12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 3-24-19
Looks like another dry week for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin which will continue to help reduce the risk of widespread/significant snowmelt flooding, although ice jam flooding is possible on area rivers. Snowmelt should be very slow to non-existent through Monday, but moderating temperatures will help melt more snow beginning Tuesday afternoon, and then continuing at least through Thursday.
Coldest airmass is over eastern Canada today and it will remain in that area and move farther south/east early this week. Our area is on the western flank of this arctic airmass, but temps in our area will modify after Monday as milder air returns to the Northland.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, March 24, 2019.
A nice clearing trend from north to south across the area today as chilly/dry Canadian air pushes into the Northland. Also of note is the remaining ice cover over Lake Superior which has shifted to the west-southwest today due to the strong northeast wind.
Check out the temperatures from early this Sunday afternoon.
A typical setup for early spring today with mild temps across southern Minnesota while a late winter chill along with strong northeast winds occurred near Lake Superior and farther inland from the lake today.
Temperature departure map for the week of March 17 — A milder week across the Northland with the greatest departures from normal near the head of Lake Superior (red area on map)
Precipitation departure map for the week of March 17 — A very dry week across the area.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•We lost 5 inches of snow last week at the Airport with a snow depth of 17 inches on the 17th, down to 12 inches on the 23rd.
•March 2019 is running -2.2 degrees below normal thru the 23rd, but this is a big time improvement compared to how far below normal we were earlier in the month.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
March 17-23, 2019
High temperatures/departure from normal
3/17: 38 F/+3 degrees above normal
3/18: 41 F/+6 degrees above normal
3/19: 43 F/+8 degrees above normal
3/20: 41 F/+5 degrees above normal
3/21: 53 F/+17 degrees above normal
3/22: 38 F/+1 degree above normal
3/23: 52 F/+15 degrees above normal
Low temperatures/departure from normal
3/17: 15 F/-3 degrees below normal
3/18: 21 F/+3 degrees above normal
3/19: 26 F/+7 degrees above normal
3/20: 35 F/+16 degrees above normal
3/21: 29 F/+9 degrees above normal
3/22: 27 F/+7 degrees above normal
3/23: 26 F/+6 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of March 17: 34.6 degrees (+7.1 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: Trace
Normal: 0.35 inches
Departure: -0.35 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 17
Temperature: 31.5 degrees
Departure: +0.9 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.00 inches
Departure: -0.36 inches below normal
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Colder temps and gusty winds were the big weather stories in our area today. The amount of cold air advection that occurred today was fairly impressive. 850mb temps at 2 PM Sunday ranged from -8C at Grand Marais to -3C at Brainerd. Temperatures this afternoon ranged from the upper 20s to lower 30s, a good 20 degrees colder compared to Saturday’s highs. Winds were gusty out of the northeast with the strongest winds occurring near Lake Superior where wind gusts of 25 to around 35 mph have occurred for most of the day.
Tonight: It’s going to be a cold late March night under clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the single digits and teens, but a few locations could fall to around zero or even a few degrees below zero! Gusty northeast winds 15 to 30 mph will continue this evening near Lake Superior, but winds will diminish to 5 to 15 mph later tonight. The rest of the area can expect north/northeast winds 5 to 15 mph.
Monday: Looks like a pretty nice day as we should have lots of sunshine along with much lighter winds compared to Sunday. Highs will be close to normal with readings in the mid 30s to low 40s with north-northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
What looked like a more active weather pattern for our area beginning later this week has been trending quieter as of late. Will still have an area of low pressure along with its warm front and cold front pass through the area Wednesday into Thursday, and this system could produce a few showers around the area, but widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated at this time. There is another system for late this week, but that one has also been shifting farther south/east and away from our area, so if we play our cards right, this week could be another dry one for most of the area.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Breezy this evening. Mostly clear. Low 12 to 17. Wind northeast 15 to 25 mph, decreasing to 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Mostly sunny. High 35 to 40. Wind northwest 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for March 25
Sunrise Monday: 7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:28 PM CDT