The last band of rain associated with this weekend’s system is moving east across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this Sunday afternoon. The rain will end this evening from west to east with some clearing moving east out of western Minnesota tonight. Temperatures at 4 PM Sunday ranged from the upper 30s near Lake Superior to the 60s in parts of western Minnesota.
18z HRRR model 4-7-19
Another round of rain is on the way for Monday. Expect occasional showers throughout the day with some dry hours mixed in (possibly even a few peeks of sun)
18z HRRR model 4-7-19
Radar forecast valid from 7 AM Monday to 10 PM Monday. An area of rain could impact parts of the Northland on Monday, ending from west to east, followed by a few spotty showers later in the afternoon-evening hours.
The big weather story this week is the potential winter storm for mid to late week
Updated: 3 PM Sunday, April 7
•A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move into the western High Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This low is then forecast to track to the northeast through Friday, following one of the two black lines on the map below, or between the black lines.
•Heavy snow and strong winds are possible to the north/northwest of the surface low with a dangerous winter storm, possibly a blizzard affecting parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest from Wednesday through Friday.
•Computer models continue to show incredibly high snowfall totals for mid to late week on the order of 1 to 3 feet (based on a snow to liquid ratio of 10:1) across portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
•Although temperatures have been milder as of late, the ground is thawed out at least somewhat due to the recent mild temps, melting snow and some rain, but despite this, the snow later this week will be able to stick, although it could take a little while for it to start sticking, but it will do so with below freezing temperatures expected, also if the snow falls heavily enough it will accumulate!
•I’m continuing to take a very cautious approach with my forecast as the storm track may still shift, either farther south, or possibly more to the north. The farther north the storm track is, the higher the chance for getting some heavy snow will be in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this week.
•For now I have a low chance of snowfall of 4″+ across most of northeast and east-central Minnesota including Duluth, and over far northwest Wisconsin. A higher chance of snowfall of 4″+ a little farther south.
•Strong northeast winds are expected Wednesday through Friday with the potential for 30-40+ mph wind gusts especially near Lake Superior.
•Timing: Snow could move into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday night, but may hold off until Thursday. Snow could then linger through most of the day Friday, although at the moment it appears that the heaviest snow would fall from Thursday into Thursday night.
This is a storm to watch as there is a chance that a powerful winter storm hits parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin later this week.
Temperature departure map for the week of March 31 — Much of the Northland had below average temperatures last week by 1 to nearly 8 degrees, the exception to this was near the head of Lake Superior and along the South Shore, here the average temps last week were right around a degree above normal.
Precipitation departure map for the week of March 31 — Below normal precipitation totals across the Northland last week.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
March 31-April 6, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/31: 39 F/-2 degrees below normal
4/1: 42 F/+1 degree above normal
4/2: 46 F/+4 degrees above normal
4/3: 43 F/Normal
4/4: 40 F/-3 degrees below normal
4/5: 48 F/+4 degrees above normal
4/6: 43 F/-1 degree below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
3/31: 18 F/-6 degrees below normal
4/1: 21 F/-3 degrees below normal
4/2: 28 F/+4 degrees above normal
4/3: 25 F/Normal
4/4: 25 F/Normal
4/5: 33 F/+7 degrees above normal
4/6: 39 F/+13 degrees above normal
Average temperature for the week of March 31: 35.0 degrees; +1.4 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.10 inches
Normal: 0.44 inches
Departure: -0.34 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of March 31
Temperature: 34.9 degrees
Departure: -2.8 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.30 inches
Departure: -0.18 inches below normal
24-Hour Rainfall Totals for April 6-7, 2019
Note: Totals listed below are through 4 PM, April 7.
Ashland, WI: 0.77″
Effie, MN: 0.73″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.67″
Crane Lake, MN: 0.64″
Barnes, WI: 0.57″
Pine River, MN: 0.50″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.48″
Minong, WI: 0.46″
Orr, MN: 0.45″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.37″
Brainerd, MN: 0.35″
Littlefork, MN: 0.35″
Hayward, WI: 0.32″
Walker, MN: 0.31″
International Falls, MN: 0.30″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.30″
Moose Lake, MN: 0.29″
Grand Portage, MN: 0.28″
Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.25″
Saginaw, MN: 0.22″
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 0.21″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.19″
Siren, WI: 0.16″
Superior, WI (Airport) 0.15″
Cook, MN: 0.11″
Hinckley, MN: 0.10″
Ely, MN: 0.09″
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A trough of low pressure moving through the region today kept skies generally cloudy, although there have been some breaks in the clouds mainly in parts of northwest Wisconsin. A humid southerly flow continued to produce drizzle and fog today with dense fog impacting areas near Lake Superior where visibilities have been down to near zero at times through the day. Mild temps were found in northwest Wisconsin where highs climbed into the 50s to around 60 degrees this afternoon. Temperatures in northeast Minnesota were mainly in the 40s with cooler 30s near Lake Superior.
Lift associated with the trough has produced more areas of rain in parts of the area today with rain coming to an end late this afternoon over far western areas. A few thunderstorms also occurred earlier in the day in parts of northwest Wisconsin and over western Lake Superior.
Tonight: Rain tapers off from west to east as one system exits to the east. Could see some clearing spread into the area tonight along with some patchy fog due to the recent rainfall. Lows will mainly be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with winds shifting to the west-southwest.
Monday: A cold front drops south through the Northland. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies are expected with some rain showers. Note: Temperatures on Monday will be dependent on cloud cover and where the rain sets up. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s, possibly into the lower 60s in far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin, but near 60 degree temps could be seen in parts of east-central Minnesota, possibly even in Duluth. Winds will shift out of the northwest by Monday night and become gusty as cold air advection moves in.
Tuesday: A few flurries are possible early in the day, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies. Breezy and cool with highs in the 30s to lower 40s with north-northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Light rain and drizzle ending early. Areas of fog. Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible late. Low 33 to 38. Wind east around 10 mph becoming west.
.Monday… Occasional showers. Mostly cloudy (few peeks of sun) High 49 to 54. Wind variable around 10 mph becoming west later in the day.
.Tuesday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for April 8
Sunrise for April 8: 6:35 AM CDT
Sunset for April 8: 7:47 PM CDT