Active weather pattern continues this week with another major storm possible mid to late week.
•Keeping an eye on what could be a very strong area of low pressure which lifts northeast out of the central Plains later this week. The central pressure of the low could bottom out at around 975mb (28.75″) Wednesday night!
•This storm could bring a variety of impacts to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday through Friday.
•Rainfall amounts of a half inch to one inch (locally higher amounts?)
•Moderate rainfall with the frozen ground may lead to street flooding Wednesday evening-Thursday
•Rain changing to snow from west to east Thursday/Thursday night with the greatest chance for significant snowfall amounts across north-central Minnesota.
•Low chance for freezing rain/wintry mix near Lake Superior Wednesday night-Thursday morning due to the strong NE wind coming off the nearly frozen Lake Superior, this could prevent surface temps from climbing above 32 degrees near Lake Superior, and this would increase the chance for some icing.
18z NAM 3-10-19
No doubt about that, this midweek storm will have a ton of moisture with it.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 3-10-19
Keeping a close eye on this massive upper level ridge which is forecast to develop over the northwest U.S. and western Canada during the week of March 17 — If this ridge builds farther east, then we could see a much milder temperature pattern setup across the northern Plains and upper Midwest next week, although right now it looks like the warmest temps would remain over western Canada and Pacific northwest with near to slightly below normal temperatures for the upper Midwest as we remain in a NW flow aloft.
Temperature departure map for the week of March 3, 2019 — Another week, another week in the freezer across all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with average temperatures for the 7-day period some 15 to 25 degrees colder than normal!
Precipitation departure map for the week of March 3, 2019 — A drier week over most of the area, the exception to this was in extreme northern Minnesota, around the International Falls area (green colors on map) that area saw above average precipitation totals last week.
Snowfall Reports from around the Northland
Date: March 9-10, 2019
Deerwood, MN: 9.0 inch
Remer, MN: 8.0 inch
Lake Nebagamon, WI: 7.0 inch
3 N Brainerd, MN: 6.9 inch
Aitkin, MN: 6.7 inch
Oulu, WI: 6.0 inch
Glidden, WI: 6.0 inch
Winter, WI: 6.0 inch
2 NW Sandstone, MN: 6.0 inch
Maple, WI: 6.0 inch
International Falls, MN: 5.8 inch
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 5.5 inch
Grantsburg, WI: 5.5 inch
Alborn, MN: 5.2 inch
1 W Grand Rapids, MN: 5.0 inch
2 NW Gary New Duluth, MN: 5.0 inch
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 5.0 inch
Coleraine, MN: 5.0 inch
1 WSW Maple, WI: 4.9 inch
6 N Knife River, MN: 4.5 inch
Hill City, MN: 4.5 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 4.5 inch
1 N Cloquet, MN: 4.5 inch
Duluth Airport: 4.5 inch
Hinckley, MN: 4.4 inch
Trego, WI: 4.3 inch
Island Lake, MN: 4.2 inch
2 NE West Duluth, MN: 4.0 inch
Knife River, MN: 4.0 inch
14 W Isabella, MN: 4.0 inch
5 SW Webb Lake, WI: 3.8 inch
1 W Solon Springs, WI: 3.8 inch
7 ESE Superior, WI: 3.8 inch
4 N Hayward, WI: 3.8 inch
Trego, WI: 3.5 inch
Wrenshall, MN: 3.5 inch
Siren, WI: 3.5 inch
1 ENE Silver Bay, MN: 3.1 inch
1 WSW Two Harbors, MN: 3.0 inch
4 SSE Webster, WI: 3.0 inch
Embarrass, MN: 2.4 inch
Ely, MN: 1.8 inch
Cook, MN: 1.2 inch
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
March 3-9, 2019
*=Record low temperature for the date
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/3: 1 F/-28 degrees below normal
3/4: 8 F/-22 degrees below normal
3/5: 12 F/-18 degrees below normal
3/6: 20 F/-10 degrees below normal
3/7: 22 F/-9 degrees below normal
3/8: 32 F/+1 degree above normal
3/9: 36 F/+4 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/3: -15 F/-27 degrees below normal
*3/4: -19 F/-32 degrees below normal
3/5: -4 F/-17 degrees below normal
3/6: -5 F/-19 degrees below normal
3/7: -11 F/-25 degrees below normal
3/8: 8 F/-6 degrees below normal
3/9: 16 F/+1 degree above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of March 3: 7.2 degrees (-14.7 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.05 inches
Normal: 0.30 inches
Departure: -0.25 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 3, 2019
Temperature: 4.2 degrees
Departure: -20.0 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.09 inches
Departure: -0.17 inches below normal
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure which brought the snow to the area Saturday night and Sunday morning has moved to the northeast of Lake Superior this Sunday afternoon, in its wake were gusty NW winds and a push of cold air advection with patchy blowing snow along with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs today ranged from the lower 20s to lower 30s (Near normal to as much as 10 degrees below normal for March 10)
Tonight: Light snow will linger this evening over far northeast Minnesota as a mid/upper level trough moves through the area, additional snowfall amounts of around an inch are possible in the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead. Looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits and teens, although some locations could go below zero depending on sky conditions and wind speeds. Speaking of the wind, they will remain out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 35 mph this evening.
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s. High pressure moves across the Hawkeye state (aka Iowa) which will give our area a cool but not terribly cold late winter day with northwest winds becoming southwest later in the day.
Certainly looks like we’re in store for an unsettled stretch of weather beginning late Tuesday and lasting possibly through Friday, so if you like sunshine, then you better soak it up on Monday because after that sky conditions look pretty cloudy for a couple days.
Deeper moisture advects into the area Tuesday while an upper level disturbance lifts NE through the upper Midwest. Could see some light rain (patchy freezing rain) develop late Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night across the Northland.
A break in precipitation is possible most of Wednesday before the main storm moves in from the south later in the day Wednesday or Wednesday night — An incredible amount of moisture is forecast to accompany this storm with precipitable water values of 0.50 to around 1.00 inch which would be 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal for mid March. What this means is there is potential for significant amounts of precipitation across the Northland late Wednesday into Thursday.
Note: With all the snow still on the ground combined with higher dew points and warmer temperatures, the potential for fog will increase across the area late Tuesday through Thursday.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 7 to 11. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph, gusts to 30 mph this evening.
.Monday… Some sun. High 27 to 32. Wind northwest to west 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for March 11
Sunrise Monday: 7:30 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:09 PM CDT