Little bit of snow possible on Friday; cold pattern continues into next week

Here’s the radar forecast valid for 5 AM Friday

Source: 21z HRRR model; https://weathermodels.com/

Climate Normals for November at Duluth, Minnesota

  • Normal high on the 1st: 44F
  • Normal high on the 30th: 28F
  • Normal low on the 1st: 28F
  • Normal low on the 30th: 14F
  • 7 days with snowfall of at least 0.1″
  • 3 days with snowfall of at least 1.0″
  • 1 day with a subzero low temperature
  • Precipitation: 2.09″
  • Snowfall: 13.7″

November records at Duluth, Minnesota

  • Wettest: 5.08″ set in 2000
  • Driest: 0.09″ set in 1917
  • Snowiest: 50.1″ set in 1991
  • Least snowiest: Trace set in 1928
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Past November Snowfall Totals at Duluth, Minnesota from 2000 through 2018.

Note: Normal snowfall in November is 13.7″

  • 2000: 17.5″
  • 2001: 11.4″
  • 2002: 4.3″
  • 2003: 19.4″
  • 2004: 1.4″
  • 2005: 11.4″
  • 2006: 4.0″
  • 2007: 6.0″
  • 2008: 3.2″
  • 2009: 1.1″
  • 2010: 27.9″
  • 2011: 3.7″
  • 2012: 10.1″
  • 2013: 4.7″
  • 2014: 16.4″
  • 2015: 4.4″
  • 2016: 8.1″
  • 2017: 10.5″
  • 2018: 12.2″

-Only 4 Novembers since 2000 have had above average snowfall in Duluth (2000, 2003, 2010 and 2014)

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Average monthly temperature for November at Duluth, Minnesota from 2000 through 2018.

Note: Mean temperature for November is 28.8 degrees.

  • 2000: 28.6 degrees
  • 2001: 39.5 degrees
  • 2002: 25.6 degrees
  • 2003: 26.6 degrees
  • 2004: 33.4 degrees
  • 2005: 30.7 degrees
  • 2006: 31.8 degrees
  • 2007: 28.9 degrees
  • 2008: 28.9 degrees
  • 2009: 37.9 degrees
  • 2010: 30.5 degrees
  • 2011: 33.1 degrees
  • 2012: 30.9 degrees
  • 2013: 27.9 degrees
  • 2014: 21.8 degrees
  • 2015: 36.7 degrees
  • 2016: 40.2 degrees
  • 2017: 25.7 degrees
  • 2018: 23.2 degrees

7 Novembers since 2000 have had a mean temperature which was below normal in Duluth (2000, 2002, 2003, 2013, 2014, 2017 and 2018)

Note: Climate record period for Duluth dates back to 1870.

4 of the top 5 warmest Novembers on record in Duluth have occurred since 2000. 2nd warmest November occurred in 2016, 3rd warmest in 2001, 4th warmest in 2009 and 5th warmest November was in 2015.

One November since 2000 was top 10 coldest, this occurred in 2014 with the 8th coldest November on record in Duluth.

Wettest November on record was in 2000, while November 2002 ranked as 8th driest November in Duluth.

One November since 2000 has ranked in the top 10 for most snow, this was in 2010 with the 7th snowiest November on record in Duluth.

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Quite a storm affecting the eastern Great Lakes and east coast today with snow and wind on the cold side in places like Chicago and Milwaukee while a risk of severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes occurs on the warm side of this storm over the Mid-Atlantic, south to parts of the Carolinas.

Source: Goes-16 water vapor imagery 10.31.19; https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

18z HRRR model radar forecast valid from 1 AM tonight to 1 AM Saturday. Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Blue=snow

Green=rain

Low temperature forecast for Friday morning, November 1. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Friday, November 1

Still looks cold next week!

Source: 12z European ensemble model 10.31.19; https://weathermodels.com/

…Weather Summary…

Mostly cloudy skies will linger through the night in far northeast Minnesota while clear to partly cloudy skies will continue elsewhere this evening followed by increasing cloudiness.

The first in a series of NW flow systems will move across the Northland on Friday which will be followed by a couple more through early next week. None of these systems look very strong and should only produce a little snow or a rain/snow mix at times from Friday through early next week.

Snowfall amounts with Friday’s system should remain less than an inch for those who happen to get a burst of snow.

Lows tonight will mainly be in the 20s with highs Friday in the 30s.

Southerly winds tonight will become west to northwest Friday at 10 to 20 mph.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Clear early then increasing cloudiness. Some light snow possible after 4 AM. Low 23 to 28. Wind south to southwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible early followed by a few snow or rain showers. Snowfall accumulations less than an inch. High 35 to 39. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest.

.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 38. Wind northwest 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for November 1

  • High 44
  • Low 29
  • Sunrise Friday 7:51 AM CDT
  • Sunset Friday 5:53 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Cold now, even colder mid to late next week! Friday flakes

A cold Halloween ahead from Winnipeg to the Soo (Sault Ste. Marie) south to Memphis, New Orleans to Mexico City! Blue blob everywhere, run! Warm spots for Halloween include the eastern U.S. and parts of the far western U.S.

Source: 12z European model 10.30.19; https://weather.us/

Well the Halloween snow event which looked to impact portions of Minnesota several days ago has only shifted a couple hundred miles to the east since then, forecast models weren’t too far off.

Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Rinse and Repeat! Next week’s pattern continues to look quite cold! I think some parts of the Northland will have low temperatures dipping into the single digits, possibly close to 0F sometime mid to late next week.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 10.30.19; https://weathermodels.com/

Temperature anomaly forecast for next week per 12z European ensemble model from 10.30.19

Low temperature forecast for Thursday morning, October 31. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Thursday, October 31

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Low Temperature Reports of 20F or colder from around the Northland from Wednesday morning, October 30, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • Silver Bay: 12F
  • Solon Springs: 14F
  • Butternut: 16F
  • Hurley: 16F
  • Ashland: 16F
  • Hayward: 16F
  • Two Harbors: 16F
  • Cass Lake: 17F
  • Embarrass: 17F
  • Grand Marais: 18F
  • 3 E Wright: 18F
  • Cotton: 18F
  • 4 W Clam Lake: 18F
  • Bigfork: 19F
  • Duluth Airport: 19F
  • International Falls: 19F
  • Aitkin: 19F
  • Cloquet: 19F
  • Walker: 19F
  • Superior: 19F
  • Kabetogama: 19F
  • Brainerd: 20F
  • Northome: 20F
  • 25 E Ely: 20F
  • Cook: 20F
  • 3 E Orr: 20F

Weather Tidbits

-Low temperature of 19 degrees in Duluth Wednesday morning, October 30, first time since April 14 with a low temperature in the teens.

-International Falls and Hibbing both had a top 5 coldest high temperature on record for October 29, while Hibbing also had a top 5 lowest minimum temperature for October 29.

…Weather Summary…

Outside of the cold temperatures there really isn’t much else to talk about when it comes to the weather around here.

The pattern is a quiet one, at least in terms of impactful storm systems affecting the Northland through next week, that’s what a cold/dry airmass will do, it keeps the big storms away (at least most of the time)

A few flurries possible in spots tonight, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the lower teens to lower 20s. Winds will be out of the southwest or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Halloween is looking dry but cold under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs ranging from around 30 to 36 degrees with lows Thursday night in the teens and 20s. Winds on Thursday will be out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

There should be a little bit of snow falling from the sky at times on Friday, but this won’t amount to much, maybe a light dusting in a few spots but that would be about it. A cold front moving through the region on Friday will produce this storm of flurries. Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the 30s.

Note: Could be some additional snow showers or mixed rain/snow showers this weekend but little if any snow accumulation is expected the way it looks now. A system in the Sunday night-Monday time frame could bring a light snowfall to some parts of the area but computer models differ on the exact track of that one, stay tuned.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy with some decrease in cloudiness possible later on. Low 17 to 22. Wind becoming northwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Halloween… Partly cloudy. High 32 to 35. Wind northwest 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Mostly cloudy. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 35 to 38. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest.

Normal temperatures for October 31

  • High 44
  • Low 30
  • Sunrise Thursday 7:49 AM CDT
  • Sunset Thursday 5:55 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Cold pattern continues into next week; watching snow chances for Friday, and early next week

We have the cold, now we just need some snow, and it looks like will get a little bit of snow in the Northland on Friday, won’t be much as accumulations remain less than one inch.

Keeping an eye on another system late this weekend-early next week, that one may pack a little more of a punch with a few inches of snow possible in some parts of the Northland, and a snow to rain scenario in other parts of the area.

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A busy weather headlines map today! Winter weather continues across parts of the Rockies spreading into the Plains tonight and Wednesday. Freeze warnings in parts of Texas, while extreme fire weather conditions continue in parts of California, also in parts of Arizona.

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Low of 23 degrees at the Duluth Airport Tuesday morning, October 29 — Coldest temperature since April 15, low of 21 degrees.

International Falls and Hibbing, Minnesota both had a top 5 lowest maximum temperature on record for October 28.

Low temperature reports of 20 F or colder from Tuesday morning, October 29, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • Hibbing, MN: 14F
  • Cotton, MN: 17F
  • Embarrass, MN: 17F
  • Kabetogama, MN: 19F
  • Two Harbors, MN: 19F
  • Silver Bay, MN: 19F
  • Orr, MN: 19F
  • Crane Lake, MN: 19F
  • Eveleth, MN: 19F
  • Bigfork, MN: 19F
  • Aitkin, MN: 19F
  • Cass Lake, MN: 19F
  • 3 E Wright, MN: 20F
  • 25 E Ely, MN: 20F
  • 3 E Orr, MN: 20F
  • 4 W Clam Lake, WI: 20F
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Ingredients coming together to produce some snow for Halloween, but this won’t impact the Northland.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

The extent of the cold airmass is impressive for this time of the year. If you like it warmer, your only options are the deep south or parts of the southwest U.S.; eastern U.S.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Note: High temperature in Denver, Colorado today was around 20 degrees which occurred early this morning, temperature at 3 PM this afternoon was 11 degrees! The normal high in Denver on October 29 is 60 degrees!

A closer look at Midwest temperatures from Tuesday afternoon. Single digits showing up in parts of Wyoming and Colorado this afternoon! Big time cold blast for late October.

High probabilities for below normal temperatures next week across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and anywhere you see blue colors on the map below. Source: Climate Prediction Center; https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Temperature Outlook valid November 4-8, 2019

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, October 30. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, October 30

…Weather Summary…

Highly amplified weather pattern will remain in place the next few days. A strong and deep trough covered the western US with a ridge across the southeast and eastern US.

850mb temperatures at 5 PM today ranged from -14C in northwest Minnesota to -8C in southern Minnesota.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in the Northland tonight and Wednesday with a few flurries possible.

Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s, highs on Wednesday in the upper 20s to around the freezing mark.

Winds tonight and Wednesday will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Halloween looks chilly but dry in the Northland. Highs ranging from 29 to 36 degrees, cooling to the mid 20s to around 30 degrees Thursday evening.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22. Wind southwest 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind west to southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Halloween… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind northwest 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for October 30

  • High 45
  • Low 30
  • Sunrise Wednesday 7:48 AM CDT
  • Sunset Wednesday 5:56 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Chilly! Mainly dry the next few days; dusting of snow possible Friday

Looks like will have a cold Halloween over a large part of the U.S. with temperatures on Thursday some 10 to 25 degrees below normal from the Rockies to the Central and Southern Plains into northern portions of Mexico!

Eastern US will be the warm spot this Halloween.

Note: Normal highs in the Northland on Halloween are in the low to mid 40s, looks like will have highs in the 30s this Halloween, cooling into the 20s to around 30 degrees Thursday evening.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 10.28.19; https://weathermodels.com/

A few inches of snow are likely south and east of the Northland tonight where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect (purple shaded area on map)

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Long range forecast models continue to show a break in the wet/active pattern across the upper Midwest with below normal precipitation forecast thru November 12. Generally speaking it looks like will be locked in a northwest or a west-northwest flow aloft for about the next 2 weeks which means no major storms impacting the Northland, instead will be seeing clipper type systems occasionally affecting the area starting later this week with mostly light amounts of snow or rain.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 10.28.19

Significant river flooding continues in the areas shaded in red on the map below. Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

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Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, October 29. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, October 29

…Weather Summary…

Didn’t get as much sun as I had hoped we would get today, but that isn’t too unusual this time of year as sunny days are generally few and far between in late fall.

There were some sunny breaks in the Northland today, but overall skies were mostly cloudy, and it was crisp with daytime highs in the low to mid 30s. Winds today were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Very little change is expected with our weather the next few days as a cold airmass will remain in place with 850mb temperatures of around -8 to -14C through Thursday.

Low temperatures tonight and Tuesday night are forecast to range from the upper teens to around 30 degrees with highs Tuesday in the lower 30s to around 40 degrees, highs on Wednesday mainly in the 30s.

Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies will continue tonight and Tuesday. Note: Some light snow is possible tonight in eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin, roughly along and east of a line from Shell Lake to Hurley with a dusting to an inch of snow possible tonight. The remainder of the Northland should be mainly dry through midweek, although a few flurries or snow showers are possible from time to time, but nothing widespread, and no accumulations are expected.

A cold front is forecast to move through the Northland on Friday with a little light snow or mixed precipitation possible.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 24 to 29. Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35 to 39. Wind southwest 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 33 to 37. Wind west 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for October 29

  • High 45
  • Low 30
  • Sunrise Tuesday 7:46 AM CDT
  • Sunset Tuesday 5:58 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!

Chilly week ahead. Few flurries tonight; some sun Monday

Cold air is on the move today! 60 degrees in Duluth Saturday afternoon, 40 to 45 degrees this afternoon.

Check out the 24-hour temperature change from Saturday afternoon (3 PM) to Sunday afternoon (3 PM) Some locations in the Rockies and Western High Plains are running 30 to nearly 50 degrees colder this afternoon compared to Saturday afternoon.

Source: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Temperature anomaly forecast valid from October 28 to November 2 — Greatest departures from normal covering the Rockies into the Plains (Purple and blue colors on map) Source: 12z European ensemble model 10.27.19; https://weathermodels.com/

A few inches of snow remain possible Monday night into Tuesday morning well southeast of the Northland. Source: 12z European ensemble model 10.27.19

Significant River Flood Outlook valid thru November 1, 2019. Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Low temperature forecast for Monday morning, October 28. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Monday, October 28

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Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for October 20-26, 2019

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 10/20: 64F/+14 degrees above normal
  • 10/21: 50F/+1 degree above normal
  • 10/22: 49F/Normal
  • 10/23: 47F/-1 degree below normal
  • 10/24: 45F/-3 degrees below normal
  • 10/25: 53F/+6 degrees above normal
  • 10/26: 60F/+13 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

  • 10/20: 35F/+1 degree above normal
  • 10/21: 47F/+14 degrees above normal
  • 10/22: 38F/+5 degrees above normal
  • 10/23: 36F/+3 degrees above normal
  • 10/24: 30F/-2 degrees below normal
  • 10/25: 30F/-2 degrees below normal
  • 10/26: 41F/+9 degrees above normal

Average temperature for the week of October 20: 44.6 degrees; +4.2 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

  • Total Precipitation: 1.37″
  • Normal: 0.56″
  • Departure: +0.81″ above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of Oct. 20, 2019

  • Temperature: 42.0 degrees
  • Departure: -1.3 degrees below normal
  • Precipitation: 1.42″
  • Departure: +0.99″ above normal

Temperature departure map for the week of October 20, 2019. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Precipitation departure map for the week of October 20, 2019

…Weather Summary…

Mostly cloudy and cooler in the Northland today with occasional sunny breaks along with areas of light rain showers and snow flurries. Temps this afternoon ranged from the mid 30s to mid 40s with a northwest breeze at 10 to 20 mph.

The Northland will get an extended break in any significant precipitation events this week thanks to a colder/drier airmass which will force the storm track farther to the south and east.

There will be the occasional flurry or snow shower at times tonight into early Monday, otherwise the next few days look mainly dry in our area.

Long term may turn a little more active, but these systems will be moisture starved as they originate from western Canada, result from this will be mostly light snow and or rain events beginning late this week and carrying over into next weekend with some light snowfall accumulation possible in some parts of the Northland, but doesn’t look like there will be any major winter storm impacting the Northland through the end of the month through the first few days of November.

Sky conditions through Tuesday will vary between mostly cloudy and partly cloudy, so it looks like will see at least a little bit of sunshine Monday and Tuesday.

Lows tonight and Monday night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees. Highs Monday and Tuesday mainly in the 30s.

Northwest to west winds tonight followed by southwest winds on Monday. Wind speeds of 10 to around 20 mph.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. A few flurries possible. Low 27 to 31. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest late.

.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 34 to 38. Wind southwest 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind west to southwest 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for October 28

  • High 46
  • Low 31
  • Sunrise Monday 7:45 AM CDT
  • Sunset Monday 5:59 PM CDT

Thanks for reading!