10 PM Storm Update – Blizzard continues overnight along with lakeshore flooding; foot of snow reported at the Duluth Airport

…Dangerous blizzard conditions continue Overnight in Duluth and along the North Shore…

9 PM update from MNDOT

No travel advised for the following areas

*I-35 from Duluth to Scanlon

*Highway 2 from Proctor exit to Saginaw

*Highway 33 from Saginaw to Highway 53

*Highway 53 from Cotton to Duluth

*Highway 23 from Beaudry Street to I-35

*Highway 61 from London Road to Congdon Blvd.

*Bong Bridge

*Blatnik Bridge

In Northwest Wisconsin – The Bayfield County Sheriff’s Office is advising no travel in Bayfield County.

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*City of Duluth has closed access to Park Point for non-residents. The Duluth Police Department is checking identification before the Aerial Lift Bridge.

*City officials have also closed Buchanan Street and the portion of Canal Park Drive that connects Morse Street.

*The City of Duluth advises absolutely no travel unless it is an emergency, please call 911 first. Please stay home and shelter in place until further notice.

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Highest Wind Reports since 3 PM Saturday, November 30, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Blatnik Bridge 59 mph
Duluth Airport 54 mph
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport 48 mph
Devils Island 47 mph
Superior Airport 47 mph
Duluth Harbor 45 mph
Two Harbors 45 mph
Cloquet 40 mph
Grand Marais 37 mph
Bayfield 36 mph
Ashland 36 mph

Preliminary Snowfall Reports for Saturday, November 30, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Duluth Airport: 12.5″ (total thru 10 PM Saturday)
7 ESE Superior, WI: 9.3″
2 ENE Holyoke, MN: 9.2″
1 NW Motley, MN: 9.1″
6 ENE Rice Lake, MN: 9.0″
4.1 ENE Cornucopia, WI: 8.8″
Duluth Airport: 8.5″
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 8.2″
Fort Ripley, MN: 8.0″
2 NNW Mellen, WI: 7.5″
7 ESE Superior, WI: 7.3″
2 W Duluth: 7.0″
3 SE Patzau, WI: 7.0″
1 SSW Saginaw, MN: 7.0″
Esko, MN: 6.5″
3 NE Twig, MN: 6.3″
Lake Nebagamon, WI: 6.0″
Gile, WI: 5.5″
Brule, WI: 4.8″
2 SSW Ely, MN: 4.0″
1 W Bovey, MN: 3.1″
3 E Sarona, WI: 3.0″
1 S Ely, MN: 1.0″

Really an incredible looking storm tonight. Low pressure at the surface and aloft has moved into western Iowa late this Saturday evening and continues to move slowly to the east. A rich supply of moisture is lifting north/west out of Wisconsin and into central/northern Minnesota tonight which is causing widespread snow.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

MRMS radar loop ending at 10:30 PM Saturday

Snow continues to move W-NW out of north-central Wisconsin and into northeast, north-central and east-central Minnesota late this evening.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

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…For Duluth and Superior…

-Blizzard conditions will continue Overnight with northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Snow and widespread blowing snow with whiteout conditions. Travel is not advised.

-Lakeshore flooding will continue into Sunday morning in the Canal Park area.

-Snowfall storm totals of around 15 to 25 inches by early Sunday afternoon.

-Snow gradually ends on Sunday between 10 AM-Noon.

-Strong northeast winds will become north after 8 AM Sunday and diminish to 15 to 25 mph. Note: The threat for lakeshore flooding will gradually end in Canal Park once the wind shifts from northeast to north.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

4 PM Saturday – Storm Update; Blizzard, Winter Storm and Lakeshore Flood Warnings remain in effect; Travel Not Advised in Duluth; Lakeshore flooding occurring in Canal Park

A powerful winter storm is impacting the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today.

Strong area of low pressure ~988mb was over northeast Nebraska at 3 PM today, this low along with its upper level low will track east to near Chicago, Illinois by Noon Sunday.

The dry slot over southwest Minnesota this afternoon won’t move much more to the north due to the surface low tracking east which will force the dry slot back to the south tonight.

Strong lift and moisture advection is occurring NE of the low this afternoon which is causing bands of heavy snow and or mixed precipitation and even some thunderstorms to develop this afternoon in parts of Wisconsin back into eastern, central and western Minnesota.

Trowal/backside snow affecting parts of the Dakotas today on the NW side of the low.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Here’s a loop of the same image above

-Blizzard Warning remains in effect until Noon Sunday including Silver Bay, Two Harbors and Duluth. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Travel should be restricted to emergencies only.

-City of Duluth has issued a No Travel Advisory until further notice.

-City of Duluth has closed a portion of Harbor Drive behind AMSOIL Arena, as well as the Lighthouse Parking Lot at the end of Canal Park Drive due to flooding. These areas are also closed to foot traffic

-Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Noon Sunday for all of northwest Wisconsin and for north-central, east-central into northeast Minnesota.

-Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect until 6 PM Sunday with beach erosion and flooding likely near the Lake Superior shore including Canal Park, Minnesota Point, Wisconsin Point and Fond Du Lac.

-Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM Sunday including areas near the Bad River and Saxon Harbor in northwest Wisconsin along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

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Winter Weather Alerts map as of 3:15 PM Saturday.

Red – Blizzard Warning
Pink – Winter Storm Warning

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

A few snowfall reports from Saturday, November 30, 2019. Source:https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

1 NW Motley, MN: 5.0″
Duluth Airport: 4.0″ (total thru 4 PM Saturday)
7 ESE Superior, WI: 4.0″
1 N Cloquet, MN: 2.5″
4 NW Two Harbors, MN: 2.5″
3 SSW Bruno, MN: 2.5″
5 S Herbster, WI: 1.0″

Note: Record snowfall for November 30th at Duluth, Minnesota is 10.3″ set in 1985, and the record snowfall for December 1st is also 10.3″ set in 2007.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for this storm

*15 to 25 inches of snow is possible for Two Harbors, Duluth, Cloquet, Holyoke, Superior, Solon Springs, Bayfield and Ashland.

*10 to 15 inches of snow for Silver Bay, Floodwood, Hill City, Brainerd, Aitkin, Moose Lake, Sandstone, Hinckley, Minong, Siren, Grantsburg, Shell Lake and Hayward.

*A tight snowfall gradient the farther north you go with around 6 to 10 inches of snow near Grand Rapids to 1 to 3 inches of snow for Orr, Ely and Grand Marais to less than an inch of snow along the Borderland including for International Falls.

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MRMS radar loop ending at 3:40 PM Saturday

Getting into the teeth of this storm now in Duluth as waves of heavy snow lift north/west out of Wisconsin.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

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Radar forecast through 6 PM Sunday.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model; https://weathermodels.com/

Snow continues in most of the Northland tonight.

Snow will gradually diminish Sunday morning-early afternoon from NW-SE.

Links to Road Conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin: https://511wi.gov/

Links to Power Outage maps

Minnesota Power: https://www.mnpower.com/OutageCenter/OutageMap

Lake Country Power: http://outage.lcp.coop/#viewer-menu-parent

Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, November 30. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Sunday, December 1.

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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

*Blizzard Warning* for Duluth until Noon Sunday.

*Winter Storm Warning for Superior until Noon Sunday.

*Lakeshore Flood Warning until 6 PM Sunday.

-Do not travel tonight unless it’s an emergency.

-Strong northeast winds 25 to 45 mph combined with falling snow will cause widespread blowing snow and BLIZZARD conditions tonight into early Sunday morning.

-Winds will diminish and shift to the north mid to late Sunday morning.

-Snow is forecast to diminish/end between 9 AM and Noon Sunday.

-Potential for 15 to 25 inches of snow by early Sunday afternoon.

-This snow will be wet, and combined with strong winds may lead to downed trees, powerlines and some power outages tonight into Sunday morning.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

4 AM Saturday – Winter Storm Update

Powerful winter storm to affect most of the Northland through Sunday morning.

No changes to the winter weather alerts – See prior post for a map of the active alerts.

Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Duluth until Noon Sunday while a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Superior until Noon Sunday. Note: It’s possible the winter storm warning for the South Shore including the city of Superior is upgraded to a blizzard warning sometime today.

Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect from Noon today until 6 PM Sunday with lakeshore flooding, beach and shoreline erosion possible in Canal Park, Minnesota Point, Wisconsin Point and Fond Du Lac.

Lakeshore Flood Warning has been issued for the South Shore of Lake Superior including for areas near the Bad River and Saxon Harbor. This warning is in effect from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM Sunday.

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The first wave of snow is lifting north across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin early this Saturday morning.

Radar loop below through 3:40 AM Saturday.

Source: MRMS radar; https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Not making any changes to my snowfall forecast early this morning, but I am a little concerned that my totals are too high in far northern Minnesota, roughly from around Bigfork to Babbitt and north from there, but I’ll hold off until this afternoon before making any big changes to my forecast.

-Snowfall accumulations of around 1 to 3 inches are possible through early this afternoon in Duluth and Superior. Gusty east winds 15 to 30 mph will cause areas of blowing snow.

-The most intense portion of this storm in the Twin Ports is forecast to begin mid to late Saturday afternoon and continue through Saturday night and into early Sunday morning (roughly from ~3 PM Saturday to ~8 AM Sunday) This is when snowfall rates of 1 to possibly 2 inches per hour are expected to occur along with wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph out of the east-northeast. Blizzard conditions should develop by late this afternoon.

-Travel will be extremely difficult to impossible in Duluth by late this afternoon and should remain that way into Sunday morning.

-Power outages are possible due to the strong winds and heavy wet snowfall.

Tim

Thanks for reading!

Powerful Winter Storm to hit the Northland this weekend; Blizzard, Winter Storm and Lakeshore Flood Warnings in effect

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for this weekend’s winter storm.

*15 to 25 inches of snow near Lake Superior including for Two Harbors, Duluth, Superior, Solon Springs, Port Wing, Bayfield and Ashland.

*10 to 15 inches of snow for Silver Bay, Floodwood, Hill City, Brainerd, Aitkin, Moose Lake, Sandstone, Hinckley, Siren, Shell Lake and Hayward.

*6 to 10 inches of snow for Walker, Grand Rapids, Bigfork, Hibbing and Tofte.

*3 to 6 inches of snow for Orr, Ely and Grand Marais.

*1 to 3 inches of snow along the Borderland including International Falls.

Note: About the only thing I’m seeing in model data that could decrease snow amounts by a few inches would be if mixed precipitation (ice) develops for a few hours on Saturday, otherwise the computer models have changed very little over the last few days for this storm.

Great info. posted by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note: The Experimental Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) puts this weekend’s storm into the Moderate to Major impacts risk categories with Extreme impacts for some areas near Lake Superior. Link to the WSSI – https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wssi.php

NWS Duluth weather alerts map as of 4:27 PM Friday

Red – Blizzard Warning
Pink – Winter Storm Warning
Purple – Winter Weather Advisory

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Here’s a zoomed in look at the Blizzard Warning.

Note: Travel will become very difficult to impossible Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in the Twin Ports and along the North Shore including Highway 61.

A wider view of all the weather alerts that are in effect.

Red – Blizzard Warning
Pink – Winter Storm Warning
Purple – Winter Weather Advisory

Source: https://www.pivotalweather.com/

Links to Road Conditions

Minnesota: https://lb.511mn.org/
Wisconsin: https://511wi.gov/

Power Outage Maps

Minnesota Power: https://www.mnpower.com/OutageCenter/OutageMap

Lake Country Power: http://outage.lcp.coop/#viewer-menu-parent
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The combination of strong ENE winds, wave heights building to 10 feet or more along with high lake levels could lead to lakeshore flooding, beach and shoreline erosion from Saturday afternoon through Sunday near Lake Superior including the Canal Park area and other low lying shoreline areas.

Lakeshore Flood Warning for the green shaded area on the map.

Here’s a look at the precipitation type forecast for this weekend’s storm.

Source: 12z European model 11.29.19; https://weathermodels.com/

Snow is forecast to spread into southern portions of the Northland by late tonight while some lake effect snow showers develop along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Snow reaches Duluth and Superior ~4 to 6 AM Saturday.

Snow continues to lift farther north through Saturday morning and gets closer to the Borderland by around Noon.

The entire Northland should be getting snow by Saturday evening.

Snow continues Saturday night.

Still snowing Sunday morning.

Snow tapers off from NW-SE Sunday afternoon.

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Goes-16 water vapor loop from Friday, November 29, 2019.

Our weekend winter storm is over the Rockies today and will move slowly out into the Plains on Saturday. This storm looks very impressive on satellite imagery today.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move east-northeast out of the Rockies tonight, this low will track south of Minnesota on Saturday, and is forecast to move into Southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. Central pressure of this low is forecast to range from ~986mb to ~996mb through Sunday.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Low pressure to the west with deep southerly flow ahead of this low which is able to tap into a rich supply of gulf moisture. This moisture will make it into the Northland on Saturday where it interacts with colder air resulting in widespread snow this weekend.

Low temperature forecast for Saturday morning, November 30. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Saturday, November 30.

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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

***Blizzard Warning*** for Duluth 6 AM Saturday to Noon Sunday.

***Winter Storm Warning*** for Superior 6 AM Saturday to Noon Sunday.

***Lakeshore Flood Warning*** 12 PM Saturday to 6 PM Sunday.

-Patchy freezing drizzle possible tonight with increasing east to northeast winds at 15 to 25 mph.

-Snow is forecast to begin in the Twin Ports around 4 to 6 AM Saturday.

-Snow through the day Saturday into Saturday night. Note: There could be a few breaks in the snow during the day Saturday, and if or when that happens precipitation could transition to some freezing drizzle.

-Heaviest snow is expected from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning, and this is when blizzard conditions are expected to develop.

-Travel will be difficult to impossible Saturday into Sunday morning.

-East to northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph Saturday into early Sunday.

-The combination of strong winds and wet snow may cause power outages.

-Lakeshore flooding could develop in Canal Park and other low lying shoreline areas from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Tim

Thanks for reading!

Blizzard Warning issued for Duluth and North Shore from 6 AM Saturday to Noon Sunday; Winter Storm Warnings and Watches elsewhere; Powerful winter storm on the way!

Blizzard Warning (red shaded area on map) is in effect from 6 AM Saturday to Noon Sunday including Duluth, Two Harbors and Silver Bay.

-Winds gusting to 40 mph with visibilities dropping below a quarter mile.

-Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibilities.

-Blizzard conditions will largely be found within 5 to 10 miles inland of Lake Superior.

-Travel should be restricted to emergencies only.

Lakeshore Flood Warning in effect from Noon Saturday to 6 PM Sunday (green shaded area on map)

-Lakeshore flooding is expected in Canal Park and other low lying shoreline areas. Beach and shoreline erosion is also expected.

Prolonged period of east-northeast winds is expected beginning today and lasting through Sunday morning. Strongest winds Saturday into early Sunday with wind gusts of 25-45 mph. Wave heights building to over 10 feet. Water should pile up along the western shore of Lake Superior.

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National Weather Service Duluth weather alerts map as of 4:20 AM Friday, November 29, 2019.

Red – Blizzard Warning
Pink – Winter Storm Warning
Blue – Winter Storm Watch

The warnings and watches are in effect from Saturday morning through Sunday for the potential of heavy snow, some mixed precipitation and blowing snow.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Here’s my snowfall forecast for this weekend’s storm, I’ll have an updated forecast later today, but overall not expecting any major changes to my forecast, but probably will need to increase the snow amounts a bit in the 6-10 inch zone.

Links to Road Conditions

Minnesota: https://lb.511mn.org/
Wisconsin: https://511wi.gov/
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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

Patchy light snow and flurries along with some patchy light freezing drizzle are possible today into this evening. Snowfall accumulations less than an inch. Winds east to northeast 10 to 20 mph.

Steadier snow is expected to arrive late tonight or during the day Saturday.

Heaviest snow Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning.

Snow tapers off Sunday afternoon.

East to northeast winds increasing to 20 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph from late tonight through early Sunday morning.

Considerable blowing snow developing Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning with blizzard conditions especially within 5 to 10 miles inland of Lake Superior.

Lakeshore flooding is expected in Canal Park from Saturday afternoon through the day Sunday.

This will be a wet snow which combined with the strong winds may lead to some downed trees/limbs with some power outages possible this weekend.

Total snowfall accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are possible by Sunday afternoon in the Twin Ports.

More updates later today.

Thanks for reading!