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4 PM Saturday – Storm Update; Blizzard, Winter Storm and Lakeshore Flood Warnings remain in effect; Travel Not Advised in Duluth; Lakeshore flooding occurring in Canal Park

A powerful winter storm is impacting the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today.

Strong area of low pressure ~988mb was over northeast Nebraska at 3 PM today, this low along with its upper level low will track east to near Chicago, Illinois by Noon Sunday.

The dry slot over southwest Minnesota this afternoon won’t move much more to the north due to the surface low tracking east which will force the dry slot back to the south tonight.

Strong lift and moisture advection is occurring NE of the low this afternoon which is causing bands of heavy snow and or mixed precipitation and even some thunderstorms to develop this afternoon in parts of Wisconsin back into eastern, central and western Minnesota.

Trowal/backside snow affecting parts of the Dakotas today on the NW side of the low.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Here’s a loop of the same image above

-Blizzard Warning remains in effect until Noon Sunday including Silver Bay, Two Harbors and Duluth. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Travel should be restricted to emergencies only.

-City of Duluth has issued a No Travel Advisory until further notice.

-City of Duluth has closed a portion of Harbor Drive behind AMSOIL Arena, as well as the Lighthouse Parking Lot at the end of Canal Park Drive due to flooding. These areas are also closed to foot traffic

-Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Noon Sunday for all of northwest Wisconsin and for north-central, east-central into northeast Minnesota.

-Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect until 6 PM Sunday with beach erosion and flooding likely near the Lake Superior shore including Canal Park, Minnesota Point, Wisconsin Point and Fond Du Lac.

-Lakeshore Flood Warning remains in effect from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM Sunday including areas near the Bad River and Saxon Harbor in northwest Wisconsin along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

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Winter Weather Alerts map as of 3:15 PM Saturday.

Red – Blizzard Warning
Pink – Winter Storm Warning

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

A few snowfall reports from Saturday, November 30, 2019. Source:https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

1 NW Motley, MN: 5.0″
Duluth Airport: 4.0″ (total thru 4 PM Saturday)
7 ESE Superior, WI: 4.0″
1 N Cloquet, MN: 2.5″
4 NW Two Harbors, MN: 2.5″
3 SSW Bruno, MN: 2.5″
5 S Herbster, WI: 1.0″

Note: Record snowfall for November 30th at Duluth, Minnesota is 10.3″ set in 1985, and the record snowfall for December 1st is also 10.3″ set in 2007.

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for this storm

*15 to 25 inches of snow is possible for Two Harbors, Duluth, Cloquet, Holyoke, Superior, Solon Springs, Bayfield and Ashland.

*10 to 15 inches of snow for Silver Bay, Floodwood, Hill City, Brainerd, Aitkin, Moose Lake, Sandstone, Hinckley, Minong, Siren, Grantsburg, Shell Lake and Hayward.

*A tight snowfall gradient the farther north you go with around 6 to 10 inches of snow near Grand Rapids to 1 to 3 inches of snow for Orr, Ely and Grand Marais to less than an inch of snow along the Borderland including for International Falls.

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MRMS radar loop ending at 3:40 PM Saturday

Getting into the teeth of this storm now in Duluth as waves of heavy snow lift north/west out of Wisconsin.

Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com/

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Radar forecast through 6 PM Sunday.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model; https://weathermodels.com/

Snow continues in most of the Northland tonight.

Snow will gradually diminish Sunday morning-early afternoon from NW-SE.

Links to Road Conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin: https://511wi.gov/

Links to Power Outage maps

Minnesota Power: https://www.mnpower.com/OutageCenter/OutageMap

Lake Country Power: http://outage.lcp.coop/#viewer-menu-parent

Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning, November 30. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Sunday, December 1.

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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

*Blizzard Warning* for Duluth until Noon Sunday.

*Winter Storm Warning for Superior until Noon Sunday.

*Lakeshore Flood Warning until 6 PM Sunday.

-Do not travel tonight unless it’s an emergency.

-Strong northeast winds 25 to 45 mph combined with falling snow will cause widespread blowing snow and BLIZZARD conditions tonight into early Sunday morning.

-Winds will diminish and shift to the north mid to late Sunday morning.

-Snow is forecast to diminish/end between 9 AM and Noon Sunday.

-Potential for 15 to 25 inches of snow by early Sunday afternoon.

-This snow will be wet, and combined with strong winds may lead to downed trees, powerlines and some power outages tonight into Sunday morning.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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