…Winter Storm Update…
•Trends per model guidance from Wednesday is for the surface low to track further south, because of this I have trimmed the northern extent of greatest potential for 6″+ snowfall, but not too far south just in case we see the computer models trend back north just a bit. Typical computer model flip flops from day to day.
•I still think there is a chance the computer models are too far north with the area of snow as dry air and strong winds off Lake Superior could very well keep most of the snow south of Duluth and the South Shore. The NAM guidance seems to be heading in that general direction, although the NAM can be a useless computer model after 48 hours, but still is something to watch to see if other computer models start to trend toward the NAM solution, it wouldn’t surprise me if they did.
•I have Duluth in a lesser chance to get 6″+ snowfall this weekend with the greatest chance now south of Duluth.
Timing: If we do get some snow in Duluth, the most likely time frame for it to occur would be from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. It also looks windy with east winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. Some blowing and drifting snow is also possible Saturday night into Sunday.
Note: Still could see some shifts in the storm track the next 2 days which could also shift the area of heaviest snowfall a little further north or south. Stay tuned.
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 3-6-19
The upper level pattern appears to be locked in through next week and will feature two significant troughs coming out of the Rockies. The first trough affects the upper Midwest this weekend, the second trough sometime mid to late next week (March 13-15 time frame)
I know we still have to get through this weekend’s storm, but never too early to give you a heads up on another storm which could impact the upper Midwest and Great Lakes next week (March 13-15) this one might have a stronger push of warm air with it which could lead to more of a wintry mix of snow, rain and possibly even some freezing rain.
Significant amounts of snow, ice and rain are possible with next week’s storm.
If we end up getting rain, that could lead to an increase chance for flooding later next week.
…Climate Data for March 5, 2019…
A new daily record lowest maximum temperature was set for March 5 with a high on Tuesday of 11 degrees. The previous coldest was 13 degrees set on March 5, 2014.
2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for March 5 with a high on Tuesday of 10 degrees. The record cold high temperature for March 5 is 9 degrees set in 1943.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
It’s a broken record! Still looking at 2 to 3 feet of snow on the ground, gigantic snow banks, chilly temperatures with no signs of any significant warm up looking out the next 2 weeks, when I say significant I’m talking about daytime highs 40 degrees or warmer. Yes, I know will have a few days in the 30s during the next 2 weeks, but big deal, that’s right around average for this time of year, 30s really won’t do much to melt all this snow.
Highs today ranged from the lower teens to lower 20s, still well below normal by some 10-20 degrees for March 6. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy today with scattered flurries.
RAP model analysis from 4 PM Wednesday showed NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest. Airmass continues to modify as the arctic air which was over our area the last few days moves off to the E-NE. 850mb temperatures late this Wednesday afternoon ranged from -20 to -22C with 500mb heights of 520 to 534 decameters from NE-SW across the Northland.
Tonight: Another night of subzero temperatures, what else is new. Patchy clouds with lows in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero. Doesn’t look particularly windy though, so I guess if you’re looking for something positive there ya go. Northwest winds tonight in the 5 to 15 mph range.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the middle teens to middle 20s. Winds light and variable, becoming southwest.
Note: High pressure will be in control through Friday with moderating temperatures. 850mb temperatures of around -20C Wednesday afternoon will climb to around -12C Thursday afternoon, and to around -8C Friday afternoon. Some locations will likely climb into the lower 30s Friday afternoon. Duluth hasn’t been at or above freezing since January 8, or 57 days ago as of March 6. This streak could end on Friday, March 8 if the temperature climbs to 32 degrees at the Duluth Airport.
Top 3 longest streaks without a temperature of 32 F or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota
3: 59 days in 1929, 1971 and 1994
2: 72 days in 1979
1: 76 days in 1875
Likely won’t be breaking the record from 1875 of 76 days in a row with a temperature below the freezing mark.
A winter storm could impact parts of the Northland this weekend. Snow could push north into east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening, the snow would then continue through Sunday morning before ending Sunday afternoon. Looks like northern Minnesota would see the least amount of snow this weekend with areas of east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin having the best chance to get several inches of snow.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Cold. Partly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind northwest 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 20 to 25. Wind becoming southwest 6 to 13 mph.
Normal temperatures for March 7
Sunrise Thursday: 6:37 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 6:03 PM CST