Forecast map valid for Thursday evening. Note: The white line on the map represents the approximate location of the rain-snow line at 7 PM Thursday.
A winter storm watch goes into effect late Wednesday night/Thursday morning and runs through Friday morning (blue area on map)
For Duluth — Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Wednesday night through Friday morning.
Storm Watch info: Waves of 14 to 18 feet are possible over western Lake Superior from early Thursday morning through Friday morning. The large waves could lead to some lakeshore flooding near Lake Superior, also potential for some ice shoves as well with some ice still lingering over parts of the lake.
Here’s a larger view of the winter weather headlines that are in effect across the Plains and upper Midwest.
Red – Blizzard Warning
Pink – Winter Storm Warning
Blue – Winter Storm Watch
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday, April 9, 2019.
The storm which will be impacting the Northland later this week is currently making its way through the western U.S.; and boy it looks impressive, although a little on the messy side.
Winter Storm on the way
Updated 3:43 PM Tuesday, April 9, 2019
•Computer models have shifted the storm track farther north. Low pressure is forecast to move into western Kansas Wednesday morning, then toward the Iowa-Minnesota border by Friday morning. With a farther north storm track, the potential for heavy snow is increasing across most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but with the storm track shifting north, this could pull in enough warm air to produce a mixture of snow and sleet on Thursday, mainly over eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin, this could lead to slightly lower snowfall amounts in those areas.
•Snow should begin in southern portions of the area early Thursday morning, the snow will then lift slowly north across the rest of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the day Thursday. Note: Snow could arrive in Duluth as early as 5-7 AM Thursday, but there are some timing differences in the models, some show a slower start time, closer to Noon Thursday. Typically with these storms, a slower start time is the way to go, but sometimes it doesn’t work that way so will see we happens with this storm.
•The heaviest snow is expected to fall Thursday afternoon/evening, but snow could linger through most of the day Friday, although not nearly as heavy as what falls Thursday afternoon/evening.
•Wind will be a major issue with this storm with the strongest winds expected near Lake Superior with east to northeast winds gusting between 35 and 55 mph from Wednesday night through Friday morning, the strongest winds will occur Thursday into Thursday evening. Note: Isolated gusts to 60 mph are possible near Lake Superior Thursday.
•Sporadic power outages are possible Thursday into early Friday near Lake Superior and in other portions of the Northland due to the heavy snow and strong winds. Downed tree limbs and power lines are possible near Lake Superior.
Here’s my snowfall potential map for the late week winter storm. Adjustments to the totals and snowfall gradients are possible.
Things that could result in lower snowfall totals would be if the dry slot pushes farther north, this would lead to snowfall becoming much lighter, and also the threat for mixed precipitation on Thursday.
At the moment, the threat for mixed precip and possibly getting dry slotted is greatest in far southern/southeast portions of the Northland, but this could end up shifting a little farther west/north in future model runs.
This is where the mixed precipitation and dry slot potential is greatest for Thursday afternoon-Thursday night (pink outlined area on map) Again we could see this shift a little more west/north in future model runs. The mixed precip and dry slot could lead to lower snowfall amounts than what is shown on the map above.
18z NAM-WRF model 4-9-19
Northeast winds will increase near Lake Superior beginning later tonight with wind gusts 10 to 20 mph.
Northeast winds will increase further on Wednesday with wind gusts of 20 to around 35 mph.
Even stronger winds arrive on Thursday with potential for northeast winds gusting 40 to around 60 mph.
18z NAM-WRF model 4-9-19
Simulated radar forecast from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 AM Friday.
There is a chance for a little light lake effect snow or flurries Wednesday near Lake Superior with northeast winds and cold enough air at 850mb, any snow that falls shouldn’t amount to anything, however.
Snow will then gradually lift north into the area from south to north on Thursday, arriving first in far southern areas, and probably not until Thursday afternoon farther north. Note: There is a slight chance for some thunder Thursday or Thursday evening, especially over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as mid level lapse rates steepen while some elevated CAPE lifts N/NE out of southern Minnesota.
Rainfall reports from April 8, 2019
0.1 NE Hovland, MN: 0.51″
2 E Celina, MN: 0.35″
Babbitt, MN: 0.33″
Embarrass, MN: 0.32″
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 0.25″
Cook, MN: 0.16″
2.2 S Barnes, WI: 0.15″
3 E Orr, MN: 0.14″
25 E Ely, MN: 0.11″
4 E Island Lake, MN: 0.11″
Duluth, MN: 0.08″
Hurley, WI: 0.08″
Forecast for Duluth
Alerts *Winter Storm Watch*
Timing: Late Wednesday night through Friday morning
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few flurries possible late. Low 25 to 30. Wind becoming northeast 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Windy. A few flurries possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast 15 to 30 mph.
.Wednesday night… Windy. Mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 28. Wind east to northeast 20 to 40 mph.
.Thursday… Windy. Snow developing before Noon. Blowing snow. Patchy sleet possible. High 28 to 31. Wind east to northeast 25 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 60 mph.
.Thursday night… Windy. Snow and blowing snow. Patchy sleet possible. Low 28 to 31. Wind east to northeast 25 to 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph.
.Friday… Breezy. Lingering snow. Total snowfall storm accumulations of 8 to 12 inches possible. High 33 to 38. Wind becoming north to northwest 15 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for April 10
Sunrise for April 10: 6:31 AM CDT
Sunset for April 10: 7:50 PM CDT