3 PM Weather Update — Tonight’s system has been a real challenge to forecast, and it doesn’t help when you have computer model guidance that is changing every 6 hours, and one that has been changing nearly every hour.
•The dry air coming off Lake Superior will likely play a role in keeping the heaviest snow across far western-southern portions of the area tonight.
•Greatest snowfall amounts across the northwest portion of the area with 5 to 7 inches of snow possible from International Falls toward Bigfork and Walker.
•3 to 5 inches of snow for Cook, Hibbing, Grand Rapids, Hill City, Brainerd, Sandstone, Moose Lake, Bayfield, Ashland and Hayward.
•1 to 3 inches of snow for Duluth, the entire North Shore, Ely, Superior and Port Wing.
Note: I’m continuing to lean toward less snow for Duluth compared to what some of the computer models have been showing for this event. I just think the strong and dry NE wind coming off Lake Superior is going to eat away at the snow as it inches closer to Duluth this evening, eventually we should see some snow move into Duluth as the lake influence diminishes, but this probably won’t happen until late this evening or early Sunday morning. I figured this system would slow down, that doesn’t surprise me at all, so a later start time to the snow is certainly the way to go.
•Use caution if you have travel plans tonight through Sunday morning as road conditions will deteriorate once the snow begins. Expect snow covered and slippery roads later tonight-Sunday morning with limited visibilities due to falling snow and some blowing snow.
National Weather Service winter weather headlines map as of 3:37 PM Saturday, March 9, 2019.
Winter storm warning in pink
Winter weather advisory in purple
Snow in blue
Rain in green
Precipitation is lifting slowly north and east late this Saturday afternoon, and that trend should continue tonight.
Low pressure of 992mb was located over northwest Missouri/southwest Iowa at 2 PM Saturday, this low will move northeast, reaching northwest lower Michigan by daybreak. The surface low will deepen a bit as it moves NE with a central pressure lowering to ~988mb.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Saturday, March 9, 2019.
A classic looking and powerful March storm lifting northeast out of the central Plains today with snow on the cold side (NW side of low pressure) and severe weather on the warm side (SE side of low pressure)
Goes-16 infrared satellite loop from Saturday, March 9, 2019.
18z NAM 3-9-19
Snow will gradually move into the Northland from the west and south this evening and during the overnight hours. Snow will end during the day Sunday from west to east.
For Duluth — Snow should begin between 8 PM and Midnight tonight. Strong east to northeast winds will continue through this evening with wind gusts 25 to around 35 mph. Winds will diminish and shift to the northwest early Sunday morning. Northwest winds will then increase during the day Sunday with gusts to around 30 mph possible.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
High temperature of 32 degrees on March 8 was the first time since January 8 with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees.
High temperature made it above freezing today, March 9 — This is the first day with an above freezing temperature since January 7.
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map