Rain ends this evening; warm and mainly dry Friday-Saturday; t-storms possible Sunday

/Issued 5:20 PM CDT, Thursday, June 27, 2019/

Northland forecast valid June 28 through June 30, 2019

•Warm temperatures and somewhat muggy weather the next few days with the most humid day occurring on Sunday the way it looks now.

•Dew points Friday and Saturday ranging from around 50 degrees to the middle 60s, highest dew points generally along and south of the Highway 2 corridor.

•Dew points on Sunday could climb to between 65 and 75 degrees across the entire Northland, perhaps a little lower near Lake Superior if temperatures are cooler.

•Highs on Friday, Saturday and Sunday mainly in the 80s.

•Temperatures may be cooler near Lake Superior if or when a lake breeze develops.  The way it looks now is that will have an east wind Friday, although not very strong so temps may only be a little cooler than locations farther away from the lake.  Winds Saturday may be more out of the south/southeast most of the day before possibly turning more out of the northeast later in the day, so Saturday may end up being quite warm even near Lake Superior until the wind turns more to the northeast later in the afternoon or evening.

•After the rain moves out this evening we’re looking at mainly dry conditions from late tonight through the day Saturday as an upper level ridge builds north into the upper Midwest, this will help keep any thunderstorm clusters from impacting the Northland as they pass west and south and away from our area through Saturday.

•The risk for showers and thunderstorms increases from late Saturday night through Sunday evening thanks to a warm front which builds northeast while a cold front approaches from the west.  Note:  There is some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late this weekend as there should be enough instability and moisture in place to develop convection, whether or not there is a lot of severe weather will depend on the timing of the frontal boundaries, the strength of the low level jet and winds aloft and how much wind shear is available, but the general pattern supports a strong to severe thunderstorm risk on Sunday.  Stay tuned.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

•High temperature of 86 degrees on June 26 was the first 80 degree or warmer temperature since June 8.

•4 days at or above 80 degrees so far this month, average number of days in June with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees is 5.  Note:  Last June had 7 days with a high temp of at least 80 degrees.

Rainfall Reports from June 27, 2019
Source:  https://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are through 4 PM Thursday, June 27.

Hill City, MN:  1.05 inch
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.90 inch
Brainerd, MN:  0.73 inch
Saginaw, MN:  0.69 inch
Moose Lake, MN:  0.53 inch
Washburn, WI:  0.47 inch
Ashland, Wisconsin:  0.31 inch
Superior Airport:  0.31 inch
Duluth Airport:  0.24 inch
Clam Lake, WI:  0.18 inch
Eveleth-Virginia, MN:  0.13 inch
Minong, WI:  0.12 inch
Siren, WI:  0.10 inch
Hayward, WI:  0.07 inch
Solon Springs, WI:  0.05 inch
Silver Bay, MN:  0.04 inch

Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com

You can really pick out where the MCS tracked today by the temperatures from late this Thursday afternoon — Warmest temps surround the track of today’s MCS with rain cooled air in the middle.

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European ensemble model 6-27-19

The weather pattern could be an active one at times for the next 2 weeks with potential for thunderstorm clusters to impact parts of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest, similar to what we saw today. 

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European ensemble model 6-27-19

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

18z NAM model 6-27-19

Source:  https://www.pivotalweather.com

The first prolonged stretch of muggy weather is here and it should stick around for several days, welcome to summer!

Green colors on the map below represent dew points in the 50s which is comfortable, but the blue and darker blue colors represent steamy dew points from 65 to around 75 degrees!  Although it will be a tad muggy in the Northland Friday and Saturday (especially south of Highway 2) the most humid conditions will be found farther to the west and south, but on Sunday that real steamy airmass makes a move farther north into all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin the way it looks now.

Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

It’s been a wet and stormy day in some parts of the Northland thanks to a large MCS or Mesoscale Convective System which moved east/northeast through parts of the upper Midwest today, here’s how today’s MCS looked on Goes-16 infrared satellite imagery, impressive!

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, June 28.

Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Friday, June 28.

Forecast for Duluth

.Tonight…  Light rain early.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 75 to 80, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  High 80 to 85, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast later in the day.

Normal temperatures for June 28

High:   74
Low:    53

June 28 Sunrise:  5:17 AM CDT
June 28 Sunset:   9:07 PM CDT

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