Wildfire smoke; few showers/t-storms possible tonight-Friday (Strong lake wind develops Friday afternoon-evening) Nice weekend ahead; patchy frost possible Sunday morning

/Issued 4:48 PM CDT, Thursday, May 30, 2019/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF model 5-30-19

A few showers are possible early Friday morning in far northeast Minnesota followed by a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into early Friday evening mostly over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

An area of low pressure along with a cold front will move southeast through the region Friday while a lake breeze front moves west/south off Lake Superior.  Increasing amounts of moisture and instability are forecast to develop Friday south of Duluth, from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with stronger winds aloft in place as well, these ingredients could help to produce a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a low risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Note:  Can’t rule out a stray shower in Duluth on Friday but the better chance for some showers look to be west and south of the Twin Ports.

•A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon/early evening in far southern portions of the Northland, roughly along and south of a line from Sandstone to Glidden. 

•Hazards in the marginal and slight risk areas include hail to quarter size, damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, lightning and heavy downpours.

•A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday covering a large portion of central and southern Minnesota into most of Wisconsin with a little better chance of severe weather (slight risk) in parts of central/eastern Wisconsin from around Ladysmith and Rhinelander to Wausau, Green Bay and Sheboygan.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Analysis from late Thursday afternoon.  Lake Superior showing her power once again today.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF model 5-30-19

Highs on Friday are forecast to range from around 70 degrees to as warm as the middle 80s but much cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s will be found near Lake Superior.  Warmest temps on Friday should be over east-central Minnesota and inland areas of northwest Wisconsin.

A strong lake breeze is forecast to develop sometime Friday afternoon and this boundary will move quickly to the west/south later Friday afternoon, eventually reaching as far south as Moose Lake and Hayward, west to McGregor, a good 20 degree temperature drop is possible in those aforementioned locations later Friday afternoon.  Note:  Northeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph near Lake Superior Friday afternoon/evening.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

12z European computer model 5-30-19

850mb temperature forecast for Friday, May 31, 2019.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite image from Thursday afternoon, May 30, 2019.

Widespread smoke covered northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today due to wildfires that are burning in western Canada.  Northwest winds aloft are bringing these plumes of smoke southeast into the Northern Plains and even parts of the Central Plains into the upper Midwest.

Temperatures were the other big weather story today with a stronger lake breeze today keeping temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s this afternoon near Lake Superior while very warm conditions were found farther inland with highs ranging from lower 70s to middle 80s in north-central and east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

There’s a lot going on in the satellite loop below.

Goes-16 imagery from Thursday, May 30, 2019.

1:  Low pressure spinning E-SE across parts of Iowa and Missouri today.

2:  Low pressure over Quebec province.

3:  Low pressure heading southeast across northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba province.

4:  Wildfires over northern Alberta province with several smoke plumes moving south/east through western/central Canada, into the Northern/Central Plains and upper Midwest.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, May 31.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Friday, May 31.

2019 ALS Fishing Tournament takes place at Island Lake, Minnesota on Saturday, June 1.

Weather looks nice for this event on Saturday with winds out of the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph with a mix of sun and clouds.  Temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees at 7 AM Saturday, warming to the middle to upper 60s Saturday afternoon.

More info about this event at this link http://webmn.alsa.org/site/TR?fr_id=13632&pg=entry

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Smoke.  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Some smoke and haze.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.  Turning breezy and cooler.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind becoming east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible during the afternoon.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 64 to 69.  Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 31

High:   67
Low:    45

May 31 Sunrise:  5:19 AM CDT
May 31 Sunset:   8:54 PM CDT

Isolated showers/t-storms Thu-Fri (lake wind returns Thursday) A huge temperature contrast expected Friday as a potent lake breeze boundary moves quickly down Lake Superior with falling temps and 20-30 mph NE winds!

/Issued 4:50 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 29, 2019/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z HRRR model 5-29-19

A few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm on the way for Thursday as a cold front drops south across the Northland.  This front won’t get too far south before it heads E-NE as a warm front Friday morning, then will see a stronger cold front surge south through the Northland Friday with another round of scattered showers or thunderstorms possible near that boundary Friday afternoon-evening targeting mainly southern portions of the Northland the way it looks now.  Note:  Severe weather is not expected Thursday or Friday, but brief downpours and occasional lightning will be possible with a few storms.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF model 5-29-19

Friday’s lake breeze front could be a potent one, possibly even stronger than the one that hit last Sunday afternoon.  Watch how quickly the temperatures drop Friday afternoon-evening on the loop below as the lake breeze front surges well inland off Lake Superior sometime Friday afternoon or evening.

Note:  There are some timing differences seen in model guidance as to when this lake breeze front will move through Duluth on Friday with the Euro guidance showing an earlier frontal passage while the GFS shows a later frontal passage (Friday evening) while the NAM guidance shows it moving through Duluth Friday afternoon somewhere in the 1-3 PM time frame.  An earlier frontal passage is probably the way to go with this type of setup, but if this front holds off til later Friday afternoon, then there is a chance that temperatures could soar into the middle 80s in Duluth for a few hours on Friday, but once that lake breeze front blasts through, temps will fall quickly into the 40s and 50s while northeast winds increase to 20 to 30 mph!

Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com

File this under something you don’t see everyday.  Warmest temperatures across Minnesota on this 29th day of May were found in Duluth and surrounding areas of northeast and east-central Minnesota while the coolest temperatures covered southern Minnesota, but especially southwestern Minnesota.  Upside down weather pattern.

…Breaking…  Duluth, Minnesota hit 82 degrees today (first 80 this year) The average date for first 80 degree high temperature in Duluth is May 23 (1875-2018 climate period)  The last time Duluth had a high of at least 80 degrees occurred last September on the 16th.

Note:  Today’s (May 29) high of 82 degrees in Duluth is the warmest temperature since August 27, 2018, high was also 82 degrees.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, May 30.

A relatively mild night ahead with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast with areas of haze and smoke possible due to the wildfires over western Canada which are sending plumes of smoke into the Northern Plains into portions of the upper Midwest.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Thursday, May 30.

Warm temperatures continue Thursday with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s, but it will be much cooler near Lake Superior with highs ranging from the mid 40s to around 60 degrees with east winds gusting to around 20 mph.  Note:  Areas of haze and smoke could linger in parts of the Northland Thursday.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

The pattern over the last few weeks has been very active with severe weather and tornadoes occurring on a daily basis from the Southern and Central Plains to Ohio Valley into parts of the northeast U.S. 

The map below is the infrared satellite image from Tuesday evening, May 28, 2019, with the basic pattern overlaid.

•973 tornado warnings issued so far this month, that’s the most in any month since April 2011.  Most tornado warnings during the month of May since 2008.  Source:  Twitter; @KathrynProciv

•549 tornado reports so far in the last 30 days (April 28, 2019 to May 28, 2019)  Source:  Twitter; @splillo

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Some haze and smoke.  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind west 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Some haze and smoke.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.  Cooler.  High 69 to 74 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind west 5 to 15 mph, becoming east 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.  High 65 to 70 with falling temperatures.  Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph, becoming northeast 15 to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 30

High:   66
Low:    44

May 30 Sunrise:  5:20 AM CDT
May 30 Sunset:   8:53 PM CDT

Some smoke and haze on the way; warm Wednesday (70s!) Cooler lake wind develops Thursday; watching Friday storm chances

/Issued 4:49 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 28, 2019/

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Portions of the Northland could be treated to a colorful sunset this evening thanks to a plume of wildfire smoke which is pushing south out of northern Minnesota late this Tuesday afternoon, this smoke is coming out of western Canada and is pushing to the east/southeast due to the upper level winds which are out of the northwest today, some smoke/haze could linger across the area into Wednesday.

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

May has been a very active month for tornadoes and severe weather.

Through May 27:  442 tornado reports
The May average is 276

The only dates so far this month with no tornado reports were May 10, 14 and 15.

Note:  Minnesota has had 5 tornado reports so far this month, 2 of them occurred this past Friday evening (May 24) in northwest Minnesota, 3 more tornadoes on Memorial Day (May 27) in far southern Minnesota.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, May 29.

Not as cold Wednesday morning compared to Tuesday morning when several locations in northern Minnesota had temperatures near the freezing mark, a few locations even dipped into the upper 20s! The cold spot Tuesday morning (May 28) was 27 degrees at Crane Lake, Minnesota.

Lows Wednesday morning will mainly be in the 40s but a few 30s can’t be ruled out in low lying areas, away from Lake Superior.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, May 29.

A very nice late spring day ahead on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Keeping an eye on Friday for the potential of some showers and thunderstorms across the Northland.  Timing of the surface fronts and how much moisture and instability can develop ahead of this system will determine where convection develops and how widespread it will be Friday and or Friday night.  At the moment it doesn’t look like there will be any severe weather, but a few of the storms could be on the strong side especially late Friday afternoon or Friday evening.  Stay tuned.

•Here’s a look at when the first 80 degree high temperature has occurred at Duluth, Minnesota from 2000-2018.

•Earliest first 80 since 2000 occurred on April 14 (2003)
•Latest first 80 since 2000 occurred on June 29 (2004)

Note:  The average date for first 80 degree high is May 23 (1875-2018 climate period)

2000:  May 5
2001:  April 29
2002:  May 30
2003:  April 14
2004:  June 29
2005:  June 19
2006:  June 7
2007:  May 9
2008:  June 20
2009:  May 20
2010:  May 25
2011:  June 6
2012:  May 14
2013:  May 15
2014:  May 24
2015:  May 27
2016:  May 6
2017:  June 3
2018:  May 7
2019:  ???

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.  wind variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  Warmest temp so far this year?  High 73 to 78.  Wind west 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  Warmest temperature so far this year is 75 degrees on May 14.

.Thursday…  Turning cooler (lake wind develops) Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.  High 68 to 73 with falling temperatures.  Wind becoming east 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 29

High:   66
Low:    44

May 29 Sunrise:  5:20 AM CDT
May 29 Sunset:   8:52 PM CDT

Frost Advisory issued for parts of northeast Minnesota early Tue AM; warmer temps mid-late week; risk of showers/t-storms Friday, few storms could be strong!

/Issued 5:03 PM CDT, Monday, May 27, 2019/

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM model 5-27-19

Some of that warmth that is building across western Canada the next few days will be spilling southeast into the Northland mid to late week with highs Wednesday, Thursday and Friday forecast to be in the 70s in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, there is a chance that a few locations could even hit 80 degrees late this week.  Note:  A lake breeze is possible at times from mid to late week, and if one occurs, then temps will be much cooler around Lake Superior.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Northern Minnesota got some rain last night into this morning while another area of rain impacted most of northwest Wisconsin on this Memorial Day 2019.

…Chilly temperatures with areas of frost late tonight-early Tuesday morning north of Duluth…

•Frost Advisory for the following counties — Koochiching MN, Northern Itasca MN, Central and Northern St. Louis MN, Lake MN and Cook MN.

•Some cities included in the advisory — International Falls, Bigfork, Hibbing, Cook, Ely, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.

•Temperatures as low as 32 to 34 degrees.

•Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Goes-16 meso sector infrared satellite loop from Monday, May 27, 2019.

It’s been a stormy day in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana into southern areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin as severe thunderstorms developed near and north of a warm front today.  Through 5 PM Monday, about a dozen tornado reports in Iowa, Illinois and far southeastern Minnesota via Storm Prediction Center storm reports map.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday, May 27, 2019.

An active weather pattern is still in place but the storm track has shifted farther south early this week which means that most of the rain Tuesday and Wednesday will remain south of the Northland.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, May 28.

A chilly night ahead in northern Minnesota as lows fall into the 30s.  Milder temps in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota with lows tonight in the low to mid 40s.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, May 28.

Milder temperatures return to most areas Tuesday with highs right around average for late May in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.  A lake breeze will linger into Tuesday however, and this will keep it cooler near Lake Superior, but the lake wind shouldn’t be as strong as what we had on Monday, so temps near Lake Superior should be able to get into the 50s on Tuesday which is still cool for this time of year but not as cold as what occurred on Monday.

No rain is forecast on Tuesday while sky conditions vary between partly sunny and mostly cloudy across the area.

Rainfall Reports for May 26-27, 2019
Source:  https://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period, ending at 5 PM on May 27.

Siren, WI:  0.72 inch
Hayward, WI:  0.71 inch
Glidden, WI:  0.50 inch
Minong, WI:  0.40 inch
Clam Lake, WI:  0.38 inch
Crane Lake, MN:  0.34 inch
Ashland, WI:  0.29 inch
Grand Marais, MN:  0.28 inch
Barnes, WI:  0.27 inch
Ely, MN:  0.27 inch
Bigfork, MN:  0.27 inch
Isabella, MN:  0.25 inch
Orr, MN:  0.23 inch
Solon Springs, WI:  0.22 inch
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport:  0.19 inch
Hinckley, MN:  0.18 inch
Washburn, WI:  0.12 inch
Cass Lake, MN:  0.11 inch
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.07 inch
Hill City, MN:  0.06 inch
Walker, MN:  0.05 inch

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle possible.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind east 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday…  Not as windy.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy.  High 62 to 67 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 28

High:   66
Low:    44

May 28 Sunrise:  5:21 AM CDT
May 28 Sunset:   8:51 PM CDT

Gusty northeast winds and cool with some rain possible in parts of the Northland tonight through Memorial Day

/Issued 5:52 PM CDT, Sunday, May 26, 2019/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European computer model 5-26-19

•Looking at two areas of rain through Tuesday morning, the computer models agree on that, but they don’t agree on how far north the southern area of rain will reach. 

•The European model is the farthest south, while the NAM guidance is farther north bringing rain to Duluth by Monday afternoon.  The RGEM, RAP and HRRR models side with the NAM, while the German-Icon and GFS models agree with the Euro keeping the rain south and north of Duluth tonight and Monday.  I’m leaning toward the Euro guidance with my forecast with only a few showers or patchy drizzle possible at times in Duluth through Monday, but if the other models are correct, a steadier rain would affect Duluth on Monday.

•One area of rain will affect parts of northern Minnesota tonight into Monday morning with rainfall totals in the 0.10 to 0.30 inch range.

•The second area of rain (heavier amounts) affects much of southern Minnesota and central/southern Wisconsin through Tuesday morning with rain totals in those areas of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts.

•Not much rain is expected between the northern and southern areas of rain through Tuesday morning.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

21z HRRR model, radar forecast from 7 PM Sunday evening to 7 AM Monday.

Scattered showers tonight mainly over northern Minnesota while a larger area of rain lifts northeast into the southern half of Minnesota overnight/early Monday morning.

There was quite a difference in weather conditions across the Northland today.  Temperatures this Sunday afternoon were only in the mid 40s to low 50s in far northern Minnesota where overcast skies along with some light rain and drizzle were found, while southern portions of the Northland saw more sun and warmer temps, ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s today.

Note:  High of 50 degrees at International Falls today is the 3rd coldest high on record for May 26.  The record cold high is 45 degrees set on May 26, 1970.

One of the cooler things radar can pick up are these ‘backdoor’ cold fronts, in this case the one that surged southwest down Lake Superior today.

At 3:20 PM cold front was located from near Castle Danger to Cornucopia.

Around 4:20 PM cold front was located from near French River to southwest of Port Wing.

4:50 PM, backdoor cold front passes through Duluth and Superior.

Note:  East winds gusting 20 to 35 mph with a good 20 degree temperature drop occurred as this cold front moved through late this Sunday afternoon.

5:50 PM, cold front continuing to surge west/southwest and extended from just east of Shaw to Cloquet to Holyoke and Chaffey.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, May 27.

Lows tonight ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s.  Strong northeast winds near Lake Superior with gusts 20 to 30 mph. 

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Memorial Day (Monday) May 27.

A cool Memorial Day ahead with highs ranging from around 40 degrees near Lake Superior to the mid 40s to mid 50s over the rest of the Northland.

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of May 19, 2019.  Below average temps in the Northland last week.

Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of May 19, 2019.  Precipitation totals were above average last week in most of the Northland (green and blue colors on map)  Yellow shaded areas represent near to below average precip totals.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

May 19-25, 2019

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

5/19:  42 F/-21 degrees below normal
5/20:  65 F/+1 degree above normal
5/21:  64 F/Normal
5/22:  49 F/-15 degrees below normal
5/23:  57 F/-7 degrees below normal
5/24:  50 F/-15 degrees below normal
5/25:  68 F/+3 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

5/19:  35 F/-7 degrees below normal
5/20:  36 F/-6 degrees below normal
5/21:  38 F/-4 degrees below normal
5/22:  43 F/+1 degree above normal
5/23:  44 F/+1 degree above normal
5/24:  44 F/+1 degree above normal
5/25:  44 F/+1 degree above normal

Average temperature for the week of May 19:  48.5 degrees (-4.7 degrees below normal) Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total precipitation:  1.64 inches
Normal:  0.74 inches
Departure:  +0.90 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of May 19
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  50.8 degrees
Departure:  -7.3 degrees below normal

Precipitation:  1.85 inches
Departure:  +1.08 inches above normal

Note:  Spring 2019 is running ~1.0 degree colder compared to last spring in Minnesota through May 25 while the state has seen 3″+ more precipitation this spring compared to last spring through May 25.  See stats below.

Meteorological spring Climate Stats for Minnesota (thru May 25)

Note:  Meteorological spring is the period from March 1 to May 31.

Spring 2019

Average temperature (thru May 25)  37.7 degrees
Departure:  -4.0 degrees below normal

Total precipitation (thru May 25)  9.36 inches
Departure:  +2.40 inches above normal

Spring 2018 

Average temperature (thru May 25)  38.8 degrees
Departure:  -2.9 degrees below normal

Total precipitation (thru May 25)  6.07 inches
Departure:  -0.75 inches below normal

Weather Tidbits

-A very stormy stretch in the U.S.; Over the past 10 days (May 16 to May 25) 1845 total severe reports with 231 reported tornadoes.  Source:  Twitter; @MJVentrice

-Duluth, Minnesota hit 70 degrees today, May 26, this is the third time so far this month with a high of at least 70 degrees.  Average number of 70 degree days in May is 6 days.  Last May had 17 days with a high temp of 70 degrees or warmer.

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Windy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible late.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind east 15 to 30 mph.

.Monday…  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle, few showers possible.  High 43 to 48.  Wind east 15 to 30 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 27

High:   65
Low:    44

May 27 Sunrise:  5:22 AM CDT
May 27 Sunset:   8:50 PM CDT