18z NAM-Nest model 3-19-19
Radar forecast valid at 4 AM Wednesday.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery from Tuesday, March 19, 2019.
A small but vigorous disturbance digging south/southeast across eastern Manitoba province/western Ontario province this afternoon — This feature will sweep through the Northland late tonight-Wednesday morning with some snow and mixed precipitation.
18z NAM model 3-19-19
500mb vorticity forecast showing the strong but quick moving disturbance dropping south through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late tonight into Wednesday morning.
18z NAM-WRF model 3-19-19
Radar forecast for Wednesday 1 AM to 1 PM showing the progression of the snow showers (blue colors on map) Snowfall amounts from a dusting to an inch are possible Wednesday morning over parts of the area, whatever snow accumulates melts by the afternoon.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 3-19-19
One big thing I’m noticing in short range model guidance is for temperatures to not be as warm as previously expected for Friday and Saturday. Note: I don’t think Duluth hits 50 degrees either day, but if we did, Saturday looks to be the day for that to happen.
Also continuing to see cooler risks which are increasing for next week into early April, with the coolest temps compared to average possibly occurring early next week, and then again around March 29 to April 3.
Temperature anomaly forecast valid from March 22 to April 3.
Orange and red colors on map=Above normal temperatures
Blue and green colors=Below normal temperatures
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•Today, March 19 marks the 8th consecutive day with a high temperature at or above 32 degrees! 4 out of the 8 days have a had a high temperature in the 40s!
•Although temperatures have been milder the last few days — March 2019 is still running 5.3 degrees cooler than normal as of the 18th thanks to the abnormally cold start to the month.
Weather Forecast for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Valid: March 19 through 23
Tonight: Increasing cloudiness. Breezy southwest wind 10 to 20, gusts to 30 mph. Scattered snow showers or mixed snow and drizzle spreading south/southeast across parts of the area late tonight/Wednesday morning. Lows in the lower 20s to lower 30s (coolest temps over far southern portions of the area)
Wednesday: Scattered snow showers or mixed showers during the morning followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies. Snowfall accumulations of a dusting to around an inch possible. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s with a north-northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, gusts to 25 mph.
Thursday through Saturday: Mainly dry. Looking at daytime highs in the 30s to lower 40s Thursday and Friday, and maybe some mid 40s for some of us on Saturday.
Although exact details are far from certain, the final few days of March into the first few days of April could turn a bit active once again with potential for some rain and snow across the northern Plains and upper Midwest per long range model trends.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for March 20
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:12 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:21 PM CDT