Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/
Note: We could see additional flood watches and winter storm watches/advisories issued farther north the next 24 hours from where the current headlines are in effect as of this late Monday afternoon.
…Expected Storm Impacts for the Northland…
•Greatest chance of heavy snow and possibly some sleet/freezing rain across parts of north-central Minnesota late Wednesday night-Thursday.
•Rain, possibly heavy at times for northeast and east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Rain could mix with and change to snow Thursday afternoon/evening.
•Low chance for patchy freezing rain (some ice accumulation Wednesday night-Thursday morning near Lake Superior. Gusty northeast wind 20 to 35 mph.
•Isolated thunderstorms possible late Wednesday into Thursday mainly over northwest Wisconsin.
•Street flooding and ponding of water is possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning across parts of the Northland.
•Snow melt the next few days combined with more humid air and rainfall will lead to areas of fog which could be dense at times from Tuesday night through Thursday morning.
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 3-11-19
A powerful and textbook storm on the way for Wednesday and Thursday as a strong area of low pressure lifts northeast out of western Kansas — Warm (above average temps) east of the low with that warm air bending back into the upper Midwest while colder (below average temps) west and southwest of the low surge NE as the low pulls away later this week.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 3-11-19
This low is going to be a beast as it heads northeast out of western Kansas on Wednesday. The central pressure of the surface low could bottom out at around 973mb (28.73″ of mercury) Wednesday evening over Kansas before the surface low slowly weakens as it lifts northeast through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes on Thursday.
Note: Read more about the blizzard that is forecast to develop Wednesday into Thursday across parts of the western High Plains and northern Plains at this link – https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd
Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday, March 11, 2019.
The storm that will impact the Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through late this week is beginning to push into the southwest U.S. late this Monday afternoon.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 3-11-19
Temperature anomaly forecast valid March 12 through 18.
Orange and red colors=Above normal temperatures
Blue and green colors=Below normal temperatures
Here in the Northland will have above normal temperatures the next few days, but colder air returns late this week into this weekend. Normal highs are generally in the low to mid 30s; Normal lows are in the teens. The overnight lows will be running well above normal the next few days while the daytime highs will be slightly above normal through Thursday.
Source: https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov
This is encouraging! Lake Superior ice coverage has dropped below 90% as of Monday morning, March 11 (~86% ice coverage)
Ice coverage peaked at ~95% this year, and its unlikely that it would increase very much the next few weeks.
By the way the water temperature of Lake Superior is right around 32-33 degrees as of March 11.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Mostly sunny skies and near normal temps across the area today with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds weren’t as strong as they were on Sunday. Winds today out of the west, southwest or northwest at 5 to 15 mph, gusts to around 20 mph.
Surface map at 6 PM Monday had an area of high pressure of 1030mb over eastern Iowa. Warm air advection is occurring northwest of this high across the northern Plains and upper Midwest this afternoon as southerly winds develop.
RAP model analysis from late Monday afternoon showed NW 500mb flow covering the upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures ranged from +4C at Rapid City, South Dakota to -2C at Fargo, North Dakota to -10C at Grand Marais, Minnesota.
Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy skies with the possibility for some stratus clouds/areas of fog later in the night as moisture continues to increase. Lows will be in the single digits and teens with south-southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday: Could be some sun in parts of the area, especially northern areas while more clouds than sun are expected in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. SW low level jet increasing to 30-45 knots will advect deeper moisture into the area with precipitable water values ranging from around 0.45 inches in northeast Minnesota to around 0.75 inches across northwest Wisconsin. Scattered showers are expected to develop later in the day into Tuesday night, primarily over northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota. Note: Areas of fog and drizzle (patchy freezing drizzle) should become more widespread across the area Tuesday night. Mild temperatures Tuesday with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
…Looking Ahead…
Areas of fog and drizzle Wednesday with rain becoming widespread during the afternoon. Widespread rain continues Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Bands of heavy rain and possibly even a few rumbles of thunder will be embedded in the large area of light-moderate rain with the best chance for isolated thunderstorms across northwest Wisconsin where some elevated CAPE is forecast to develop (around 100-200 J/kg)
Colder air wraps into north-central Minnesota late Wednesday night/Thursday morning which should cause the rain to mix with or change to snow, sleet and freezing rain — This transition zone from rain to wintry precipitation is then forecast to push farther south/east Thursday afternoon/evening as strong cold air advection develops as low pressure pulls off to the east.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Clear with some clouds arriving late. Low 13 to 18. Wind south to southwest 4 to 12 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible later in the day. High 37 to 42. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for March 12
High: 33
Low: 16
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:28 PM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 7:10 PM CDT
Tim