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An active week ahead with wind, rain, thunder and cool temps; big warm up possible mid month

A wet week ahead! Rain chances increase across the Northland on Monday with a break in the rain for Tuesday before more rain chances return for mid to late week.

Computer models continue to show the potential for quite a bit of rain which will come in waves this week. Widespread 2 to 4 inch rain totals are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by Sunday, September 15.

Note: Duluth’s average rainfall total for this week (Sept 8-14) is 1.00 inch, potential is there for 2-3″+ rain totals this week which would be well above average!

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com

18z NAM-WRF radar forecast valid from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday.

A few showers are possible Monday morning into early afternoon which will be followed by a more widespread area of rain which moves SW-NE across the Northland Monday afternoon through Monday night. Rain should be outta here by 7 AM Tuesday the way it looks now.

A wet bias continues in the upper Midwest and nearby areas for the next 2 weeks per long range model data.

Source: https://weathermodels.com

One of the reasons why this week will be wet at times is because of a strong baroclinic zone which separates cool air to the north and warm air to the south. The Northland will be on the cool side of the baroclinic zone this week which increases the chances for getting some rain as warm air to our south moves north while clashing with the cool air.

Note – Blue and green colors indicate below normal temps with orange and red colors indicating above normal temps on the map below.

Source: 12z European ensemble model valid from September 8 thru 13, 2019; https://weathermodels.com

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, September 9. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov

High temperature forecast for Monday, September 9

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A significant warming trend is possible in the Northland beginning around September 15. These warmer temps could then stick around for several days, and may even be accompanied by some high dew points (humid airmass) at times.

Note: Daytime highs in the 70s, maybe even a few 80s are possible in the Northland from ~September 15 to September 20.

Orange and red colors on the map below indicate above normal temperatures.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for the period September 1 thru 7, 2019.

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 9/1: 68F/-3 degrees below normal
  • 9/2: 67F/-3 degrees below normal
  • 9/3: 69F/-1 degree below normal
  • 9/4: 70F/Normal
  • 9/5: 64F/-5 degrees below normal
  • 9/6: 77F/+8 degrees above normal
  • 9/7: 60F/-9 degrees below normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 9/1: 55F/+3 degrees above normal
  • 9/2: 50F/-1 degree below normal
  • 9/3: 52F/+1 degree above normal
  • 9/4: 49F/-2 degrees below normal
  • 9/5: 51F/+1 degree above normal
  • 9/6: 56F/+6 degrees above normal
  • 9/7: 51F/+1 degree above normal

Average temperature for the week of September 1: 59.9 degrees; -0.2 degrees below normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

  • Total Precipitation: 0.91″
  • Normal: 0.95″
  • Departure: -0.04″ below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 1, 2019

  • Temperature: 62.1 degrees
  • Departure: -1.6 degrees below normal
  • Precipitation: 0.60″
  • Departure: -0.18″ below normal

Temperature departure map for the week of September 1, 2019. Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of September 1, 2019.

…Weather Summary…

An area of high pressure will remain in close proximity to Lake Superior tonight while low pressure heads through the Northern Rockies.

The high to our NE will feed some dry air into the Northland on NE winds tonight but eventually the Northern Rockies low will win out and bring a slug of moisture north into our area during the day Monday.

Lows tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s with east winds 5 to 15 mph. Highs Monday will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with east winds 10 to 20 mph.

Atmospheric lift will increase on Monday due to strong upper level winds and also because of a northeastward moving warm front. Rain will become more widespread across the Northland Monday afternoon through Monday evening with scattered showers lingering into early Tuesday morning.

A few thunderstorms are also possible Monday afternoon into Monday night with downpours and some lightning being the primary hazards, but hail can’t be ruled out if stronger storms can develop, but this will depend on the amount of elevated CAPE that is available for thunderstorms Monday night, which at the moment doesn’t look that impressive with MUCAPE of a few hundred J/kg.

Looks like will get a break in the rain on Tuesday as low pressure and its warm front and cold front push off to the south/east.

The baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) looks to intensify again mid to late week with more rounds of rain, wind, thunder and cool temps in the Northland.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Wind east 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday… Breezy. A few showers possible with a steadier rain arriving between 2-4 PM. Mostly cloudy. High 56 to 61. Wind east 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday night… Breezy with fog and drizzle. Occasional rain. A few thunderstorms possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind east 15 to 25 mph, decreasing to 10 to 15 mph late.

.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68. Wind northeast becoming west 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

  • High 68
  • Low 49
  • Sunrise Monday 6:38 AM CDT
  • Sunset Monday 7:33 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

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