Latest on Sunday’s rain and possible snow
•Greatest chance for snow accumulation of a dusting to 2 inches in a small area of east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Majority of the snow accumulation (if any occurs) would be on grassy and elevated surfaces)
•Areas farther north including Duluth and the North Shore is in an area of uncertainty meaning there is still a chance for accumulating snow Sunday but confidence is lower in this area compared to areas a little farther south.
•Boundary layer temperatures Sunday are forecast to range from around 34 to 37 degrees which is marginal for snow, but temperatures aloft will be colder, ranging from around -1 to -2C at 925mb and 850mb.
•The area that has the best chance to see the rain mix with snow and possibly a few hours of all snow Sunday will be where the strongest lift in the atmosphere/heaviest precipitation rates setup as this area will have the greatest dynamic cooling allowing the rain to mix with snow. Where this area sets up is still a little uncertain as of late Saturday afternoon as model guidance has been shifting a bit to the north and south throughout the day.
Note: The strongest winds out of the northeast will occur Sunday morning in the Twin Ports and North Shore, winds will shift to the north-northeast by Sunday afternoon. Strong winds out of the northeast/north will occur along the South Shore through the day Sunday.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
18z NAM-WRF model 5-18-19
There could be a few spotty showers or patchy drizzle in spots this evening.
Steadier rain lifts N-NE into east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Sunday morning, and this rain should continue through the day before ending late Sunday afternoon/Sunday evening. Additional precipitation totals on Sunday are forecast to range from around 0.50 to 1.50 inches in east-central Minnesota, North Shore and northwest Wisconsin.
Blue colors on map indicate where the rain could mix with or change to snow on Sunday.
Northern Minnesota will stay mostly dry on Sunday.
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Slight risk of excessive rainfall (flash flooding) Sunday in all of northwest Wisconsin (yellow outlined area on map)
Marginal risk of excessive rainfall (flash flooding) Sunday in east-central and northeast Minnesota (green outlined area on map)
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Strong mid/upper level trough will move through the upper Midwest on Sunday while a strong area of low pressure over the Southern Plains early this Saturday evening lifts rapidly to the northeast through Sunday (red line on map) This system will bring rain and some snow to parts of the Northland on Sunday.
Heaviest rain last night and this morning was from east-central Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin while far northern Minnesota including the International Falls area stayed dry!
Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, May 19.
Cool night ahead with lows mainly in the 30s.
Source: https://graphical.weather.gov
High temperature forecast for Sunday, May 19.
Unseasonably cool weather continues Sunday with highs only ranging from the upper 30s to lower 50s, ‘warmest’ temps around the International Falls area.
Rainfall Reports from Friday night-Saturday, May 17-18, 2019
Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu
Note: Totals listed below are through 5 PM, May 18.
Minong, WI: 1.28 inch
Hayward, WI: 1.19 inch
Siren, WI: 1.09 inch
Hinckley, MN: 1.05 inch
Washburn, WI: 1.00 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 0.96 inch
Clam Lake, WI: 0.96 inch
Barnes, WI: 0.94 inch
Solon Springs, WI: 0.90 inch
Ashland, WI: 0.83 inch
Brainerd, MN: 0.68 inch
Superior, WI (Airport) 0.58 inch
McGregor, MN: 0.58 inch
Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.53 inch
Saginaw, MN: 0.51 inch
Pine River, MN: 0.50 inch
Cass Lake, MN: 0.47 inch
Two Harbors, MN: 0.46 inch
Hill City, MN: 0.45 inch
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.42 inch
Walker, MN: 0.41 inch
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.21 inch
Isabella, MN: 0.08 inch
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
-High temperature of 45 degrees in Duluth today, May 18 is only +4 degrees above what the normal low is for May 18 (41 degrees) So yes the high today was well below normal, -18 degrees below normal for May 18.
-If we get at least 0.1 inch of snow in Duluth on Sunday (May 19) it would be the first time since 1971 (48 years ago) where we had at least 0.1 inch of snow on the 19th of May.
-The record snowfall in Duluth for May 19 is 0.6 inches which was set in 1971; second snowiest is 0.2 inches set in 1963.
Forecast for Duluth
.Tonight… Windy. Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle or a few showers possible. Low 34 to 38. Wind east to northeast 15 to 30 mph.
.Sunday… Windy. Rain or a rain-snow mix. Precipitation could change to all snow at times especially in higher terrain areas inland from Lake Superior. High 38 to 42. Wind northeast 20 to 35 mph, becoming north to northeast 15 to 30 mph during the afternoon.
.Monday… ‘Milder’ but still below normal. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 57 to 62. wind north 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for May 19
High: 63
Low: 42
May 19 Sunrise: 5:30 AM CDT
May 19 Sunset: 8:42 PM CDT
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