12z European ensemble model (EPS) 4-8-19
12z European model (ECMWF) 4-8-19
Late week winter storm which may affect parts of the Northland will move onshore in the Pacific northwest Tuesday morning, then will dig into the central Rockies, before moving out into the central Plains on Wednesday.
Winter Storm Watch has already been issued for parts of western, south-central and east-central Minnesota into far western Wisconsin (blue area on map) Note: We could see this winter storm watch expand to the north/east during the next 24 hours.
Powerful winter storm possible mid to late week
Updated 5 PM Monday, April 8, 2019
•A strong area of low pressure moves into the western High Plains late Tuesday and out into the central Plains Wednesday. This low is then forecast to move northeast following one of the two black lines on the map below, or between the black lines.
•The farther north the low tracks the greater the potential is for heavy snowfall in portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this week.
•There remains some disagreement with the storm track with the Euro and the Euro ensemble model farther north while the GFS and GEFS models favor a farther south storm track. Speaking of the GEFS model, its 12z run from Monday showed 65% of its 20 member ensemble showing less than 6 inches of snow in Duluth, while only 35% showed snowfall of 6 inches or greater, so that does raise some concern in that we could see other models begin to shift the track of the storm a little farther south should the GEFS model be on to something. On the other hand, the Euro ensemble model has held fairly steady for a few days now in bringing the band of heavy snow into portions of the Northland later this week.
•I have made some changes to my forecast as we are now getting closer to this event — I’ve bumped up snow totals to 6 inches, and areas that have the greatest chance and lesser chance to receive at least a half foot of snow.
•I have much of east-central Minnesota, including Duluth, and all of northwest Wisconsin in the greatest chance of 6″+ snowfall with a lesser chance farther north including most of the North Shore. The greatest/lesser chance areas may need to be adjusted in future updates.
Timing: A slower onset to the snow is becoming more likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin which is typical with this type of setup. The greatest impacts from snow and blowing snow looks to be from Thursday into Friday, with the heaviest snowfall possible from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, spreading from south to north across the area.
Wind: East winds will increase Wednesday with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph near Lake Superior. Even stronger winds arrive Wednesday night continuing through Thursday night with wind gusts of 40 to around 55 mph possible near Lake Superior with isolated gusts to 60 mph possible Thursday. Note: Sporadic power outages and some downed tree limbs and power lines are possible especially near Lake Superior due to the strong winds on Thursday.
Considerable blowing and drifting snow with near whiteout conditions will be possible in parts of the Northland Thursday into Friday morning.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, April 8, 2019.
A real mixed bag of weather conditions in the Northland today with some rain across northern Minnesota while a few showers along with some sunshine occurred farther south. Then, late this afternoon we’ve seen the development of a few thunderstorms in parts of the area with movement of those storms off to the southeast.
Breezy northwest winds and cooler air arrives later tonight, and Tuesday will be cooler compared to what some of us saw on Monday.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early. Becoming breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few flurries possible overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind becoming northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Tuesday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible early. High 36 to 41. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 30 to 35. Wind east 15 to 30 mph.
Normal temperatures for April 9
Sunrise for April 9: 6:33 AM CDT
Sunset for April 9: 7:49 PM CDT