Milder Wednesday and Thursday; some light snow/patchy freezing rain possible Wednesday afternoon-night

Tonight and Wednesday morning look dry in the Northland, but some light snow or possibly some patchy freezing rain could develop in parts of the area from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as low pressure approaches from the NW along with its warm front and cold front. Not expecting much snow accumulation with this system as snowfall totals range from a dusting to around 2 inches while a light glaze of ice accumulation is possible especially over southern portions of the Northland.

Here’s my snowfall forecast for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

Radar forecast valid from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday. Blue=Snow, Pink=Mix precipitation.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 12.31.19

Snowfall Reports from around the Northland
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Event Date: December 30, 2019

Gile, WI: 13.5″
1 NW Hurley, WI: 11.0″
3 SW Bayfield, WI: 7.3″
5 S Herbster, WI: 6.0″
Hovland, MN: 5.8″
Grand View, WI: 5.5″
Ashland, WI: 5.1″
1 W Washburn, WI: 4.8″
4 SSE Webster, WI: 4.0″
1 WSW Maple, WI: 4.0″
6 NE Hertel, WI: 3.5″
5 WSW Ino, WI: 3.5″
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 1.8″
7 ESE Superior, WI: 1.7″
1 Ely, MN: 1.4″
3 ENE Holyoke, MN: 1.3″
Duluth Airport: 1.1″

2019 was slightly warmer and wetter than normal at Duluth, Minnesota – Preliminary yearly stats for 2019 (thru Dec. 30th)

Average temperature: 40.2F; Departure +0.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation: 34.21″; Departure +3.25″ above normal

Note: 2019 will go into the record books as the 25th wettest year on record in Duluth dating back to 1871.

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January begins on Wednesday, here are the climate normals for January at Duluth, Minnesota.

Average temperature 10.2 degrees
Record highest 23.7 degrees set in 2006
Record lowest -7.2 degrees set in 1912

Normal high on the 1st: 19 degrees
Normal high on the 31st: 20 degrees

Normal low on the 1st: 3 degrees
Normal low on the 31st: 2 degrees

Precipitation 0.96″
Record highest 4.70″ set in 1969
Record lowest 0.13″ set in 2008

Snowfall 19.4″
Record highest 46.8″ set in 1969
Record lowest 2.0″ set in 1921

Number of days with at least 0.1″ snowfall: 12

Number of days with at least 1.0″ snowfall: 4

Number of days with a subzero low temperature: 15

It does look a little colder next week, with perhaps a quick shot of arctic air affecting the Northland, but overall temperatures don’t look terribly cold next week especially considering that we’re heading into the coldest part of winter.

Source: 12z European ensemble model 12.31.19; https://weathermodels.com/

Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, January 1, 2020. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Wednesday, January 1, 2020.

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Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 3 to 8. Wind west around 10 mph.

.New Year’s Day… Increasing cloudiness. Some light snow possible later in the day. High 25 to 30. Wind south to southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday night… Mostly cloudy. Some light snow possible. Total accumulations of an inch or less. Low 25 to 30. Wind south to southwest 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind west 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for January 1

High 19
Low 3

Sunrise Wednesday 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday 4:31 PM CST

Thanks for reading, and Happy New Year!

Tim

Some snow and blowing snow tonight; colder, near normal temps for Tuesday with some sunshine!

Took a while for the steadier snow to reach Duluth today, but it finally did late this afternoon, and it should continue to snow through the evening before tapering off later tonight. This won’t be a blockbuster snowstorm in Duluth (never was suppose to be) but there should be enough snow to cause some travel issues tonight into Tuesday morning especially with the colder temperatures that have moved in which has led to wet/slushy roads refreezing, then you throw in a few inches of fluffy snow tonight and you have the makings for some tricky travel conditions with snow/ice covered roads.

4:50 PM Radar image – Snow is moving south/southwest across the Northland early this evening with heavier snowfall in purple colors.

*Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until Midnight tonight including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Duluth, Cloquet, Moose Lake, Hinckely, Grantsburg, Spooner and Hayward.

*Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM Tuesday including the cities of Superior, Washburn and Bayfield.

*Winter Storm Warning in effect until Noon Tuesday including the cities of Ashland, Gile and Hurley.

*Winter Weather Advisory in effect until Midnight tonight including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Hibbing, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Hill City, Aitkin, Brainerd and Walker.

*Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced visibilities due to snow and areas of blowing snow.

*Travel could be very difficult to impossible along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Note: There’s been reports of 1 to 3 inches of snow today (thru 4 PM) in parts of northwest Wisconsin per NWS Duluth storm reports.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Road Conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/

Here is my updated snowfall forecast through 6 AM Tuesday.

*5 to 8 inches of snow with locally higher amounts possible along the South Shore including Port Wing, Bayfield, Ashland and Gile.

*3 to 5 inches of snow in the Arrowhead, North Shore into most of northwest Wisconsin including Grand Marais, Silver Bay, Two Harbors, Solon Springs, Holyoke, Minong and Hayward.

*1 to 3 inches of snow for Ely, Hibbing, Duluth, Superior, Cloquet, Moose Lake and Sandstone.

*An inch or less of snow for far western portions of the Northland from International Falls to Grand Rapids to Aitkin.

18z NAM-WRF model radar forecast valid until Noon Tuesday.

Snow (blue colors on map) will continue this evening in parts of the Northland. Snow ends from W-E later this evening/overnight except along the South Shore of Lake Superior where lake effect snow showers will continue into early Tuesday afternoon while the rest of the area sees some sun break out.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

A strong area of low pressure was located over eastern Upper Michigan/southeast Lake Superior late this afternoon. This low will move slowly E-NE through Tuesday (red line=storm track)

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

The second part of this winter storm is lifting north out of lower Michigan today. Quite the system with a plume of moisture stretching from the Atlantic Ocean into eastern/central Canada, and south into the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Low temperature forecast for Tuesday morning, December 31. Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, December 31.

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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

*Winter Storm Warning for Duluth until Midnight tonight*

*Winter Storm Warning for Superior until 6 AM Tuesday*

-Light snow with some blowing snow tonight. Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Colder tonight with lows in the teens. Winds out of the northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

-Some sunshine returns Tuesday with highs around 20 degrees which is close to normal for the final day of December. Winds northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Snow on the way for Monday with falling temperatures; Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect

-Winter Storm Warning (pink) in effect until Midnight Monday night including the cities of Ely, Hibbing, Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.

-Winter Storm Warning in effect until Midnight tonight including International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker and Pine River. Note: These same areas are under a Winter Weather Advisory which is in effect from Midnight tonight to Midnight Monday night.

-Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 AM Monday to Midnight Monday night including Duluth, Hinckley, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Superior, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Spooner and Hayward.

-Winter Weather Advisory (purple) in effect from Midnight tonight to Midnight Monday night including Brainerd, Hill City and Aitkin.

*Plan on slippery road conditions.

*Travel could be very difficult to impossible in the warning area on Monday. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

*Snow and blowing snow combined with gusty winds on Monday will produce periods of low visibility.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Here’s my snowfall forecast for part two of this winter storm. Totals are through 6 AM Tuesday with the bulk of this snow falling on Monday into Monday night.

*10 to 12 inches of snow for Hurley and Gile, and just east of Ashland.

*6 to 10 inches of snow for Ashland, Port Wing, Solon Springs and Holyoke.

*4 to 6 inches of snow for Ely, Grand Marais, Silver Bay, Two Harbors, Duluth, Superior, Cloquet, Moose Lake and Sandstone.

*A range of 1 to 4 inches of snow for western areas including International Falls, Grand Rapids, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hibbing and Cook.

This has been a very complex storm system. The original low is still over southwest Minnesota late this afternoon and will drift E-SE, more or less hugging the Minnesota-Iowa state line through Monday morning while a secondary low spins up over southern Wisconsin, this low becomes the dominant low on Monday as it lifts north and even a bit northwest, reaching eastern portions of Lake Superior by Tuesday morning.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

A classic storm with warm air on one side of low pressure (red L on map) cold air on the backside of the low.

Source: RTMA model; https://lab.weathermodels.com/

Dry slot remains over the Northland this afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. Note: Dry air shows up as yellow colors on this map, while the blue, white and green colors indicate moisture. Eventually will see the moisture to our east get pulled back to the west, this should happen by late tonight or Monday.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Light rain, wet snow and a wintry mix of precipitation will linger across the Northland tonight with steadier snow expected on Monday in northeast and east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin (blue colors on map)

Snow is expected to taper off Monday night from W-E, but lake effect snow showers will continue into early Tuesday afternoon along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Source: 18z NAM-WRF model 12.29.19; https://weathermodels.com/

Additional Snowfall Reports from around the Northland

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Event Dates: December 28-29, 2019

Bigfork, MN: 12.5″
1 NW Chisholm, MN: 10.4″
1 NNW Big Falls, MN: 9.2″
6 E Island Lake, MN: 9.2″
5 NW Walker, MN: 9.0″
1 NNE Hibbing, MN: 8.0″
5 SW Crane Lake, MN: 7.0″
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 6.3″
2 SSW Ely, MN: 6.0″
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Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota for December 22-28, 2019

High Temperature/Departure from Normal

12/22: 39F/+19 degrees above normal
12/23: 31F/+11 degrees above normal
12/24: 32F/+12 degrees above normal
12/25: 34F/+14 degrees above normal
12/26: 33F/+13 degrees above normal
12/27: 28F/+8 degrees above normal
12/28: 33F/+13 degrees above normal

Low Temperature/Departure from Normal

12/22: 23F/+18 degrees above normal
12/23: 24F/+19 degrees above normal
12/24: 28F/+24 degrees above normal
12/25: 31F/+27 degrees above normal
12/26: 24F/+20 degrees above normal
12/27: 20F/+16 degrees above normal
12/28: 19F/+16 degrees above normal

Note: Average temperature in Duluth for the week of December 22nd: 28.5 degrees; +16.5 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/

Total Precipitation: 0.69″
Normal: 0.26″
Departure: +0.43″ above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of December 22nd, 2019.

Temperature: 28.1 degrees
Departure: +14.6 degrees above normal

Precipitation: 0.16″
Departure: -0.04″ below normal

Average temperature, departure from mean for the week of December 22nd, 2019. Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Total precipitation, departure from mean for the week of December 22nd, 2019.

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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

*Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 AM Monday to Midnight Monday night*

*Lakeshore Flood Warning in effect until 10 PM tonight*

-Fog and drizzle with occasional light rain, sleet and wet snow tonight. Snowfall accumulations under an inch through 7 AM Monday.

-Snow develops during the day Monday with most of the snow coming Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Some rain, drizzle or sleet is still possible before Noon.

-Total snowfall accumulations by late Monday night of 4 to 6 inches.

-Temperatures of 32 to 36 degrees tonight. Temperatures falling into the 20s Monday afternoon/early evening.

-East to northeast winds 15 to 30 mph this evening with gusts to 40 mph. Winds diminish to 10 to 15 mph overnight, then will increase to 15 to 25 mph on Monday with winds shifting to the north-northwest.

-Areas of blowing snow developing on Monday.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Sunday morning weather update; rain, drizzle, fog, wind and mixed precipitation continues in the Northland; Lakeshore Flood Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, Watches and Advisories in effect

9 AM Sunday – Duluth city officials have closed off access to Park Point for non-residents due to flooding concerns.

9 AM Sunday – Following roads in Duluth are closed due to flooding.

-A portion of Harbor Drive behind Amsoil Arena.

-The Lighthouse parking lot near Grandma’s Saloon and Grill.

*Lakeshore Flood Warning in effect until 6 PM today

Snow in blue and purple colors, rain in green. Precipitation is moving to the N-NW.

*Winter Storm Warning (pink) in effect through this evening for parts of north-central and northeast Minnesota including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker, Hibbing, Ely, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.

*Winter Storm Watch (blue) in effect from Monday morning through Monday evening for northwest Wisconsin and a small part of eastern Minnesota including the cities of Superior, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Spooner, Hayward, Sandstone and Hinckley.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Rain-Snow line will continue to shift farther north through the afternoon but a few more inches of snow will likely accumulate before this happens in northern Minnesota and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior (Higher Terrain areas)

Strong low pressure over southwestern Minnesota will remain nearly stationary through this evening.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Surface temps continue to warm this morning, and this trend should continue through tonight, in fact I think will remain above freezing in Duluth through mid/late Monday morning before temperatures drop later Monday afternoon.

Dry slot shows up nicely on the 700mb map this morning. Green colors indicate moisture.

A massive dry slot continues to work north/northwest into the Northland late this morning, what this dry slot will do is shut-off the heavy/widespread precipitation, but will still see bands of lighter precipitation along with fog and drizzle in our area through tonight.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

Wind Reports from around the Northland
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Event Date: December 29, 2019

Duluth Airport: 63 mph
Blatnik Bridge: 59 mph
Duluth Harbor: 57 mph
Cloquet, MN: 49 mph
Two Harbors, MN: 49 mph
Grand Marais, MN: 45 mph
Saginaw, MN: 41 mph
Ashland, WI: 38 mph
Superior, WI: 38 mph
Esko, MN: 37 mph
Hayward, WI: 37 mph
Northome, MN: 36 mph
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 33 mph
International Falls, MN: 30 mph
Snowfall Reports from around the Northland
Source:

Event Dates: December 28-29, 2019

1 NW Chisholm, MN: 9.2″
1 W Side Lake, MN: 9.0″
7 NNW Two Harbors, MN: 8.8″
3 N Canyon, MN: 8.0″
8 NNW Coleraine, MN: 7.0″
3 S Finland, MN: 7.0″
2 S Brimson, MN: 6.6″
2 SSE Pine River, MN: 6.0″
Duluth Airport: 5.5″
3 N Brainerd, MN: 4.5″
3 WSW Grand Marais, MN: 3.5″
5 NNE Brule, WI: 1.2″

Power Outage Maps

Minnesota Power: https://www.mnpower.com/OutageCenter/OutageMap

Lake Country Power: http://outage.lcp.coop/#viewer-menu-parent

Road Conditions

Minnesota: https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin: https://511wi.gov/

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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

*Winter Storm Watch for Superior from Monday morning through Monday evening*

*Lakeshore Flood Warning until 6 PM today*

-Dense fog and drizzle through Monday morning.

-Occasional light rain today and tonight with patchy freezing rain/freezing drizzle possible especially over the hill in Duluth.

-Some light rain or a wintry mix is possible Monday morning with precipitation becoming all snow Monday afternoon.

-Temperatures ranging from 32 to 37 degrees through Monday morning.

-No additional snowfall accumulation is expected through Monday morning.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

Saturday evening Winter Storm Update (December 28, 2019) Lakeshore Flood Warning, Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect

Snowfall Reports through 5 PM Saturday, December 28, 2019. Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

1 NW Foxboro, WI: 4.0″
Duluth Airport: 3.3″
Brainerd, MN: 3.0″
Willow River, MN: 3.0″
2 SSW Moose Lake, MN: 2.6″
4 NW Two Harbors, MN: 2.6″
Sandstone, MN: 2.5″
3 N Brainerd, MN: 2.3″
3 SSW Superior, WI: 2.0″
3 W Lester Park, MN: 1.0″
4 SE Superior, WI: 1.0″

-Winter Storm Warning (pink) in effect for much of north-central and northeast Minnesota including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker, Brainerd, Hill City, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais. This warning is in effect through 6 AM Monday, except the corridor from Brainerd to Duluth where the warning goes until 10 AM Sunday.

-Winter Weather Advisory (purple) for all of northwest Wisconsin and a small part of eastern Minnesota including the cities of Superior, Ashland, Siren, Spooner, Hayward and Hinckley. This advisory is in effect until 9 PM tonight in southern areas, and until 2 AM Sunday for northern areas.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Here’s my updated snowfall forecast through 6 PM Sunday.

*Increased amounts to 10 to 15 inches for the North Shore (Higher Terrain areas) due to possible heavy lake enhanced snow through Sunday with east to northeast winds coming off Lake Superior.

*6 to 10 inches of snow for International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Walker, Brainerd, Aitkin, Hibbing, Cook, Ely, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais and the north side of Duluth (over the hill)

*3 to 6 inches of snow for Moose Lake, Cloquet, Superior and the south side of Duluth (below the hill)

*1 to 3 inches of snow for Sandstone, Solon Springs and Bayfield.

Note: Additional snow accumulations are expected in much of the Northland Monday into Tuesday with amounts of at least 4 inches looking like a good bet.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory has been upgraded to a Lakeshore Flood Warning which is in effect from Midnight tonight to 6 PM Sunday.

Lakeshore flooding expected in the Canal Park and Park Point areas.

18z HRRR model radar forecast valid through 8 PM Sunday.

Widespread snow (blue) rain (green) and mixed precipitation (pink) will continue in the Northland through Sunday morning.

Dry slot lifts north during the day Sunday causing the widespread precipitation to transition to drizzle or scattered showers, this occurs from south to north across the Northland from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Source: https://weathermodels.com/

Quite the storm lifting north out of the Plains today per water vapor imagery.

Source: https://weather.cod.edu/

I’ll be keeping an eye on the freezing line (purple dash line on the map below) Temperatures should slowly warm overnight through Sunday morning with the freezing line inching north/west and further into the Northland.

Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

The amount of moisture streaming north into the upper Midwest is near or at record levels for this time of the year.

Radar loop ending at 5:30 PM CT, Saturday, December 28, 2019.

Snow in blue, rain in green, wintry mix in pink.

Source: https://www.wunderground.com/

The risk for scattered power outages may increase in the Twin Ports and along the North Shore of Lake Superior late tonight through the day Sunday due to strong east to northeast winds. The potential for widespread power outages would increase further if significant ice accumulations develop (At least one quarter inch)

Power Outage maps

Minnesota Power – https://www.mnpower.com/OutageCenter/OutageMap

Lake Country Power – http://outage.lcp.coop/#viewer-menu-parent

Road Conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/

Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/

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Outlook for Duluth and Superior

*Winter Storm warning for Duluth until 10 AM Sunday*

*Winter Weather Advisory for Superior until 2 AM Sunday*

-Wet snow mixed with sleet, freezing rain and rain will continue into Sunday morning with temperatures of 30 to 33 degrees.

-East to northeast winds will increase to 20 to 40 mph by late tonight. Wind gusts could approach 50-60 mph Sunday morning.

-Strong east to northeast winds will continue Sunday afternoon with gusts 25 to around 40 mph.

-Widespread precipitation transitions to drizzle and scattered showers Sunday afternoon/evening.

-Areas of fog through Sunday evening.

-Total snowfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over the hill in Duluth to 3 to 6 inches below the hill in Duluth and also for Superior.

-Sleet accumulations are also possible through Sunday morning, and some ice accumulations are possible as well if freezing rain occurs.

Thanks for reading!

Tim