50 degree watch! It’s possible that Duluth sees their first 50 degree temperature of 2019 later this week. Not unusual to get temps in the 50s this month, in fact Duluth averages 3 days in the 50s during the month of March.
Lake Superior ice coverage has been fluctuating quite a bit lately which isn’t unusual as we move from late winter to early spring. As of Sunday morning, March 17, ~69% of Lake Superior was covered by ice, while just a few days ago on the 14th, ice coverage was still at 84%!
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 3-17-19
Probability of 50 degree or warmer temperatures from Wednesday, March 21 to Sunday, March 24. Chances for seeing temps in the 50s are rather high across the Northland later this week, especially in the Friday-Saturday time frame. Wind direction will determine whether or not this warmth will be felt near Lake Superior (east wind=cooler) while a (southwest wind=warmer)
12z GEFS model 3-17-19
A dry week ahead across the upper Midwest, but a more unsettled/stormy weather pattern could return ~March 24 through the first few days of April.
Temperature departure map for the week of March 10 — Above to near normal temps across the area last week.
Precipitation departure map for the week of March 10 — Above normal precipitation across the entire area last week.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
March 10-16, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/10: 31 F/-1 degree below normal
3/11: 31 F/-1 degree below normal
3/12: 41 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/13: 39 F/+6 degrees above normal
3/14: 41 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/15: 32 F/-2 degrees below normal
3/16: 34 F/Normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/10: 15 F/Normal
3/11: 9 F/-7 degrees below normal
3/12: 19 F/+3 degrees above normal
3/13: 35 F/+19 degrees above normal
3/14: 32 F/+15 degrees above normal
3/15: 25 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/16: 20 F/+2 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of March 10: 28.9 degrees (+4.2 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.90 inches
Normal: 0.32 inches
Departure: +0.58 inches above normal
State average for Minnesota for the week of March 10, 2019
Temperature: 26.5 degrees
Departure: -0.9 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 1.53 inches
Departure: +0.19 inches above normal
Weather tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•The streak has ended! 8 consecutive weeks where the average temperature was below normal — This streak started the week of January 13 and continued through the week of March 3, but this streak ended last week with the average temperature finishing 4.2 degrees above normal!
•Average date for first 50 degree temperature is March 18 (1981-2010 climate period) We could see our first 50 degree temperature sometime later this week. Last year, our first 50 degree temperature didn’t occur until April 19, but in 2017 the first 50 occurred on February 17!
Weather Outlook for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Valid: March 17 through March 23.
Overall this week looks nice.
Daytime highs will be on the mild side which will help melt some more snow especially mid to late week, while nighttime lows will fall below freezing which will stop snow from melting during the overnight hours — All in all a nice and slow snow melt this week with no big rain or snow events.
No major storms are on the horizon, but there could be a few flurries or snow showers around the area tonight through Tuesday morning, but they should be spotty, and not really amount to much, perhaps a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation tonight, and again Monday night, so the typical just when you think spring has sprung, mother nature decides to throw a few snow flurries down on us.
Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s, highs Monday in the 30s, but a few locations could approach 40 degrees. Highs in the 30s and 40s are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, and by late in the week some of us could have highs approaching 50 degrees, if not even a little warmer!
Climate data for Duluth, Minnesota
Normal high on the 18th: 35 degrees
Normal high on the 23rd: 37 degrees
Normal low on the 18th: 18 degrees
Normal low on the 23rd: 20 degrees
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Some clouds. Spotty flurries possible. Low 17 to 22. Wind west around 10 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 36 to 41. Wind west 10 to 15 mph.