Heavy rain and flooding reported in parts of the Northland Monday morning (Flood Warnings remain in effect) Few t-storms this evening; watching rain and snow chances Wednesday night-Thursday

From flooding rains Monday morning to possibly some snow early Thursday morning – It certainly has been and continues to be an active weather pattern as we say goodbye to September and hello to October!

Latest information on the flood warnings which remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon at the link below – https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20warning

Rainfall Reports from Monday morning, September 30, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 2 ENE Holyoke, MN: 5.52″
  • 2 SW Moose Lake, MN: 5.07″
  • Kettle River, MN: 5.00″
  • 1 SE Moose Lake, MN: 4.72″
  • 1 S Pleasant Valley, MN: 3.79″
  • 4 W Baxter, MN: 3.30″
  • 5 S McGregor, MN: 3.18″
  • 1 WSW Maple, WI: 3.13″
  • 6 SW Finalyson, MN: 3.06″
  • 2 SW Willow River, MN: 2.77″
  • 2 W Ino, WI: 2.75″
  • 2 S Hawthorne, WI: 2.60″
  • Brainerd, MN: 2.51″
  • 2 NNW Amnicon Falls, WI: 2.33″
  • 13 E Solon Springs, WI: 2.32″
  • Gile, WI: 2.31″
  • Ashland, WI: 1.96″
  • Washburn, WI: 1.89″
  • Superior, WI (Airport) 1.72″
  • 4 SSE Webster, WI: 1.65″
  • Minong, WI: 1.58″
  • 3 N Butternut, WI: 1.23″
  • 3 E Wright, MN: 1.12″
  • Hibbing, MN: 1.09″
  • Danbury, WI: 1.06″
  • Duluth, MN (Airport) 1.01″

Local Storm Reports from Monday morning, September 30, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 11:00 AM: Flash Flood – 2 SE McGrath, MN (Aitking County) Water over Highway 18 at the Snake River.
  • 10:30 AM: Flash Flood – 1 NNE Foxboro, WI (Douglas County) The Township of Summit is reporting the Patzau Foxboro road is closed due to high water.
  • 9:15 AM: Flash Flood – 4 NNW Patzau, WI (Douglas County) Douglas County Highway Department has closed County Highway W between Highway B and C where it crosses the Nemadji River due to high water.
  • 6:43 AM: Flash Flood – 1 N Foxboro, WI (Douglas County)
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The setup for severe weather this evening is actually quite potent, but whether or not we see anything develop remains to be seen. The area most at risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening is the red outlined area on the map below.

Warm front (red line on map) has pretty much stalled out this afternoon just north of I94 in central Minnesota while a cold front (blue line on map) moves east out of western Minnesota. Low pressure (red L on map) is lifting northeast across northern Minnesota.

Strong mid and upper level winds are spreading into the upper Midwest late today while a warm, humid and unstable air mass is in place from central Minnesota to central Wisconsin and points south. Strong wind shear of 40 to 60 knots along with Storm Relative Helicity values of around 200 m2/s2 to 300 m2/s2 were found in eastern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin as of 4 PM Monday. This is more than enough shear to produce rotating thunderstorms and an isolated tornado risk if storms can develop.

The limiting factors to get thunderstorms to develop are the warm temperatures aloft (cap) with 700mb temps of +10C, this along with generally weak forcing even with the fronts crossing the area may prevent thunderstorms from becoming severe this evening.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu

If you love weather, then you love to see a map like this. Big time temperature extremes across Minnesota today, ranging from the middle 40s in northwest Minnesota to the middle 80s in southern Minnesota. Note: La Crosse, Wisconsin had a temperature of 90 degrees at 4 PM today.

Note: We begin the month of October on Tuesday, here are the climate stats for October for Duluth, Minnesota

…Normals for the month…

Normal high on the 1st: 58 degrees; normal high on the 31st: 44 degrees

Normal low on the 1st: 40 degrees; normal low on the 31st: 30 degrees

  • Average temperature: 43.2 degrees
  • Precipitation: 2.85″
  • Snowfall: 2.3″

…Records for October…

  • Warmest: 55.9 degrees in 1963
  • Coldest: 33.5 degrees in 1917
  • Wettest: 7.53″ in 1949
  • Driest: 0.09″ in 1895
  • Snowiest: 14.0″ in 1933

Average number of 70 degree days in October: 2; most was 12 in 1963.

Average number of days with a low of 32 degrees or colder: 10; most was 24 set in 2002.

Average number of days with snowfall of at least 0.1″: 2; most was 8 set in 1925 and tied in 1959.

Astronomical Data for October

Sunrise on the 1st: 7:07 AM CDT

Sunrise on the 31st: 7:48 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st: 6:49 PM CDT

Sunset on the 31st: 5:54 PM CDT

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Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, October 1. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, October 1

I’m keeping a close eye on model trends for Wednesday night and Thursday as some parts of the Northland could get their first snow of the season! Stay tuned

…Weather Summary…

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be found in parts of the Northland this evening as low pressure, warm front and cold front pass through the area. This system exits to the north/east by late tonight with mainly dry conditions expected overnight. Lows tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

Cooler Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies. A few showers are possible, but the greatest chance for heavier rain will be found farther south from southern Minnesota into central and southern Wisconsin. Highs Tuesday in the 40s to lower 50s with north or northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

A potentially interesting setup for Wednesday night into Thursday morning as we could see an inverted trough develop across the upper Midwest as an area of low pressure passes well south of our area. High pressure north of Lake Superior will do its best to bring some cold air down into our area while some moisture lifts north into that cold air, result from this could be for the season’s first snow or rain mixing with snow scenario in north central into northeast Minnesota late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As for temperatures, the NAM model is quite aggressive in bringing in the cold air with 850mb temperatures of -1 to -3C along with 925mb temperatures of around -1C, both of which are favorable for snow if near surface temps are cold enough, and those look to be in the 33 to 36 degree range late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. These early season snow events are always tricky as the temperatures aloft and near the surface could trend warmer or cooler in coming days, warmer air would result in mostly rain while cooler air results in possibly more snow.

…Looking ahead…

Friday is looking dry at the moment with rain chances returning for Saturday.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Showers or thunderstorms possible early with fog and drizzle. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind east 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest with gusts to 25 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible mainly in the morning. High 50 to 55. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. High 42 to 47. Wind east to northeast 10 to 20 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Thunderstorms late tonight and Monday (heavy rain possible) more rain chances midweek

A wet week ahead – Rain chances tonight and Monday, Wednesday-Thursday and on Saturday. Foggy as well, especially tonight and Monday.

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Warm front (red line on map below) will lift north out of Iowa tonight into Monday. A strong low level jet will transport warm and humid air north into the upper Midwest while elevated instability also increases from SW-NE tonight, net result from all this is for showers and thunderstorms to become more numerous tonight, lingering into Monday.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over the entire Northland from late tonight into Monday. Hail is the primary threat in the stronger storms.

Sunday afternoon dew points range from the 40s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to the lower 70s in southeast Nebraska. That soupy air mass currently over the Central Plains will lift north into the upper Midwest through Monday. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov

18z HRRR model radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Monday. Source: https://weather.cod.edu

There is potential for heavy rain and possibly some flooding overnight into Monday morning in parts of the Northland especially if thunderstorms move over the same location for a few hours. Model guidance has been showing a corridor of potentially excessive rainfall amounts setting up near and south of the Highway 2 corridor late tonight into Monday morning.

Source: https://weather.us

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A powerful winter storm continues today over the Northern Rockies with a strong upper level low/trough spinning over that area per Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery. Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Note: Here’s a link to snowfall reports per Great Falls, Montana NWS https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=tfx&pil=pns&sid=tfx

Link to the latest storm summary from the Weather Prediction Center https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

A highly amplified weather pattern will continue the next few days with a strong ridge to the south-southeast and a strong trough to the west, eventually will see the big ridge break down as the trough over the western U.S. pushes east.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.28.19; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Here’s what the pattern is forecast to look like by midweek. The ridge breaks down just a bit, but still looks hot over a large portion of the southern and eastern U.S. through midweek while cooler air pushes south and east out of the Northern Rockies. Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, September 30. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Monday, September 30

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for September 22-28, 2019

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 9/22: 65F/+3 degrees above normal
  • 9/23: 74F/+12 degrees above normal
  • 9/24: 77F/+16 degrees above normal
  • 9/25: 67F/+6 degrees above normal
  • 9/26: 66F/+5 degrees above normal
  • 9/27: 61F/+1 degree above normal
  • 9/28: 60F/Normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 9/22: 56F/+12 degrees above normal
  • 9/23: 50F/+7 degrees above normal
  • 9/24: 55F/+12 degrees above normal
  • 9/25: 48F/+6 degrees above normal
  • 9/26: 40F/-2 degrees below normal
  • 9/27: 41F/-1 degree below normal
  • 9/28: 37F/-4 degrees below normal

Average temperature for the week of September 22: 56.9 degrees; +5.3 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

  • Total Precipitation: 0.11″
  • Normal: 0.92″
  • Departure: -0.81″ below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 22, 2019. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

  • Average temperature: 58.9 degrees
  • Departure: +4.0 degrees above normal
  • Precipitation: 0.43″
  • Departure: -0.31″ below normal

Temperature departure map for the week of September 22. Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of September 22.

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…Weather Summary…

Fog and drizzle with showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday. Drying out a bit Tuesday before more rain chances return for midweek.

Low pressure over the western High Plains this Sunday afternoon is forecast to move into eastern South Dakota by daybreak (Monday) this low is then forecast to continue lifting NE, reaching northern Minnesota Monday afternoon, and by Tuesday morning the low is forecast to be just south of Hudson Bay.

Strong warm air and moisture advection will continue over the Northland through Monday which will result in fog and drizzle while lift increases with the approach of the low, warm front and trough, this will cause showers and thunderstorms across the Northland from later this evening through Monday.

Instability will ramp up tonight thanks to a strong low level jet, and this instability will remain over east-central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin on Monday. Strong winds aloft, strong wind shear combined with an unstable air mass could cause a few strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of the Northland tonight and Monday. Hail will be the primary threat as storms remain elevated, but gusty winds are also possible especially if surface-based convection can develop, which doesn’t look very likely given the overall setup.

Of greater concern could be the threat for heavy rain which may lead to some flooding in parts of the Northland late tonight into at least Monday morning. Precipitable water increasing to >1.50″ will certainly produce torrential downpours where storms occur, and if storms line up over the same area/s for a few hours, this would increase the threat for flash flooding.

Warmer temperatures aloft will move over the Northland on Monday with 700mb temperatures approaching +10C, this should hinder thunderstorm redevelopment Monday afternoon-evening as a cold front moves through the area, however, if the forcing with the cold front is strong enough to break through the cap, then widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could develop late Monday afternoon or evening in east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.

Lows tonight will remain nearly steady in the mid 40s to mid 50s with east winds 10 to 20 mph.

We may see a rather large temperature gradient setup late Monday afternoon with 70s possible from Brainerd, east to Hayward with 50s and 60s elsewhere. Winds on Monday will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Cold front and the greatest chance for rain settles south of the Northland on Tuesday, but a few showers are still possible in parts of our area on Tuesday along with mostly cloudy skies.

We could see a more organized system develop in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Depending on where it develops and tracks will determine if we get another round of rain in the Northland during the middle of the week. Also, if the midweek system does develop and is able to tap into colder air, then it’s possible we could see a rain/snow mix somewhere in the Northland. Stay tuned.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Fog and drizzle. Showers and thunderstorms developing late. Downpours possible overnight. Low 44 to 49. Wind east 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday… Fog and drizzle. Showers and thunderstorms in the morning with downpours possible. A few showers later in the day. High 55 to 60. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Cool. High 45 to 50. Wind north to northwest 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

  • High 59
  • Low 40
  • Sunrise Monday 7:06 AM CDT
  • Sunset Monday 6:51 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Wet weather on the way with occasional rain late tonight through Monday; few strong to severe t-storms possible Sunday night-Monday

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday night in much of the Northland (blue shaded area on map) Primary threat is hail.

A little bit of everything out there today with summer heat hanging on across the southern and eastern U.S.; while signs of winter are showing up across the northern Rockies.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov

A classic fall storm is on the way with cold, wind and snow on one side of the low with warm and humid air on the other side of the low with showers and thunderstorms.

Source: 18z Nam-Nest model; https://weather.cod.edu

Here’s the 18z HRRR model radar forecast valid from 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM Monday. Source: https://weather.cod.edu

A powerful trough over the western U.S. today per Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery from Saturday, September 28, 2019.

The western trough will slide east and will eventually break down the massive ridge which is over the southern/eastern U.S.; this will allow cooler weather to push south/east out of the western U.S. from mid to late next week.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.28.19; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

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It’s been a warm and wet September in Duluth. The average temperature for the month (thru the 27th) 60.4 degrees, this is +4.2 degrees above normal. Note: September 2019 currently ranks as 6th warmest September on record in Duluth.

So far this September, 4.51 inches of rain (thru the 27th) in Duluth, this is +0.77 inches above normal.

Note: September 2019 currently ranks as 3rd warmest September on record in Brainerd. Average temperature thru the 27th: 62.9 degrees. Warmest September on record occurred in 1931 and 2009 with an average temperature of 63.6 degrees.

Low temperature reports from Saturday morning, September 28, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 2 W Iron Junction, MN: 25 F
  • Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 26 F
  • Eveleth, MN: 26 F
  • Cook, MN: 27 F
  • Ely, MN: 27 F
  • Aitkin, MN: 28 F
  • Silver Bay, MN: 28 F
  • Crane Lake, MN: 28 F
  • Grand Marais, MN (Airport) 28 F
  • Bigfork, MN: 28 F
  • Orr, MN: 28 F
  • Hill City, MN: 29 F
  • International Falls, MN: 29 F
  • Isabella, MN: 30 F
  • Grand Rapids, MN: 30 F
  • Pine River, MN: 30 F
  • Longville, MN: 30 F
  • Walker, MN: 31 F
  • Hermantown, MN: 32 F
  • Deer River, MN: 32 F
  • Saginaw, MN: 32 F
  • Grand Portage, MN: 32 F
  • McGregor, MN: 32 F
  • Moose Lake, MN: 32 F
  • Superior, WI (Airport) 32 F
  • South Range, WI: 33 F
  • Esko, MN: 34 F
  • Cloquet, MN: 34 F
  • Solon Springs, WI: 34 F
  • Brainerd, MN: 35 F
  • Hayward, WI: 35 F
  • Siren, WI: 35 F
  • Hinckley, MN: 36 F
  • Duluth, MN (Airport) 37 F
  • Danbury, WI: 38 F
  • Glidden, WI: 38 F

Note: Low of 37 degrees at the Duluth Airport Saturday morning, September 28th, this is the coldest temperature in Duluth since May 20th, low of 36 degrees.

Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, September 29. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Sunday, September 29

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…Weather Summary…

A cool late September day but nothing really out of the ordinary with highs today in the 50s which is slightly below normal. Patchy stratocumulus clouds were found in northern Minnesota today while more extensive clouds (mid and high level variety) spread E-NE out of western Minnesota per Goes-16 satellite imagery.

September will end on a wet note thanks to a large upper level trough over the western U.S. Southerly winds ahead of this trough will pull warm and humid air northward into the upper Midwest through Monday.

As low pressure approaches from the SW along with its warm front will see showers break out over the Northland later tonight and during the day Sunday.

Lows tonight will range from the middle 30s to middle 40s, not quite as cold as it was Saturday morning, and with clouds increasing during the night there is little chance for frost formation. Sunday will be a cool day with highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s with easterly winds gusting 10 to 20 mph.

Initially there is very little instability so will likely just have some showers in our area later tonight and Sunday, but a push of higher instability is forecast to lift NE into our area Sunday night with CAPE of 500 to around 1500 J/kg, this along with the warm front nosing into southern Minnesota combined with a strong low level jet of up to 55 knots will likely produce some thunderstorms for Sunday night. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main threats from these storms, but hail is also possible in the strongest storms Sunday night. Note: Precipitable water increasing to >1.50″ Sunday night does raise a concern for possible flooding if thunderstorms begin to move over the same location, this potential also extends into Monday.

Low pressure is forecast to move E/NE out of eastern South Dakota on Monday while a warm front remains near or over the Northland while a cold front moves east out of western Minnesota. An unstable air mass is expected to linger over eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin Monday with more showers and thunderstorms forecast to develop. A few of the storms could become strong to severe on Monday from east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin, but warm temperatures aloft may keep the atmosphere capped from producing surface-based storms, if this is the case, then the main threat from the stronger storms on Monday would continue to be from hail and perhaps gusty winds, but if surface-based thunderstorms are able to develop, then we could have a short window where a few tornadoes could develop. Stay tuned.

Much cooler temperatures will push SE into the Northland the middle of next week with lingering chances for some light rain Tuesday through Thursday.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible mainly after Midnight. Low 45 to 49. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday… Breezy. Occasional showers. Thunderstorms possible Sunday night. Mostly cloudy. Some fog and drizzle possible. High 49 to 53. Wind east 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday… Occasional showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog and drizzle. High 57 to 62. Wind east 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

  • High 59
  • Low 41
  • Sunrise Sunday 7:05 AM CDT
  • Sunset Sunday 6:53 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Frost Advisory issued for northern Minnesota. Chilly tonight; some sun, cool Saturday; stormy weather Sunday-Monday

Frost advisory has been issued for northern Minnesota and for parts of northeast Minnesota, the frost advisory is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM Saturday. Some cities included in the advisory are International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Hill City, Hibbing, Cook, Orr, Ely and Isabella. Temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s early Saturday morning in the advisory area. Frost could harm sensitive vegetation.

Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning, September 28. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Saturday, September 28.

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A classic fall storm on the way this weekend!

Check out this temperature gradient for Sunday evening (see map below)

Strong warm air advection with rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected in the upper Midwest Sunday and Monday while a major winter storm hits the Northern Rockies in the cold air on the backside of low pressure.

Source: 18z NAM model; https://weather.cod.edu

We’ve reached the time of year where we can get a colorful headlines map, and this is the case this Friday evening with many different weather headlines in effect. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Saturday will be a dry day in the Northland, but some showers could arrive from the SW Saturday night. Occasional showers expected Sunday along with cool temperatures and easterly winds. Also of interest to some is the snow that gets going Saturday (blue colors on map) over the Northern Rockies.

Note: Radar forecast below is from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM Monday.

Source: 18z NAM model; https://weather.cod.edu

Here’s the latest snowfall forecast and impacts ahead of the historic winter storm set to hit the Northern Rockies this weekend.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/tfx/

Source: https://www.weather.gov/mso/

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Rainfall Reports from Thursday night-Friday, September 26-27, 2019. Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu

  • Minong, WI: 0.32″
  • Washburn, WI: 0.27″
  • Barnes, WI: 0.26″
  • International Falls, MN: 0.24″
  • Clam Lake, WI: 0.23″
  • Hayward, WI: 0.22″
  • Hinckley, MN: 0.20″
  • Ashland, WI: 0.19″
  • Grand Marais, MN: 0.18″
  • Solon Springs, WI: 0.18″
  • Siren, WI: 0.17″
  • Isabella, MN: 0.16″
  • Hibbing-Chisholm, MN: 0.14″
  • Ely, MN: 0.13″
  • Glidden, WI: 0.11″
  • Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.10″
  • Silver Bay, MN: 0.09″
  • Brainerd, MN: 0.08″
  • Two Harbors, MN: 0.07″
  • Grand Rapids, MN: 0.07″
  • Cloquet, MN: 0.06″

…Weather Summary…

System which brought some rain to the Northland last night and this morning has moved off to the east, but clouds have lingered all day in most of the area in a cold air advection pattern, but clearing is occurring late this afternoon across northern Minnesota, and the clearing line is pushing south-southeast late this Friday afternoon per Goes-16 satellite imagery.

Skies will clear from NW-SE tonight which will set the stage for a chilly Saturday morning as lows fall into the 30s to lower 40s with a few 20s in the typical cold spots in northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

A cool but nice Saturday is expected under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs ranging from the lower 50s to around 60 degrees with variable winds around 10 mph.

Changes begin Saturday night as a large trough and area of low pressure set up across the Rockies while a cold front, the same one that moved through our area last night begins to lift back north as a warm front, this front is forecast to be near the Kansas-Oklahoma border Saturday evening, reaching the Minnesota-Iowa border Sunday evening. A strong low level jet begins to transport warm and humid air north out of the Plains Saturday night, and this should cause some showers to break out across the Northland Saturday night but more so during the day Sunday.

As the low level jet continues to pump warm and humid air north on Sunday, it will also help transport increasing amounts of elevated instability into the Northland which will cause thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, a few of the storms could become strong to severe Sunday night with a threat for hail.

Monday could be an interesting day with a large temperature gradient possibly setting up over the Northland along with the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. Temperatures Monday afternoon could range from the mid 40s to low 50s in northern Minnesota and Arrowhead areas with 70s to near 80 degree temps possibly pushing north into eastern Minnesota and southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. A warm front is forecast to continue lifting north on Monday while a cold front and area of low pressure approach from the west — Computer models show ample amounts of instability remaining over central and eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin Monday, and this coupled with strong mid and upper level winds spreading into the upper Midwest could lead to strong to severe thunderstorm development Monday into Monday evening over parts of the Northland. Note: Storms on Monday could have a tornado threat depending on how things set up, otherwise storms would be hail and or wind producers. Stay tuned.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy this evening followed by decreasing cloudiness. Patchy frost possible. Low 35 to 40. Wind north to northwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday… Mostly sunny with some increase in cloudiness in the afternoon. High 55 to 60. Wind north to northwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday… Breezy and cool. Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Drizzle and fog. High 47 to 52. Wind east 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

  • High 60
  • Low 41
  • Sunrise Saturday 7:03 AM CDT
  • Sunset Saturday 6:55 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Scattered showers tonight-Friday AM; frost threat Saturday AM; strong t-storms possible Sunday-Monday

A little more rain on the way!

Scattered areas of rain will pass through the Northland later this evening into Friday morning with mainly dry weather expected by Friday afternoon.

18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Friday. Source: https://weathermodels.com

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

Our next system is a quick mover and will be out of the Northland by Friday afternoon.

Look at how fast mid level moisture is moving off to the east today from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest per Goes-16 water vapor satellite imagery. Source: https://weather.cod.edu

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov

Low temperature reports from Thursday morning, September 26, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 29 F
  • Bigfork, MN: 30 F
  • Eveleth, MN: 31 F
  • Solon Springs, WI: 32 F
  • Pine River, MN: 32 F
  • Hill City, MN: 34 F
  • Cook, MN: 34 F
  • Moose Lake, MN: 34 F
  • International Falls, MN: 35 F
  • Deer River, MN: 36 F
  • Aitkin, MN: 36 F
  • Orr, MN: 36 F
  • Superior, WI (Airport) 36 F
  • Walker, MN: 36 F
  • Hinckley, MN: 37 F
  • Silver Bay, MN: 37 F
  • Two Harbors, MN: 37 F
  • Minong, WI: 37 F
  • Esko, MN: 38 F
  • Isabella, MN: 38 F
  • Hayward, WI: 38 F
  • South Range, WI: 39 F
  • Cloquet, MN: 39 F

Note: Low temperature of 40 degrees at the Duluth Airport Thursday morning, September 26, this is the coldest temperature in Duluth since June 13 when the low was also 40 degrees.

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, September 27. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Friday, September 27

Still looking at a stormy weather pattern in the Northland for late this weekend into early next week with periods of rain and thunderstorms while a major winter storm (possible blizzard conditions) impacts the Northern Rockies this weekend.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 9.25.19; https://weathermodels.com

Powerful winter storm gets going Saturday morning in parts of Montana with snow and wind increasing throughout the day Saturday. Snow shows up as blue colors on the map below.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 9.26.19

Note: Radar forecast below is from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM Sunday.

Big time problems on the way for the Northern Rockies this weekend as a potentially historic late September winter storm hits that area.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/tfx/

Source: https://www.weather.gov/mso/

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…Weather Summary…

A nice sunny start to today but clouds have been increasing from west to east this afternoon as the next low to affect the Northland approaches from the west.

Tonight’s system is pretty strong but it is lacking moisture as precipitable water only gets into the 0.90 to 1.10 inch range. A strong low level jet of 40-50 knots will be in place ahead of the low which will advect the aforementioned moisture into the Northland tonight, while a corridor of strong winds aloft >120 knots stretches from North Dakota to Lake Superior tonight which will provide some extra lift in the atmosphere. The end result from all this will be for some showers to affect northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight into Friday morning.

Lows tonight will be milder compared to Thursday morning’s lows due to the clouds, southerly flow and showers. Lows tonight will range from the middle 40s to middle 50s with S-SW winds 10 to 20 mph.

Rain showers are possible Friday morning especially from east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin due to a possible F-GEN (frontogenesis) band of rain which may develop and impact portions of the Northland Friday morning.

Drier weather is expected Friday afternoon and this should continue through the day Saturday as will see low pressure pass north of Lake Superior on Friday while high pressure builds into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes on Saturday. Rain chances diminish as the low exits while the high moves in.

Highs on Friday will be in the 50s to lower 60s with winds shifting to NW at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Frost threat returns to the Northland Friday night-Saturday morning with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees with some 20s possible in the typical cold spots.

Scattered showers could move into parts of the Northland Saturday night with a better chance for showers on Sunday. This is all ahead of a powerful fall storm which will impact the Northland late this weekend into early next week. A warm front surges north out of the Central Plains on Sunday with increasing amounts of elevated CAPE, this should cause some thunderstorms to break out in our area Sunday and Sunday night with even a risk for stronger storms (hail threat) The risk for showers and thunderstorms continues Monday as a warm front continues to lift northward while a cold front moves out of the Dakotas.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers developing. Low 50 to 53. Wind south 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday… Breezy. Showers possible in the morning otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 57 to 61. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 56 to 61. Wind becoming northeast 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

  • High 60
  • Low 42
  • Sunrise Friday 7:02 AM CDT
  • Sunset Friday 6:57 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!