The record low for Duluth for March 4 was set in 1875, 144 years ago! Impressive!
More very cold temperatures today with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs were only in the single digits to around 10 above zero with gusty west winds to around 15-20 mph which made it feel even a little chillier.
There was a little bit of light snow and flurries which affected parts of the area today, but little to no snow accumulation has occurred.
RAP model analysis from 4 PM Monday showed NW flow aloft in place across the upper Midwest with an arctic airmass lingering over the area. 500mb heights were down to 5100 decameters with 850mb temperatures at around -22C.
Tonight: Lingering flurries and light snow showers especially this evening, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies. Cold, although not as frigid as the past few nights. Lows will be in the single digits and teens below, possibly a few 20s below in the typical colder locations. Brisk west or northwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting to around 25 mph.
Tuesday: Cold with highs in the 8 to 14 degree range. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few passing snow flurries possible.
Very little change in our airmass through Wednesday with 850mb temperatures of around -20 to -25C, this will keep our near-surface temperatures on the cold side through mid-week. 850mb temps start to modify on Thursday (around -10C) and this should help get our afternoon temperatures back into the upper teens to middle 20s, which is still colder than normal for early March.
Two potential trouble periods showing up per model guidance — One I already talked about (March 9-10) The other system to watch comes next week, during the 12th-14th time frame, this one could also bring some snow to the Northland if it tracks far enough to the north.
I don’t see any persistent or significant thaws happening around here looking out the next 2 weeks, meaning daytime highs of 40 degrees or warmer, instead it looks like we could have a couple days in the 30s, which really isn’t all that impressive considering our average highs are in the 30s!
Very little snow melt is expected through next week, in fact there is a decent chance we could be adding even more snow to what is already on the ground if the storm this weekend and the middle of next week hit us.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Very cold. Blustery. Partly to mostly cloudy. Few flurries possible. Low 3 below to 8 below. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Cold. Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 9 to 14. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for March 5
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:41 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 6:00 PM CST