Warm and humid weather on the way with isolated showers/t-storms; another record low at Hibbing, Minn this morning (July 31)

August begins on Thursday. The first NFL preseason game on NBC Thursday night, fall is right around the corner!

Here are the averages for August in Duluth

  • Temperature: 64.3 degrees
  • Precipitation: 3.70 inches
  • Normal high on the 1st: 76 F
  • Normal high on the 31st: 71 F
  • Normal low on the 1st: 56 F
  • Normal low on the 31st: 52 F

Records for August

  • Warmest 70.2 degrees set in 1930
  • Coldest 57.5 degrees set in 1912
  • Wettest 10.31 inches set in 1972
  • Driest 0.29 inches set in 1930

Average number of days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees in August is 7 days. Record for most number of 80 degree days was in August 1969 with 21 days recording a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

Astronomical Data

  • Sunrise on the 1st: 5:48 AM CDT
  • Sunrise on the 31st: 6:26 AM CDT
  • Sunset on the 1st: 8:41 PM CDT
  • Sunset on the 31st: 7:49 PM CDT

July 17, 2019 Tornado Outbreak Information

Tornado – Voyageurs National Park

Locator Lake to Marion Bay (Rainy Lake)

St. Louis County, MN

Date: July 17, 2019

Time: 7:49 PM – 8:06 PM CDT

EF Rating: EF-1

Estimated Peak Winds: 100 mph

Path Length: 3.5 miles

Path Width: 600 yards

Injuries/Deaths: None

Tornado(es) – Wirt/Effie

Itasca and Koochiching County, MN

Date: July 17, 2019

Time: 7:00 PM – 8:00 PM CDT

Tornado – Orr/Gheen to Buyck

St. Louis County, MN

Date: July 17, 2019

Time: 8:05 PM – 8:45 PM CDT

Note: Additional information on the July 17, 2019 tornado outbreak can be found at this link https://www.weather.gov/dlh/2019-07-17-Northeast-Minnesota-Tornadoes

***Record Low Temperature at Hibbing, Minnesota today, July 31, 2019***

New record: 39 degrees set on July 31, 2019; previous record was 40 degrees set in 1971. Note: This is the second day in a row with a record low temperature at Hibbing.

It’s been an interesting summer! Hibbing has set a record low temperature 5 times since June 1. Record lows were broken on June 2, June 12, June 13, July 30 and July 31.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible at times on Thursday mainly across northern Minnesota.

18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, August 1.

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Thursday, August 1.

Rainfall totals in the Northland will vary greatly through Friday with some locations getting very little rain, while other locations pick up an inch or so of rain, on average we’re looking at around a tenth to quarter inch of rain with locally higher amounts. With the type of pattern that is setting up, all day rains are not expected, but isolated to scattered downpours will occur in some parts of the area with dry hours in between the showers.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

…Weather Summary…

Turning more humid the next few days as we kick off the month of August.

Dew points will be climbing into the 60s Thursday, and should remain in the 60s through the weekend.

Pattern change is well underway today as winds shift to the south as high pressure moves off to the east.

Upper level winds remain out of the northwest across the area today between an upper level low near Hudson Bay and an upper level ridge over the central and southern Rockies, under that ridge, 850mb temperatures are as warm as +30C this afternoon across the northern Rockies, while to the northeast of that ridge 850mb temperatures are in the +12 to +14C range here in the Northland.

The weather through Saturday will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies, mild and humid conditions with isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Forecast models are showing enough instability for thunderstorm development with CAPE to around 1000 J/kg, but severe weather is not expected due to weak winds aloft, weak 0-6 KM wind shear along with less than ideal mid level lapse rates. Storms that develop should be of the pulse variety and outflow dominant with heavy downpours and occasional lightning being the primary threats with gusty winds also possible when storms collapse.

Lows tonight will be in the 50s, but 40s are possible in the typical cool spots and also in parts of northwest Wisconsin. Highs Thursday will be in the 80s. South winds tonight 5 to 15 mph with southwest winds Thursday at 10 to 20 mph.

Spirit Valley Days kicks off Thursday with the parade in West Duluth from 6 PM to 7:30 PM. Weather looks good for the parade on Thursday with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Winds southwest 10 to 20 mph. Any showers and thunderstorms should remain north of Duluth through Thursday evening.

Mainly clear and cool tonight; sunshine and mild Wednesday; turning more humid Thursday

Record Low Temperatures set in the Northland this morning, Tuesday, July 30, 2019.

International Falls, Minnesota: New record low of 37 degrees set on July 30, 2019. Previous record low 38 degrees set on July 30, 1898 or 121 years ago.

Hibbing, Minnesota: New record low of 37 degrees set on July 30, 2019. Previous record low 41 degrees set on July 30, 1964, and tied in 1971, 1992 and 2004.

Low Temperature Reports from Tuesday morning, July 30, 2019

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • Eveleth, MN: 37 F
  • Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 37 F
  • International Falls, MN: 37 F
  • Crane Lake, MN: 39 F
  • Bigfork, MN: 39 F
  • Embarrass, MN: 40 F
  • Aitkin, MN: 41 F
  • Cass Lake, MN: 43 F
  • Northome, MN: 43 F
  • Hill City, MN: 43 F
  • Silver Bay, MN: 43 F
  • Ely, MN: 43 F
  • McGregor, MN: 43 F
    Walker, MN: 43 F
  • Hermantown, MN: 45 F
  • Moose Lake, MN: 45 F

Record lows for July 31 — See list below

  • Ashland, WI: 36 F set in 1924
  • International Falls, MN: 39 F set in 1898 and tied in 1906
  • Hibbing, MN: 40 F set in 1971
  • Duluth, MN: 42 F set in 1924
  • Brainerd, MN: 44 F set in 1974 and tied in 1992

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, July 31.

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, July 31.

500mb forecast valid for Wednesday, July 31, 2019 per 18z NAM model.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com

…Weather Summary…

An area of high pressure was over the upper Midwest late this afternoon with a northwest flow aloft in place.

Another pleasantly cool night is on the way under mainly clear skies. Patchy fog is possible early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will range from around 40 to the middle 50s (mildest temps near Lake Superior) Light winds through the night.

Mild temperatures Wednesday with another day with low humidity. Mostly sunny skies with highs in the middle 70s to around 80. High pressure moves off to the east causing winds to shift to the south on Wednesday with those southerly winds in the 10 to 15 mph range.

Turning more humid Thursday and a muggier airmass could linger through the weekend. Dew points are forecast to climb into the 60s Thursday and could remain in the 60s right through the weekend. Also looks warm Thursday through Sunday with daytime highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Instability will be on the increase late this week and this combined with a frontal boundary over or near the Northland should be enough to trigger isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday. Note: The chance for severe weather looks pretty low due to weaker winds aloft and very little wind shear, instead we’re probably looking at outflow dominant (pulse) type storms with heavy downpours, some lightning and possibly some gusty winds. Not expecting all day rains with this kind of setup, but if a storm hits your location, then a heavy downpour will likely occur.

Patchy fog late tonight otherwise very nice weather through midweek; warmer/more humid late this week. July 28, 2019 rainfall reports

A rather large swath with half inch to 2 inch plus rainfall totals since last Friday, July 26, the bulk of this rain fell Friday afternoon/evening, and again on Sunday.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Rainfall reports from Sunday, July 28, 2019

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • Duluth Airport: 1.53 inch
  • Wolfridge ELC: 1.36 inch
  • Morgan Park, MN: 1.32 inch
  • Floodwood, MN: 1.25 inch
  • 4 E Island Lake, MN: 1.19 inch
  • 3 E Wright, MN: 1.17 inch
  • Brainerd, MN: 1.16 inch
  • Butternut, WI: 0.72 inch
  • Hibbing, MN: 0.60 inch
  • Ashland, WI: 0.56 inch
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.55 inch
  • Hayward, WI: 0.49 inch
  • 4 W Clam Lake, WI: 0.47 inch
  • Hurley, WI: 0.45 inch
  • Winter, WI: 0.40 inch
  • Embarrass, MN: 0.30 inch
  • Babbitt, MN: 0.22 inch
  • Northome, MN: 0.06 inch
  • 12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 0.05 inch

Cooler temperatures across the area today, in fact today’s highs were the coolest we’ve seen around here since June 21 at Duluth (71 F) and at International Falls you have to go back to June 17 (63 F)

Certainly seeing some signs in long range model data for a cooler weather pattern locking in by next week. Blue and green colors on the map below represent below normal temperatures while orange and red colors represent above normal temperatures. Temperature anomaly forecast shown below valid from August 5 through 13 per 12 Euro Ensemble model.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, July 30.

Yes it will be a cool late July night, but probably not record cold — See record lows list below for July 30.

  • Ashland: 36 F set in 1918
  • International Falls: 38 F set in 1898
  • Brainerd: 40 F set in 1978
  • Hibbing: 41 F set in 1964, tied in 1971, 1992 and 2004
  • Duluth: 42 F set in 1971, tied in 1992

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, July 30.

…Weather Summary…

A nice stretch of weather is underway.

Strong low pressure has moved to near Hudson Bay Canada today with high pressure heading into the northern Plains. Gusty northwest winds were occurring in the Northland today due to a tight pressure gradient between the low and high. Cold air advection in wake of Sunday’s low has dropped 850mb temperatures to +8 to +10C today.

Fairly tranquil weather conditions through midweek as high pressure moves slowly E-SE out of the northern Plains. About the only weather issue will be some areas of fog late at night into the early morning hours, otherwise we’re looking at mostly clear skies through Wednesday.

Lows tonight and Tuesday night in the 40s and 50s. Highs Tuesday ranging from around 70 to the middle 70s with highs Wednesday in the 70s to around 80.

Southerly flow develops later this week as high pressure scoots off to the east. Will see an increase in dew points (humidity) Thursday and Friday so it will be turning muggier later this week. Also looks warm with highs Thursday and Friday mainly in the 80s.

Looks like we could be dealing with some scattered showers or thunderstorms in parts of the Northland late this week into the weekend, but doesn’t look like complete washouts at this time.

Rain continues this evening; a bit cooler Monday with spotty showers possible; warmer weather mid to late week

Rain will continue this evening in Duluth, rain comes to an end later this evening.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this evening in southern portions of the Northland, roughly along and south of a line from Willow River to Solon Springs to Namekagon.

Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this evening in the darker green shaded area on map.

…Primary threats…

  • Damaging wind gusts
  • Isolated tornadoes

Note: The risk for isolated tornadoes is greatest in the slight risk area.

Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 PM for areas just south of the Northland, heads up in Pine, Burnett, Washburn and Sawyer Counties as those areas are just north of the watch box, in other words, those Counties are near the watch meaning that severe weather is possible through early this evening.

There isn’t a lot of instability in southern areas of the Northland late this afternoon with CAPE generally ~500 J/kg, but there is 40 to 50 knots of shear and abundant low level shear to 25 knots along with 100-200 m2/s2 of Effective Storm Relative Helicity. Brief isolated tornadoes could develop early this evening due to the amount of shear that is in place across portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Low pressure with its warm front and cold front is moving through the Upper Midwest today, there is also a trough which is moving into the Northern Plains. Forcing associated with the low and trough has generated a large area of rain today which is moving into the Northland this afternoon.

18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Monday.

Rain continues this evening with rain tapering off from southwest to northeast by late tonight.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

Rainfall reports through 4 PM Sunday, July 28, 2019

Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu

  • Brainerd: 0.49 inch
  • Pine River: 0.38 inch
  • Minong: 0.22 inch
  • Hill City: 0.18 inch
  • Hinckley: 0.18 inch
  • Solon Springs: 0.17 inch
  • Moose Lake: 0.13 inch
  • Grand Rapids: 0.10 inch
  • Superior Airport: 0.06 inch
  • Hayward: 0.06 inch
  • Duluth Airport: 0.04 inch

Precipitation departure map for the week of July 21, 2019. The Arrowhead of Minnesota and southwest portions of the Northland had above normal rainfall last week, the rest of us had below normal rainfall.

Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of July 21, 2019. Most of the area saw average temperatures last week which were close to normal, the exception was around the southwest arm of Lake Superior where much warmer than normal temperatures occurred (orange colored areas on map) Note: I think the very dry conditions that have occurred this month in Duluth have played a role on why it’s been so warm this month.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

July 21-27, 2019

High temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/21: 77 F/Normal

7/22: 81 F/+4 degrees above normal

7/23: 85 F/+8 degrees above normal

7/24: 87 F/+10 degrees above normal

7/25: 85 F/+8 degrees above normal

7/26: 84 F/+7 degrees above normal

7/27: 85 F/+8 degrees above normal

Low temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/21: 55 F/-1 degree below normal

7/22: 54 F/-2 degrees below normal

7/23: 60 F/+4 degrees above normal

7/24: 59 F/+3 degrees above normal

7/25: 63 F/+7 degrees above normal

7/26: 66 F/+10 degrees above normal

7/27: 62 F/+6 degrees above normal

Note: Average temperature for the week of July 21, 2019: 71.6 degrees (+5.3 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total precipitation: 0.38 inches

Normal: 0.76 inches

Departure: -0.38 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of July 21

Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature: 69.2 degrees

Departure: -1.1 degrees below normal

Precipitation: 0.59 inches

Departure: -0.25 inches below normal

…Climate Normals and Sunrise/Sunset times for Duluth for the week of July 28…

Normal high on July 28th: 77 degrees

Normal high on August 3rd: 76 degrees

Normal low on July 28th: 56 degrees

Normal low on August 3rd: 56 degrees

Sunrise on July 28th: 5:44 AM

Sunrise on August 3rd: 5:50 AM

Sunset on July 28th: 8:46 PM

Sunset on August 3rd: 8:37 PM

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, July 29.

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Monday, July 29.

A rare occurrence in Duluth this month, a day where the high temperature fails to hit 80 degrees! Only 5 days or 18% of days so far this month have had a high temp below 80 F. Monday will be one of those days where the high doesn’t hit 80 degrees in Duluth.

…Weather Summary…

Rain continues this evening across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with an isolated risk of severe thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin. Rain tapers off from SW-NE by late this evening/overnight with patchy fog possible. An area of low pressure bringing rain to the area late this afternoon will lift northeast out of west-central Minnesota, and is forecast to reach northern Lake Superior by daybreak. Breezy northwest winds develop in wake of the low with wind gusts 15 to 25 mph from late tonight into Monday. There will be some cold air advection as the surface low departs with 850mb temps of +10 to +15C late this afternoon falling to around +5 to +10C by late Monday afternoon.

Lows tonight ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s with mostly cloudy skies expected through the night. Highs Monday ranging from the mid 60s in far northern Minnesota to the low-mid 70s in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. A mix of sun/clouds is forecast for Monday with isolated brief showers possible.

The weather from Tuesday through Thursday looks very nice around here with seasonable temps and low humidity with no threat of rain.

Might see some changes later in the week, although the European model has backed way off from prior runs which showed an upper low and widespread rain across the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday, now the Euro guidance keeps the rain in northern Minnesota with mostly dry weather farther south for Friday and Saturday. Stay tuned.

Note: 2019 Spirit Valley Days in West Duluth runs from Thursday, August 1st through Saturday, August 3rd. The weather for this event looks pretty good at the moment with mild temps and possibly somewhat more humid weather for late this week. Thursday and Friday look dry followed by a possibility of a few showers for Saturday. Schedule of Events link for Spirit Valley Days http://spiritvalleydays.com/friday/

Warm temperatures continue Sunday; rain arrives mid to late afternoon; Storm Reports from Friday July 26, 2019

Northland Storm Reports from Friday, July 26, 2019

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

10:30 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST — 55 mph. La Pointe.

9:55 PM: HAIL — 2.50 inch (tennis ball size hail) 3 N Washburn, WI (Bayfield County)

8:41 PM: MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND — 59 mph. 13 NE Sand Bay, WI (Ashland County) Report from Devils Island, WI.

8:20 PM: HAIL — 1.50 inch (ping pong ball size hail) 2 NNE Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)

8:19 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST — 52 mph. 4 W Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)

8:15 PM: HAIL — 0.50 inch. 2 NW Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)

8:06 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE — 2 ENE Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County) Uprooted tall pine tree fell on top of a house.

8:01 PM: HAIL — 0.25 inch. 3 SW Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County)

8:00 PM: HAIL — 0.50 inch. 2 E Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County)

7:59 PM: MARINE THUNDERSTORM WIND — 39 mph. 13 NE Sand Bay, WI (Ashland County) Report from Devils Island, WI.

7:40 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE — 5 N Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) Power line knocked down north of Two Harbors on Forest Highway 15.

7:34 PM: HAIL — 1.00 inch (quarter size hail) 6 NW Castle Danger, MN (Lake County)

7:04 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST — 42 mph. 5 E Sea Gull Lake, MN (Cook County)

6:33 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE — 4 ESE Sawbill Lake, MN (Cook County) Trees knocked down near Baker Lake Campground on the Grade Road.

6:20 PM: HAIL — 0.25 inch. 12 WNW Isabella, MN (Lake County)

6:15 PM: HAIL — 0.25 inch. 7 SE Sea Gull Lake, MN (Cook County)

6:12 PM: HAIL — 1.00 inch (quarter size hail) 6 ENE Makinen, MN (St. Louis County)

6:07 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST — 45 mph. 5 E Hibbing, MN (St. Louis County)

6:04 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST — 50 mph. 5 S Ely, MN (St. Louis County)

5:51 PM: HAIL — 1.25 inch (half dollar size hail) 3 SE Eveleth, MN (St. Louis County)

5:49 PM: HAIL — 0.70 inch. 6 SW Finlayson, MN (Pine County)

5:15 PM: HAIL — 0.25 inch. Soudan, MN (St. Louis County)

5:03 PM: HAIL — 0.25 inch. 4 N Chisholm, MN (St. Louis County)

5:01 PM: THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE — 1 SSE Tower, MN (St. Louis County) A 18 inch diameter tree downed. In addition, a few 100 year old tops of pine trees knocked off.

4:53 PM: HAIL — 1.25 inch (half dollar size hail) 1 ENE Angora, MN (St. Louis County)

4:49 PM: HAIL — 0.70 inch. 5 N Tower, MN (St. Louis County)

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*22 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees. July 2019 is in 4th place for most number of 80 degrees in the month of July. Note: The record is 25 days set in July 2012. Records for Duluth date back to 1874.

*0.38 inches of rain at the Duluth Airport on Friday, July 26, this is the first time since June 30 with a quarter inch or more of rain.

…Weather Summary…

Rain is on the way Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, but there are differences showing up in the models as to where the axis of greatest rainfall sets up, underneath this band (where it sets up) rain totals of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible.

The European model (shown below) has the heaviest rainfall affecting much of central into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin including Duluth and Superior, other computer models like the RAP and HRRR have the heaviest rain setting up farther south, targeting areas south of Duluth and Superior.

Duluth’s rainfall total for July (thru the 27th) is running -2.30 inches below normal, and the rainfall total since June 1 is running -2.43 inches below normal. There’s a chance that we could erase a good portion of this rainfall deficit with the rain event that could hit later in the day Sunday. Will see what happens.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday across southern portions of the Northland (blue shaded area on map) the risk area includes the Hinckley, Pine City and Sandstone areas, east to the Hayward Lakes.

Hail and gusty winds are the main threats in the risk area if a few strong to severe thunderstorms develop on Sunday.

Here’s a look at the radar forecast valid from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday per 18z NAM-WRF model

Sunday starts out dry, but rain is forecast to move into western-southern sections of the area during the late morning/early afternoon hours, then the rain is forecast to spread farther northeast through late Sunday afternoon. The rain that is expected on Sunday looks like a fairly widespread event unlike the past several events where the rain has been more scattered.

Rain should linger into Sunday evening, but should diminish from southwest to northeast later in the night.

Note: Rain could begin in Duluth and Superior in the 3-5 PM Sunday time frame.

Computer models are showing fairly impressive PWAT values or Precipitable water of 1.50 to around 1.90 inches on Sunday, so some heavier downpours are a possibility.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, July 28.

A beautiful night on the way with lows ranging from the middle 50s to lower 60s under clear to partly cloudy skies.

Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Sunday, July 28.

Clouds will be on the increase during the morning, but temperatures should warm quickly, reaching the lower to possibly middle 80s by midday. Rain spreads from southwest to northeast during the afternoon, and temperatures will fall a bit as the rain begins to fall.

Tim